2008 Michigan State Football By the Numbers

The big numbers tell the Michigan State football story as the regular season comes to a close. Last year's group was a 7-6 team. Those that returned played a slightly tougher schedule in 2008 and have come out with (so far) a 9-3 record.

That alone appears as big progress, but in Big Ten conference games, the changes are more dramatic: A 3-5 record became 6-2 against exactly the same slate of teams.

Iowa and Northwestern illustrate this last point. Each was a 6-6 team a year ago with no bowl prospects, yet both defeated Michigan State. This year, both had markedly improved records (17-7 combined) and will go to bowl games. Yet this time both were beaten by the Spartans—soundly beaten, in the case of 9-3 Northwestern.

But some interesting nuance creeps up in the smaller statistics, particularly when you focus on just the eight Big Ten conference games over each season. It bodes well for next season.

Last year, Michigan State had the best scoring offense in the conference while winning those three conference games. This year, they'd fallen to sixth-best. Likewise, scoring defense last year was a dismal ninth, but improved to only seventh this year.

On and on this trend goes for every meaningful statistic. Total offense and defense last year were first and seventh, respectively; both fell to eighth this year. Red zone offense was first, but now third; red zone defense was seventh and is now 10th.

Last year's +2 turnover margin became this year's -1. For perspective, Ohio State finished first at +12.

For all of the deserved praise about Javon Ringer's running, he was just one man carrying the entire workload for a run-based offensive attack. The result was a 10th-place finish out of 11 teams for rushing yards. Last year, with the very able Jehuu Caulcrick sharing the load, the Spartans' rush offense was third. The difference was more than 80 yards per Big Ten game.

How do those mediocre-to-awful conference stats in nearly every major category, with many of them showing declines from last year's team that won just three conference games, translate into twice that many wins this year?

Unlike every other top team, third place Michigan State played all of the other toughest Big Ten teams this year: fifth place Iowa and co-champ Ohio State didn't meet; neither did fourth place Northwestern and co-champ Penn State. Every other team that played at least four of the top five finished with far fewer wins.

The stats are thus deceptive. The Spartans came within one game of navigating one of the toughest schedules in the conference to a share of the title. Throw out the horrible numbers from the blowout defeats against the co-champs, and the picture improves dramatically.

What does this mean moving forward?

In Mark Dantonio's first season, inheriting mostly somebody else's players, just 12 of 22 starters came back and the team won seven games. This year, 13 of 22 starters returned and they won (so far) nine games. Next season, it appears that 14 of 22 starters will return with two solid years of experience playing under this coach.

By contrast, Penn State returned 18 of 22 starters this year from a team that won nine games, and Ohio State returned 19 of 22 from a team that won 11 games.

Both of the programs sharing the title this year have stable leadership, have won nine or more games each of the previous three seasons, and were in no way having a "rebuilding" period remotely comparable to what Michigan State has been going through. They were supposed to dominate games this year. The only real surprise is those games where they failed to do so.

But going forward, the Buckeyes could lose as many as 10 starters next year, and the Nittany Lions 12. Both will likely still be good, but neither is likely to replicate what happened this season. The 2009 Big Ten race is wide open.

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