UFC Fight Night 25: Info, Predictions for Every Fight on the Card

Aaron KellerstrassCorrespondent ISeptember 12, 2011

UFC Fight Night 25: Info, Predictions for Every Fight on the Card

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    UFC Fight Night 25 has just about everything: up-and-coming fighters, grizzled veterans, TUF contestants, the two Jakes, comebacks, an Amish Billy Goat and the Albino Rick James (more on that in a minute). It even has a Rocky III-like subplot in the main event.

    Here are breakdowns and predictions of every fight going down on the Bayou.

Jorge Lopez vs. Justin Edwards

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    Jorge Lopez

    Nickname: Lil' Monster

    Record: 11-1-0

    Wins: 5 (T)KOs
             6 decisions

    Losses: 1 decision

    • Lopez is only 22 and looking to make a name for himself in the UFC.

     

    Justin Edwards

    Record: 6-1-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KOs
              5 submissions

    Losses: 1 decision

    • Edwards lost a close split decision against Clay Harvison at TUF 13 finale.

     

    Prediction: These two have very similar styles. They are both skilled wrestlers, but Edwards has more experience and heavier hands. He will ground and pound Lopez until he gives up his back or neck. Edwards by submission in Round 2, although I hate to go against a Lil'.

Robert Peralta vs. Mike Lullo

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    Robert Peralta

    Record: 14-3-0

    Wins: 11 (T)KOs
              2 submissions
              1 decisions

    Losses: 2 submissions
                1 decision

    • This will be Peralta's debut in the UFC. He has won his last seven MMA fights.

     

    Mike Lullo

    Record: 8-3-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KOs
             6 submissions
             1 decision

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                2 decisions

    Lullo lost his last fight to Edson Barboza by TKO due to brutal, painful-to-even-watch legkicks, a fight he took on a week's notice.

     

    Prediction: Lullo will be better prepared for this one and will take it to the ground, where he won't have to worry about being repeatedly kicked in the leg. Lullo will win by arm bar submission in Round 2.

Anthony Waldburger vs. Daniel Roberts

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    Anthony Waldburger

    Nickname: T.J.

    Record: 13-6-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KOs
            10 submissions
             2 decisions

    Losses: 5 (T)KOs
                1 decision

    • Waldburger was TKOd in his last fight against Johny Hendricks.

     

    Daniel Roberts

    Nickname: Ninja

    Record: 12-3-0

    Wins: 9 submissions
             3 decisions

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                 2 decisions

    • The Ninja is coming off two unanimous decision losses against Claude Patrick and Rich "the Guido" Attonito.

     

    Prediction: Both of these guys like to submit their opponents, so this should be a technical fight. Even though Roberts just fought in June he is going to win this one by split decision after both fighters are able to fend off each other's submissions.

Seth Baczynski vs. Clay Harvison

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    Seth Baczynski

    Nickname: The Polish Pistola

    Record: 13-6-0

    Wins: 5 (T)KOs
             8 submissions

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                3 submissions
                2 decisions

    • Baczynski, who has one of the greatest nicknames in the UFC, has won two in a row since his controversial loss to Brad Tavares at the TUF 11 finale.

     

    Clay Harvison

    Nickname: Heavy Metal

    Record: 7-1-0

    Wins: 2 (T)KOs
             4 submissions
             1 decision

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs

    • Harvison won a unanimous decision over Justin Edwards in his last fight. If both Edwards and Harvison win we might see a rematch.

     

    Prediction: Both of these guys are finishers who like to strike so I don't see this one going the distance. Harivson showed heart against Edwards but that heart is not going to help him here. In a mild upset the Polish Pistola will win by TKO in the third round.

Ken Stone vs. Donny Walker

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    Ken Stone

    Record: 9-3-0

    Wins: 4 (T)KOs
             5 submissions

    Losses: 2 (T)KOs
                1 decision

    • Ken Stone, who looks identical to my friend Joe, is coming off two straight KO losses, both which were pretty ugly. He was pummeled by Scott Jorgensen during the TUF 13 finale.

     

    Donny Walker

    Nickname: Eagle Eye

    Record: 15-7-0

    Wins: 4 (T)KOs
             8 submissions
             3 decisions

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                4 submissions
                2 decisions

    • Walker is also coming off a loss, a unanimous decision against Jeff Hougland at UFC 132.

     

    Prediction: Since watching Stone get beaten up is like watching my friend get beaten up, I am hoping it doesn't happen again. I don't think it will, as Stone is probably fighting for his UFC life here. Stone wins this one by submission in the third round. "Donny, you're out of your element!"

Matt Riddle vs. Lance Benoist

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    Matt Riddle

    Record: 5-2-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KOs
             3 decisions
             1 other

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                 1 decisions

    • Riddle's last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Sean Pierson at UFC 124.

     

    Lance Benoist

    Record:  5-0-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KOs
             4 submissions

    • This will be Benoist's first fight in the UFC, but he is 5-0 in his MMA career, winning four of them by submission.

     

    Prediction: Even though Riddle looks like a goofy 12-year-old on steroids, he will use superior wrestling to get a ground and pound TKO in Round 2. Then he'll call his mom, who has baked fresh cookies.

Evan Dunham vs. Shamar Bailey

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    Evan Dunham

    Record: 11-2-0

    Wins: 2 (T)KOs
             6 submissions
             3 decisions

    Losses: 1 (T)KOs
                1 decisions

    • Dunham is coming off two straight losses, one a spilt decision against Sean Sherk, the other a TKO loss to Melvin Guillard. Dunham is out to prove that the last fight was a fluke and that he belongs in the conversation in the LW division.

     

    Shamar Bailey

    Record: 12-3-0

    Wins: 4 (T)KOs
             2 submissions
             5 decisions
             1 other

    Losses: 2 (T)KOs
                1 decision

    • Shamar Bailey hasn't fought since his unanimous decision over Ryan McGillivray at the finale of TUF 13.

     

    Prediction: Bailey will try and take Dunham down but Dunham will stuff his attempts. Dunham will frustrate Bailey into making a mistake and win this one by submission in the second round, getting himself back into the win column.

Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha

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    Cody McKenzie

    Nickname: AK Kid

    Record: 12-1-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KO 
             11 submissions

    Losses: 1 submission

    • McKenzie, who looks like an extra from Deliverance, suffered his first loss at UFC: Fight for the Troops 2, being submitted by Yves Edwards. Prior to that he had won 11 straight fights by guillotine choke.

     

    Vagner Rocha

    Record: 6-2-0

    Wins: 1 (T)KO 
             4 submissions
             1 decision

    Losses: 2 decisions

    • Rocha lost a unanimous decision to Donald Cerrone at UFC 131.

     

    Prediction: McKenzie is a one-trick pony but he is extremely good at that one trick, even if he looks like he'd be more comfortable in a beer-drinking contest. McKenzie takes this one with his favorite weapon, a guillotine choke in the very first round, then yells out "squeal like a pig!" and celebrates with some chew.

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

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    Jason MacDonald

    Nickname: The Athlete

    Record: 25-14-0

    Wins: 3 (T)KOs
            19 submissions
             3 decisions

    Losses: 5 (T)KOs
                4 submissions
                5 decisions

    • MacDonald won his last fight over Ryan Jensen by triangle choke at UFC 129.

     

    Alan Belcher

    Nickname: The Talent

    Record: 16-6-0

    Wins: 8 (T)KOs
             6 submissions
             2 decisions

    Losses: 2 (T)KOs
                1 submission 
                3 decisions

    • Belcher was ascending in the middleweight division before being derailed by an eye problem that required surgery. This will be his first fight since May 2010 at UFC 113 in which he defeated Patrick Cote and then laughingly called out Anderson Silva.

     

    Prediction: Belcher uses his restored vision to pick "Old" MacDonald apart with precise striking, knocking him out in the second round and earning himself KO of the night honors. Afterwards he will say something silly about Anderson Silva and everyone will giggle a little. On a side note, these are two of the worst nicknames ever. "The Athlete"?  How about "The Human Being" or "A Guy with Toes"?

Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch

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    Erik Koch

    Nickname: New Breed

    Record: 12-1-0

    Wins: 3 (T)KOs
             7 submissions
             2 decisions

    Losses: 1 decision

    • Koch has a three-fight win streak, including two impressive KOs over Francisco Rivera and Raphael Assuncao, both which earned Knockout of the Night honors.

     

    Jonathan Brookins

    Nickname: Albino Rick James

    Record: 12-3-0

    Wins: 2 (T)KOs
             8 submissions
             2 decisions

    Losses: 1 (T)KO 
                 2 decisions

    • Brookins hasn't fought since he won season 12 of TUF, having to be pulled from a few fights due to injury. This will be his first fight as a featherweight.

     

    Prediction: Brookins should be the physically stronger fighter, but Koch is the superior striker. Ring rust could also be an issue here, but I don't think so, which is why I say Brookins wins by rear naked choke in the third round, after Koch knocks him down once or twice early on. This has Fight of the Night written all over it and Brookins' choke will earn him Submission of the Night. I'm Rick James, Biaaaatch!

Dongi Yang vs. Court McGee

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    Dongi Yang

    Nickname: The Ox

    Record: 10-1-0

    Wins: 9 (T)KOs
             1 submission

    Losses: 1 decision

    • The Ox got his first UFC win with a TKO over Rob Kimmons at UFC Live: Sanchez vs. Kampmann and hasn't fought since.

     

    Court McGee

    Nickname: The Crusher

    Record: 13-1-0

    Wins: 3 (T)KOs
             7 submissions
             3 decisions

    Losses: 1 decision

    Court McGee, who really needs to change his nickname to "The Amish Billy Goat," hasn't fought since UFC 121 all the way back in October of 2010. He won that fight by arm triangle over Ryan Jensen.

     

    Prediction: The Ox likes to knock guys out and pretty much has in all of his victories, so there is no reason to think he wants to grapple with McGee, who is the superior wrestler. McGee is the more well-rounded fighter and will get this one to the ground, where he knows how to finish. McGee by TKO in the third round with his beard somehow coming into play.

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger

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    Jake Shields

    Record: 26-5-1

    Wins: 3 (T)KOs
             10 submissions
             13 decisions

    Losses: 1 (T)KO 
                4 decisions

    • Shields hasn't fought since his loss to GSP in April, and more importantly, since the death of his father/manager on Aug. 30. Shields seems like the type of fighter who will be motivated rather than distracted by his father's passing, so we should see a "Rocky after Mickey died" version of Jake Shields, who happens to look like Ryu from Streetfighter.

    "Aint so bad, Ellenberger, aint so bad!"

     

    Jake Ellenberger

    Nickname: The Juggernaut

    Record: 24-5-0

    Wins: 15 (T)KOs
              5 submissions
              4 decisions

    Losses: 1 submission 
                4 decisions

    • This would be a big win for Ellenberger, who is on a four-fight win streak since his loss to Condit, three of them coming by (T)KO. Ellenberger is a strong wrestler but would prefer to stand up with Shields who is also an elite wrestler as well as a BJJ black belt.

     

    Prediction: An inspired Shields uses superior cardio to outpace Ellenberger, but will be unable to submit him. This is a sentimental pick for sure, but Shields is going to win by a split decision, which will put him right back into the welterweight mix and possibly set up a fight between one of the winners from UFC 137.

    At some point in the fight, Shields will be down and that's when he'll hear an angel whisper into his ear, "Get up, you son of a gun!"