It is our weekly look into the mind of Eric Stashin over at rotoprofessor.com. I know, that is a scary thought.
This week, Eric graces us with a strategy question in his weekly blog. Do you draft by experience, or do you look for upside and potential?
I believe there is a very fine line between the perfect mix of youth and experience and either a team ready for the nursing home or nursery school. The ability to find the right mix is what separates the champs from the chumps.
Without further ado, here’s Eric:
I want to pose a question to everyone to see what their draft strategy is. What is your preference, a player who you have a good idea what you are going to get from him or a player who is young and has yet to fully prove that he is capable of repeating the numbers he’s posted in the past?
- B/R Ticket Guide
An example of this is CC Sabathia vs. Tim Lincecum (which is a comparison we will be discussing in much greater detail here in the near future). In Sabathia, you have a pitcher who has been one of the best in the league for the past three seasons, while being a very good pitcher since ‘01. In Lincecum, you have a young pitcher who was unbelievable in 2008, but we really don’t yet know if it was fact or fiction.
Another example could be Magglio Ordonez vs. Corey Hart. In Ordonez you have a veteran who has consistently proven to be among the best, while Hart has shown the potential to be a 30/30 player (as we discussed in a Quick Hit column that you can read here), having gone 20/20 the past two seasons. This comparison we will actually discuss in detail next Monday.
My philosophy, honestly, is that it depends on what part of the draft I’m looking at. The old philosophy is that you can’t win your league in the first few rounds, but you certainly could lose it. Basically, there’s no reason to take an unnecessary risk, especially in the first 4 rounds or so. Personally, if there are two players who are extremely similar, most of the time I’m going to go with the one that has proven more dependable instead of the one who has slightly more upside.
Obviously, there are some exceptions.
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