The outcome of this fight is riding almost entirely on which Shogun shows up to fight.
If it's the same Shogun that Griffin has already beat, expect this fight to go down almost the same as the first one.
If the shogun who knocked out Lyoto Machida in the first round shows up, Forrest could be in some trouble.
There's no way for me to know for sure which version we'll see, but my money is on Shogun showing up in shape and ready to go. He fought just a few months ago, so ring rust won't be an issue and he also has the hometown crowd to motivate him.
I'm also doubting Griffin's motivation for this fight, based on a recent blog he posted.
As much as I hate to bet against Griffin, I think I have to in this one.
Griffin will do a reasonably good job of using his length to stay out of harm's way, but Shogun's speed and aggressiveness will allow him to nullify Griffin's reach, to an extent.
I see Shogun taking this fight, having a slight edge in the striking and hitting the occasional takedown to score points.
If Griffin fights a smothering fight like he did the last time, he has a chance, but I think UFC 134 will be Shogun's time to shine.
It's going to be a close fight but...
Winner: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua via Split-Decision
Andrew Barr is a Featured Columnist for Bleacherreport.com. For updates on what's happening in the world of MMA, follow him on Twitter http://twitter.com/#!/AndrewBarr8