It's been a tale of two completely different seasons for the Kansas Jayhawks the last two years. 2007 was a fairytale for KU, with the team going 12-1 and winning the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech. Expectations were high coming into 2008, with many starters returning, including star quarterback Todd Reesing.
But this season hasn't gone as planned for Mark Mangino and the Jayhawks. KU has faced a significantly harder schedule, and while they've only lost a few players, those losses have been big. Kansas has stumbled to a 6-5 record and has lost four of their last five games.
But heading into their 11:30 showdown against Missouri this weekend in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, the Jayhawks will surely look to end their regular season on a high note. The Tigers and Jayhawks are bitter rivals, and both teams can greatly enhance their bowl eligibility with a win.
To be frank, this game means much less in the overall scheme of Missouri's season. The Tigers have already wrapped up the Big 12 North and have nine wins, more than enough to qualify for a respectable bowl. But 10 wins is a much nicer number than nine, and the Tigers look to keep bragging rights over Kansas for the third straight year.
Here are five keys to Missouri not only winning the game, but also gathering momentum heading into the Big 12 title game.
5. Chase Coffman
Chase Coffman hasn't played in four weeks, but he is still believed to be plagued by a sprained toe. Gary Pinkel has claimed he'll play, but then again, that's been the story in Missouri's last two games.
If Chase isn't 100 percent, he should NOT play. Missouri will absolutely need Coffman to have any chance in the Big 12 title game. They can beat KU without him. What Pinkel does with Coffman could dictate how Mizzou's season ends.
4. Throw the rock
KU's struggles against the pass have been well-documented this season, ranking 111th, something that obviously favors Missouri. Their run defense is fairly strong at 34th in the country, but if they can't stop Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and the rest of Missouri's spread attack, the game could get out of reach early.
Mizzou hasn't played the pass extremely well, but for direct matchups, look to the Nebraska and Iowa State games. Both teams passed much better against KU than Missouri. Pinkel and offensive coordinator Dave Christensen will look to expose KU's struggling secondary.
3. Win the turnover battle
Todd Reesing has 10 interceptions on the year, Chase Daniel 11. Both players will have to cut down on these numbers for their teams to win the game, Reesing especially. Kansas has run the ball well against lesser teams, but overall their run game has struggled.
Last year's Border War Showdown was swung in a big way when William Moore picked off a Reesing pass in the Kansas red zone. Turnovers could play a similar role this season if either team coughs up the ball with any frequency.
2. How healthy is Kansas?
A couple of weeks ago there were rumors that Reesing, wide receiver Kerry Meier, and running back Jake Sharp were questionable for the game. While all will probably play, these three being banged up will make a much larger difference than Chase Coffman playing hurt or not playing at all.
Meier has caught 27 percent of Reesing's completions. Sharp has accounted for over half of KU's rushing yards. If Kansas is 100 percent, a lot will have to go right for them to beat Missouri. If they're banged up, their chances are significantly worse.
1. Coaching
Missouri was up 21 points headed into the fourth quarter of their game last season. They only won by eight. That is a direct responsibility of head coach Gary Pinkel, who has a habit of "calling off the dogs" late in games. Well, forget about it. If possible, Missouri should blow the wheels off KU.
If the game is a rout, put Blaine Gabbert in and have him and the reserves run an aggressive spread offense. A message should be sent that the Big 12 North is Missouri's.
Also, both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Mangino and Pinkel are both heralded as intelligent and creative coaches. This weekend could say a lot about how each man has prepared his team and game plan. In such an intense rivalry, both teams will be fighting until the end, so the winner will have to play a complete game.
Prediction: Missouri 38, Kansas 27
I feel like I should pick this game in a blowout. Why? Let's look at the Nebraska matchup. The Huskers beat KU by 10 coming off an embarrassing loss to the 'Hawks last season. Nebraska looked foolish in Columbia last season and then laid an egg this year as well, to the tune of a 35-point loss.
KU is a talented team, but I look for weaknesses on the offensive line, secondary, and possibly health issues to stop their quest for a huge upset. Missouri shouldn't have a huge problem here.
5 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Lisa Horne 7 months ago
Nice write-up!
I think Mizzou wins by 18, is that a massacre?
When Kansas lost that many games, it tends to hit the players hard. With that being said, they may play with reckless abandon, which could lead to an upset.
Intriguing game indeed.
Edit Comment Cancel
Peter Fleischer 7 months ago
Thanks for the feedback Lisa!
Ha, I'm not sure how to qualify a massacre, but it sounds like our expectations are pretty similar for how this game might go. I totally agree that KU could put a scare into Missouri and pull the upset at the same time.
It should be a very interesting weekend for Missouri. If they stage a blowout and get some momentum, they're going right back to Arrowhead and Kansas City in six days, so their performance against the Jayhawks could go a long way.
Edit Comment Cancel
C.W. O'Brien 7 months ago
I'm a KU guy...and by extension hate all things Mizzou. I live in Iowa but travel to Kansas frequently for work...and I won't fill up in the state. That said, KU is going to have its work cut out for them.
I don't think that KU will have as much problem scoring as people think, provided Sharp, Reesing, and Meier are all healthy. I think that the biggest problem is going to be shutting down Mizzou's passing game. KU's pass defense has looked bad at best all season.
I was at the KU Texas game, and it was a LOT closer than the final score. KU's defense looked good almost the whole day, but it is hard to stay on the field the whole time against Colt McCoy and the Texas offense. Three time's KU had the ball in scoring position and three times they came up empty. I don't think that KU would have won that game, but it wouldn't have looked like that.
I think that Mark Mangino will have his team up for this and hopefully they are healthy. People don't really remember last year, but KU had 3 starters that either didn't play or played in limited rolls last year against Mizzou and KU still had a chance to win the game on the final drive. I don't know that it would have made a difference and it has NO effect on this game, but it is just worth thinking about.
KU can play the part of spoiler this year. They have a bowl game locked up already, so they really have nothing to lose. Mangino can get a little tricky if he has time to prepare. I am really looking forward to this game. Hopefully KU can pull out a W.
Edit Comment Cancel
Peter Fleischer 7 months ago
Thanks for reading C.W.! I totally agree with Mangino. As much as I hate the guy, I have to admit that he is pretty crafty. Although Pinkel and Christensen are awfully creative in their own right, I do wish Mangino didn't have the same two weeks to get ready.
The biggest thing you mentioned was health. When he spoke to the media yesterday Mangino admitted that Sharp wasn't practicing and that Meier was still banged up. As you mentioned, KU has its work cut out for them if healthy. The Jayhawks being less than 100% could spell imminent doom.
Edit Comment Cancel
C.W. O'Brien 7 months ago
Meier has been hurt since the OU game. He smashed up his hip pretty bad and just hasn't really had a chance to recover. Sharp is probably a knee, although I don't know. He looked like he was favoring his right knee a little and couldn't cut correctly against Texas. I think Reesing is just the normal bumps and bruises that come with getting his butt sacked too many times the last few weeks.
To be honest, if Meier or Sharp aren't ready to go, I am hoping that Mangino keeps them out of the game so that they will have all the extra rest for a bowl game. I could choke down a loss to Mizzou if it meant that KU was healthy for a bowl game.
I'm not so sure about the imminent doom thing, but without Sharp and Meier, it makes it a lot harder...the other backs are too tentative although I think both are more talented than Sharp...and Meier is just another quality receiver that will actually hang on to the ball. Briscoe is amazing at times but it is almost a guarantee that he will drop every 4th or 5th ball. Wilson is hot and cold. The other receivers aren't bad, but they just aren't big game receivers.
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.