Anderson "The Spider" Silva (-625) vs. Yushin "Thunder" Okami (+425)
The main event of the night pits the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Anderson Silva, against the "best fighter to come out of Japan", Yushin Okami, in a rematch of Silva's 2006 loss to Okami.
Before I get into the fight, allow me to quickly set the record straight. First, Kazushi Sakuraba is the best fighter to ever come out Japan. You can read a great article about why here. Secondly, Okami didn't beat Silva; Silva was disqualified.
Now, on to the fight at hand. There is zero doubt about what Okami wants to do here. He wants to follow Chael Sonnen's blueprint for defeating Silva—take him down, control him, beat him up and, most importantly, avoid a submission.
Unfortunately for Okami, he just isn't good enough to do it. Don't get me wrong, I think Okami is a very good fighter. He's a huge middleweight, a very talented judoka and has beaten some really tough guys, but he isn't the one who will dethrone Silva. He doesn't fight with enough urgency and will be too willing to stand with Silva.
Silva, in front of a Brazilian crowd, will almost be fighting more against the ghost of Sonnen than he will be against Okami. Nothing would be better for Silva in this fight than a brutal knockout, which, if Okami tries to trade with Silva, we will undoubtedly see. If Silva gets taken down, I expect him to be able to sweep or scramble his way back onto his feet, or he could always look for a submission from his back. The best in the world will find a way. I have no doubts.
From a gambling point of view, just stay away from this. You could take a small flyer on Okami, but I don't think he has a legitimate chance, and Silva is too big of a favorite to put into a parlay.
Pick: Anderson Silva