Conventional wisdom says the deal for Johan Santana has thrust the Mets to the forefront of the pennant race in the National League.
You would think that this is true, but it really isn't.
In fact, the trade is nothing more than a thrown-bone to the disgruntled Flushing fan base.
The blogosphere will tell you the Mets needed a frontline starter—and that Santana is their savior. That's the perception, but it's far from the reality.
The reality is the Mets didn't really need a frontline starter—they need bullpen help by the boatload.
I'm not saying that Johan Santana isn't going to be a dominant pitcher for the Mets. I think he will be. But it won't mean a goddamned thing.
Willie Randolph and his overly protective pitching coach, Rick Peterson, do not allow starters to pitch past the seventh inning, regardless of how well they're performing.
That means Johan Santana can dominate two-third of every ballgame and then be forced to sit and watch as the Mets' miserable excuse for a bullpen pisses away his efforts.
And the Mets will be guilty of wasting $137.5 million.
The Mets' collapse in 2007 can clearly be blamed on Randolph and Peterson's ineptitude. They didn't allow their starters to pitch deep into games, taxing their overrated bullpen to the point where they were completely shot by mid-September.
The Mets' starting pitchers don't impress because they aren't permitted to. This has led to the perception that they needed a frontline starter.
But what's the point? The manager won't let these guys shine—so the Mets had better get help in the bullpen fast.
Just look at the cadre of bums the Mets were parading out each night.
Guillermo Mota, the Typhoid Mary of the group, is mercifully gone.
Scott Schoenweis, a steroid user who should get his money back, came on late, but he did irreparable damage between April and September.
Aaron Heilman, the Nuke LaLoosh of the bunch, was so hittable at times I thought I was watching films of the 1962 season.
Then, there's Billy Wagner. Yes—the guy who enters to Metallica's "Enter Sandman."
They say he's one of baseball's premier closers. I have yet to see evidence of this.
He has more blown saves than he has 1-2-3 innings. As far as I'm concerned, he's John Franco with a livelier arm.
In closing, don't be surprised this summer when you turn on SportsCenter and see a highlight of Johan Santana sitting in the Mets dugout cursing in Espanol because the rag-arms in the Mets bullpen just cheated him out of another win...
20 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
David Giunta about 1 year ago
This article is kind of ridiculous. Santana will go deeper in a game than Brian Lawrence. Martinez should make up for the innings lost by Glavine's departure. Pelfrey should be able to throw more innings when he takes Hernandez's place after Hernandez gets injured. The bullpen should get about 40 more innings of rest this year at least. That would have been enough last year to get the Mets through September. Also, Sosa will replace the never-used Sele as the long man and Hernandez should give the bullpen depth when he comes back from injury. And who's to say Sanchez or Padilla will not be able to come back from injury?
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Johnny Shea about 1 year ago
I completely agree with David.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Good points, guys. I hope you are right. But what about Wagner?
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Hey John, this article of yours is nonsense. You have no idea what you are talking about. The Mets in 08 are going to have one of the BEST bullpens in MLB. This is why, D. Sanchez will be back and for your FYI Bill Wagner was HURT last Sept. and he will be fine in 08. With Sanchez, Heilman & Pedro F. thats a nice bridge from the starters to Wagner. And, you are completely wrong about Billy; he has more BIG saves (1-2-3 innings) than John Franco would dream about. The only thing that worries me about Billy is his frame of mind. I don't like what I was hearing from him this off season. He was telling the media that the Mets are third best. That's not right to think of or say out loud. He better correct that thinking of his before the season starts or he will be in BIG trouble here in the BIG Apple. I will help Fred, Jeff and Omar kick his a$$ back to Philly or Houston! And have Sanchez close then.
-Austin
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
John this article is just plain ridiculous. I am so sick of everyone having nothing but negative comments for he mets. Your acting as though signing Santana was pointless and just a waste of time. give me a break. this is one of the best signings the mets have made. This is a better signing then Pedro or Beltran or Wagner. I haven't been this excited as a met fan since the mets got Mike Piazza. Although Piazza did not bring home a championship he changed the dynamic of the new york mets. He once again put them on the map. If he had a more talented team around him, the likes of which we have now he could have brought home a championship. Johan will excite and solidify an already impressive team and push them over the edge. Talk what you want about the collapse and the bullpen. The mets have a terrific rotation, a terrific lineup, a very good bullpen, especially with the hopeful return of Duaner Sanchez. The mets are the class of the National League and New York's team. Everyone who doesn't respect the mets better get there head out of the yankee spotlight and gear up for the future here in New York. and the future is the METS!!
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Ben Feldman about 1 year ago
let's pretend for a moment that this article was not foolish, and try to respond to the points that are sort of almost kind of being made.
Let's pretend that the Mets problem is their bullpen. (this is assuming that they have a problem, y;know, they did win like 89 games last year). If this is the case, doesn't it help to fix that problem to replace a potentially mid-level 180 IP pitcher with a guy who wil almost certainly give you 215+ innings at an excellent rate. Don't these 35 innings take soem pressure off of what might have been an overworked bullpen?
Bullpen innings are innings that starters do not pitch, if a starter pitches more innings, then you are basically taking them away from the bottom of your bullpen.
Billy Wagner...ok...very good, he is clearly a pretty excellent closer. he has more blown saves than 1-2-3 innings. Who gives a shit? This is not valid. I ask you what percentage of closers have more 1-2-3 innings than blown saves? What is the number? In a vacuum, this "stat" is utterly without meaning.
The reason that The staff rarely allows its pitchers to go past the 7th is a result of who is on the staff. Tom Glavine...El Duque...these are guys who dont have it in their arms, Johan does.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Ben
I hope you're right
By the way - do you get to many Met games?
Everyone in the stadium holds their collective breath when Wagner comes into a close game.
TWO WORDS - SO TAGUCHI
He's owes us big time. So does Heilman. He's the guy who gave up the HR to Benji Molina, the slugger who would go on to blast 6 HRs in 2007....
I'm sick of these guys
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Correction - Yadier Molina - even worse...
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David Philp about 1 year ago
The Mets replaced a 41-year old pitcher who didn't like NY with a 29-year old pitcher who's better and wanted to pitch in NY. I can't see how that can be criticized.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
It has nothing to do with how good he is.
The bullpen is the problem. If Willie Randolph takes Santana out because he reaches his 'pitch count' and puts in one these rag arms, he should be put on unemployment
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nick bowen about 1 year ago
Johns right the bullpen is a promblem but hes wrong about the fact the Mets arent going to be better.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Don't tell me these things...tell Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph
I only report what I see
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Anyone that says that getting Johan Santana "doesn't help the Mets" has zero credibility. It's just a stupid thing to say.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Of course it a stupid thing to say. That's why I wrote this article.
I need people to realize that this trade is not an instant ticket to the World Series. This club still has glaring weaknesses in several key areas - mainly the bullpen.
Also
The Mets cannot operate as favorites. There must be underdogs or they will underachieve.
It happens every time.
Be me writing this article I am imploring the fans base to not get too confident. Keep hounding this team until they get it ALL right....
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
I concur win David and Ben that the the addition of Johan Santana makes the Mets a vastly imroved team. However, David does have a point. I'll tell you, I remember being scared anytime a, frankly, bum like Aaron Heilman came in to protect a vintage El Duque beautiful 4-hit masterpiece. But the bullpen should be improved with Duaner Sanchez, who, admittedly, is coming back from major surgery. I think the main concern should be the alarmingly precipitous decline of output from the bats if José Reyes and Carlos Delgado. Anyway, I foresee a better outcome than last season's shortcomings.
--Sidsta3333
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Patrick Murray about 1 year ago
Santana helps the Mets in more ways than one. He is the big time pitcher theyve been missing since pedro went down. The added innings he will pitch over what they would have gotten will help the bullpen. Also the Mets didn't completely ignore the bullpen, they added Matt Wise, and several others to compete for a job such as Steven Register and Brian Stokes and invited Ricardo Rincon to spring training. Also, Duaner Sanchez will be back and has been looking good and "ahead of schedule" in his workouts in Port St. Lucie. Bullpens are very unpredictable from year to year, the 2006 Mets bullpen was one of the top 3 in the NL and included the same core guys- Wagner, Sanchez, Feliciano, Heilman. Santana is a huge acquisition and the bullpen will get the job done
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Thank you, Patrick. I am fully aware of the Mets mini-moves to improve their bullpen. Omar's philosophy is to change things up out there every year because - as you stated - bullpens are unpredictable. I think the re-signing of Feliciano was a smart move. Sanchez may be the shot in the arm we need. Heilman and Wagner are too hittable for guys with their stuff. They should not struggle the way they do.
My point is..if Santana can go 8 or 9 innings, let him. I don't want Rick Peterson taking him out in a key situation because he exceeded his pitch count. There should be no pitch count for Santana. Perez and Maine should also be taken off pitch counts
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
hey john, do you want to destroy the kids' careers? You can't torpedo maines life.
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Jarek Berga about 1 year ago
Hey John,
I respect that you don't think Santana will be the Mets' savior, but reading your article makes me think that being a Mets fan is clouding your judgement a bit. I don't say that to put you down, I just think sometimes we fans (I'm guilty of this without question) tend to be too critical of our teams and their transactions.
Here's my logic for this: looking at this objectively, the Mets just got the #1 pitcher in baseball by a lot (sorry to Josh Beckett, but let's see him do it for 3-4 years in a row like Johan before he even enters the conversation). Santana would be welcomed with open arms by any team and fan base, and he immediately takes a team with talent (like the Mets) and makes them at least a few wins better.
The Mets needed a workhorse badly, and they got one that will give them innings (save for an injury, which is of course not out of the questions), and high quality innings at that. These aren't Livan Hernadez (all due respect) 200+ innings of league average ERA, these are 200+ innings of few baserunners and lots of strikeouts, in other words, devastating innings that could rival the greats (think Randy Johnson 2004 type upside).
The Mets may have bullpen problems (who doesn't these days), but their bullpen should get more rest based on Johan's 200+ excellent innings.
Rick Peterson knows a lot more about pitching than any of us, so I would defer to his judgment as to when it's a good time to remove a starter from a game. If you think back to 2007, the Mets had 3 either aging or injury prone starters (Glavine, Duque, & Pedro) that needed to be babied a bit through the long, grueling season.
John Maine and Oliver Perez both tend to walk a lot of batters, and they have high pitch counts. If you take that into account, I think Peterson and Randolph were yanking pitchers based on high pitch counts or so-so durability and not anything else.
You can disagree with me if you'd like, but if the Mets didn't work their pitchers past a certain point, it was for a reason. Rick Peterson is in the upper echelon of pitching minds and he blends it with innovative methods. It's hard to argue with his results, and you can read it for yourself (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20030217keri.shtml)
Also, the Mets wouldn't necessarily be foolish to limit Santana's innings. They had to sign him to a long-term deal, and few long-term deals for pitchers have worked out well for the teams that sign them. Pitching is simply unnatural, and saving an inning or two of Santana every so often may help him finish this long contract relatively healthy.
All in all, I think you should just be happy that you have him and not focus on the negatives. The Mets will be good, and if they can get a good performance from their rotation, they should win the East and make a run in the playoffs.
Also, Santana is in a class almost by himself, so even if you overpay, he's not going to disappoint unless he gets hurt.
You can always take solice in the fact that your team didn't overpay for a 32-year old center fielder who admits he isn't a difference maker at the plate. I'll take Santana at $137.5 over Torii Hunter at $90 million any day of the week.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
Good points. I hear ya.
I just get overcautious when everyone else begins to gain what I believe to be too much confidence...
That's the Flushing in me.
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