I am reminded of the movie A Christmas Story when looking at the chances of Boise State being involved in this season’s BCS Championship. You know the story: Ralphie wants a Red Ryder carbine-action 200-shot range model air rifle for Christmas, but everyone says, “no, you’ll shoot your eye out kid.”
Now this isn’t a post about a movie from the past, but rather A Boise State Story. As I watched an ESPN commercial today at lunch promoting this Saturday’s Michigan State vs. Penn State game, my mind began to play out a scenario in which the Boise State Broncos could face the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National Championship.
Here is my one in a million scenario that would have Boise State hurdling seven spots, going from No. 9 to No. 2 in the BCS.
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The absolute in the scenario is the Utah Utes would need to lose to BYU this Saturday, and of course the Broncos would have to win out. If these things fail to happen, then goodbye BCS Championship hopes. A loss by Utah, and Boise State overcomes its first hurdle.
Simply put, there is not enough time for these conferences to move close enough to the top 10, let alone number one or two in the BCS. The remaining games played by these teams are insignificant in deciding a National Champion. No hurdles to jump here—just putting all my ducks in a row.
With a win by Michigan State over Penn State, Boise State hurdles yet another team. Ohio State winning the Big Ten, though important, may not be enough to pass an undefeated Boise State. Also, OSU needs to get by Michigan.
Oregon State has two games left, and I think it is a toss-up for them to win both games or lose both. Regardless of that outcome, Oregon State has even less of a chance to pass BSU and jump to No. 2 than BSU has of becoming No. 2. USC would need to drop either the Notre Dame or UCLA game. Resulting losses by Oregon State and USC could allow another hurdle.
In Alabama vs. Florida for the SEC Championship, Alabama would need to come out on top, giving Florida its second loss. I think a big win by Alabama would be needed, as a one to three-point loss would do little to decrease Florida’s ranking. These are the fourth and third most difficult hurdles for Boise State.
This could prove to be the Broncos' downfall. The way this needs to play out is for Texas Tech to beat Oklahoma this week and win out. An Oklahoma loss allows for BSU to hurdle its fifth team. Texas Tech would need to win out and lose in the Big 12 Title game to a Missouri Tiger team. Hurdle number six.
That leaves the last hurdle, which would require a Texas Longhorns loss to Texas A&M and becomes the seventh and final hurdle that lands Boise State at number two in the BCS, taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the national championship game.
To be realistic, the odds of all of these things panning out for Boise State are an extreme long shot—not to mention the human pollsters may not vote Boise State anywhere close enough to No. 2 to make it a reality.
However, I like to dream as Ralphie did, because after all, Ralphie beat up the bully (BCS) and got the BB gun in the end (Championship). Now wasn’t that fun?
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