Coming into the season, Joseph Addai was a hot commodity.
He was like a tech stock on the NASDAQ in '98 that had a firm green arrow next to its value.
Move midway through the 2008 season and he's more like Golman Sachs; down but not out.
When the fantasy draft took place back in August, he was considered one of the five best players on the board. In most cases, the only players who went ahead of him were Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, and Brady.
And aside from Peterson and Westbrook, who have put up solid numbers—albeit not what most expected—Tomlinson and Brady have ended up being busts although Brady has an excuse. This takes us to pick No. 5 in about 90-95% of all drafts.
When a player goes that high, he is expected to be one of the main contributors week-in week-out. Unfortunately for Addai's owners, this has not been the case.
It hasn't entirely been his fault; injuries are something out of a player's control, but aside from the few games he missed, something else has been going on in Indy which we haven't seen for sometime: The offense has been extremely inconsistent.
If there were two staples of this league coming into 2008 it would be that Tom Brady was an iron man (127 consecutive games played prior to Week 1) and that the Colts' offense would be dominant.
Talk about a season turned upside down.
When Indy took the field vs. Chicago on opening day, two things prevented them from executing like in year's past: Peyton Manning was rusty after missing all of the offseason and pre-season due to knee surgery and the offensive line was decimated by injury.
And most people didn't realize how far of a drop off there was from the top-ranked offensive line unit to the one that had rookies and back-ups sprinkled in.
For any running game to be successful, the offense must be able to pass. Otherwise teams will cheat their safeties up to the line and leave their corner backs on an island. Passing keeps defenses honest.
The Colts are a timing offense which means that balls are thrown to spots, not players. When Peyton would drop back in the first half of the season, he would consistently find defenders in his face and the result was a lot of sacks and poorly thrown balls.
And since defenses were able to pressure Manning without having to bring added pressure, their secondary could play zone and lock down the receivers.
Just as the line was breaking down in pass protection, it was failing to create holes for Addai to run through. The Colts don't feature a power running game like the New York Giants; they run a lot of misdirection and cutbacks and Addai excels at this. With few holes and running lanes to run through, Addai was a non-factor.
As if this wasn't enough, the defense wasn't doing its part either by forcing three-and-outs and getting the ball back into the hands of the offense. It was allowing five-minute plus drives and points on the board. So when Indy retook control of the ball, it was usually facing a deficit and forced into passing mode.
That was the first half. Now comes the second and things already look brighter. Indy's late season schedule, initially rated as one of the toughest in the NFL, is not nearly as daunting as it was coming into the season. Addai's finally healthy now and so is his line—two major components to success—and the defense is beginning to raise its play and keep the team in games.
This will add plays on offense and with the likelihood of playing in close games or with a lead, it will allow Addai to see more carries and wear defenses down late in the fourth quarter.
So, if Peyton and his offense can once again find the chemistry it enjoyed for as long as most remember, Addai will be the direct beneficiary and his fantasy numbers will once again go through the roof, thus making everyone forget everything to this point and allowing him to justify that lofty first round draft selection back in August.
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4 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Eric Kernish 7 months ago
All good points, but would you recommend trading Hightower straight up for Addai to have as a No. 3 RB?
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Josh Satler 7 months ago
Eric, if I have Hightower and someone is willing to trade me Addai straight up, I take it without even thinking. I think Hightower is a good young player, but rookies tend to wear down late in the season. I also don't think Arizona's offense is built for the running game, i.e. the line is better at pass protecting for Warner and Co. If you have Addai, keep him; if someone is going to give you him for Hightower, take it.
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Eric Kernish 7 months ago
Great advice, Josh. Sometimes accepting a trade, no matter how sweet it may look, is harder than buying a car. Fortunately, I pressed accept and Addai is on my club. Take care...
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Josh Satler 7 months ago
Nice job Eric! Addai was the MAN last Sunday and has to be licking his chops at the prospect of facing the Chargers defense this Sunday.
On a side note, I write a blog on football as well - fantasy, game picks, etc. - it's www.profootball101.org. If you have a moment, check it out. I'd love to hear feedback. Talk later.
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