I'm slightly confused here.
Twins GM Bill Smith is generally considered a pretty savvy, clever front office executive...
Johan Santana is a two-time Cy Young winner, the best lefty hurler of the last five years (sorry, Unit), a southpaw who projects out nicely over the latter years of his career given his reliance on a dominant change-up, a 200+ strikeout per year horse...
Simply put, Johan Santana is one of the most enticing, talented assets to hit the free agent market in the last decade, and Bill Smith is supposedly one of the smartest, most efficient general mangers in the game.
So, why, WHY, I ask did the Twins low-ball themselves into accepting a subpar package from the Mets for such an amazing franchise arm?
More importantly, how did the Twins seemingly manage to ratchet down the packages being offered for such a stud, eventually whittling their diamond encrusted gem of a trading piece into a pedestrian piece of synthetic plastic?
Logic would posit the scenario going something like this: Minnesota dangles Johan to the market; Boston, New York (NL and AL), and all the other heavy-hitters throw out offers somewhere in the proximity of market value; Bill Smith chooses between Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester, or Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, or other offers of equal upside, slowly drawing his high-rolling competitors into a bidding war and eventually emerging with a franchise outfielder or starter plus some mid-level prospects to boot.
So how, and why, did Bill Smith mess this up?
He started off following the game-plan, ratcheting up the offers by tapping into the divisional and regional paranoia inherent in the Boston-New York dichotomy. He had both juggernauts right there, wavering most of their top-level prospects in his face, asking him to bite.
What Bill Smith didn’t realize, is that those were the best offers he was going to see.
With Santana a soon-to-be free agent, Smith had to deal with the reality that his leverage after the winter meetings was only going down. If he wasn’t going to deal Santana at a slight discount now- which was inherently non-negotiable- then he wasn’t going to be able to deal him at all.
Boston and New York were both content to wait until Johan entered the bidding process after the 2008 season. They could take their chances then, when losing a Jacoby Ellsbury or Phil Hughes was no longer a sacrifice they’d have to make. No loss for them considering the talent they already have.
Furthermore, Boston wasn’t giving up Clay Buchholz or any package that involved Ellsbury plus substantive other developmental talent; the Yankees weren’t giving up Joba Chamberlain or a package involving Hughes AND fellow pitching prospect Ian Kennedy, and that was just the awful truth.
8 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Anonymous about 1 year ago
A couple things you missed here...
The first, Santana has had 'troubles' with bone chips in his elbow. This is never a serious injury, but one that sticks with a pitcher long term and causes other serious injuries.
The second, the trades that are allegedly tabled were only ALLEGEDLY tabled.
Third, and continuing on that point, while the Twins did not get any top 10-20 prospects like an Elsbury, etc, they did receive a great haul of sure thing AND high ceiling players. That said, had the team taken a Pelfrey instead of a Humber, they presumably wouldn't have also gotten a Guerra or Mulvey. If you consider that something like 1 in 40 prospects make an impact (6 years or more of above average service time) and that fewer then 10% of top 10 per position (hitter/pitcher) become high impact players.
With that in mind, why sell Santana for a single 'high impact player' -Pelfrey, Ellsbury, Hughes, etc- when the chance of one of them succeeding is less then the chance they have at failing. Thus, adding 4 chips, two of whom are major league ready and capable of performing at league average as well as two high ceiling prospects.
To me, this deal is better then what the Yankees were 'allegedly' offering and has much more long term potential then what the BoSox were offering.
http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com
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Will Norton about 1 year ago
1. What "great haul" of "sure thing" prospects did they receive? Most scouts and analysts see Gomez as the only sure thing of the group. Guerra is a 17 year old who might not end up amounting to much if you follow your theory of fewer then 10% of the top 10 per position.
2. Johan Santana is not hurt, period. "Troubles in his elbow" is about as vague as it gets and is unsubstantiated, just like the "ALLEGED" offers of other teams. If you want to play that card, then take a look at one of your "high ceiling" guys Phil Humber: he has been hurt throughout the minors and that has impeded his development. I don't know if his ceiling is all that high anymore to be honest.
3. There is no way what the Twins got in this deal is better than Melky, Hughes, and 2 Yankees prospects. Not close really.
4. When you deal the best pitcher of a generation, you better get a sure-fire stud. The Twins simply didn't do that.
5. I'm not saying you deal Johan for a single "high impact player" as you insinuated. The Twins could have gotten a better value package in my assessment.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
1. Guerra is 18 years old and has done as well as anyone at his age at the levels he has played.
2a. I never said Johan was 'hurt'. I said he had bone chips. Bone chips do not go away as per Will Carrol in BPs under the knife. Here is my source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2532 here is the quote, "After minor surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone chip, Santana has full range of motion and full strength. Bone chips often recur, but over a period of years, not months." This is not 'alleged', this is the TRUTH!
2b. Humber does not have to be a world beater. Neither does Mulvey. But at league average or slightly above, they will be pitchers the Mets will be spending some $12-15M on in 2 or 3 years. Any way you scratch it, this was a 'win now' trade as Sabathia will be available next off season at the same price as Santana. The difference, the Mets organization holds onto Mulvey and Humber.
3. Yes there is. Cabrera is AT BEST going to be a Gomez. While Guerra will AT BEST be a Hughes. The difference, the Twins nailed the Mets for two extremely costly commodities, pitching and solid pitching at that.
4. This is the same theory that Rosenthals dropped. First, Santana is not the 'best pitcher of a generation', he still has another 5+ years to claim that. Second, why, when the odds are so against prospects developing would you want all your eggs in one basket? That is, the Twins presumably could have gotten Pelfrey, but at the cost of Humber and Mulvey/Guerra.
5. No they could not have. Look what the A's got for Haren and his lengthy and cheap controllability. Look what the Birds are getting for Bedard, who is cheaper and equally as dominant with an extra year remaining. The Hughes and Ellsbury rumors were simply that, rumors. Cashman has stood the last 3 years that he will not trade Hughes, why anyone thinks he would suddenly ship him off is beyond me. Epstein already controls two elite pitchers whom he will be paying $20M a year when all is said and done.
Lastly, lets give the Twins organization some credit. This is the same club who traded for Liriano, whom at the time was a mediocre and raw, yet extremely projectable thrower. I have reason to believe the Twins scouting department sees similar development coming from Guerra. Given that, there is no doubt in my mind that the club would prefer Guerra over Hughes.
The problem when evaluating a trade, is people need to step away from names and speculation. GMs, while far from imperfect, are going to do what is best for their club. While some believe that Hughes was available, its doubtful that if so, he became unavailable. While the Yankees might not have upped their offer, why they would throw out an offer involving Hughes in November/December and then rescind it is beyond logic. I can understand not upping the offer, but taking it off the table altogether is ridiculous and laughable.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
1. Guerra is 18 years old and has done as well as anyone at his age at the levels he has played.
2a. I never said Johan was 'hurt'. I said he had bone chips. Bone chips do not go away as per Will Carrol in BPs under the knife. Here is my source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2532 here is the quote, "After minor surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone chip, Santana has full range of motion and full strength. Bone chips often recur, but over a period of years, not months." This is not 'alleged', this is the TRUTH!
2b. Humber does not have to be a world beater. Neither does Mulvey. But at league average or slightly above, they will be pitchers the Mets will be spending some $12-15M on in 2 or 3 years. Any way you scratch it, this was a 'win now' trade as Sabathia will be available next off season at the same price as Santana. The difference, the Mets organization holds onto Mulvey and Humber.
3. Yes there is. Cabrera is AT BEST going to be a Gomez. While Guerra will AT BEST be a Hughes. The difference, the Twins nailed the Mets for two extremely costly commodities, pitching and solid pitching at that.
4. This is the same theory that Rosenthals dropped. First, Santana is not the 'best pitcher of a generation', he still has another 5+ years to claim that. Second, why, when the odds are so against prospects developing would you want all your eggs in one basket? That is, the Twins presumably could have gotten Pelfrey, but at the cost of Humber and Mulvey/Guerra.
5. No they could not have. Look what the A's got for Haren and his lengthy and cheap controllability. Look what the Birds are getting for Bedard, who is cheaper and equally as dominant with an extra year remaining. The Hughes and Ellsbury rumors were simply that, rumors. Cashman has stood the last 3 years that he will not trade Hughes, why anyone thinks he would suddenly ship him off is beyond me. Epstein already controls two elite pitchers whom he will be paying $20M a year when all is said and done.
Lastly, lets give the Twins organization some credit. This is the same club who traded for Liriano, whom at the time was a mediocre and raw, yet extremely projectable thrower. I have reason to believe the Twins scouting department sees similar development coming from Guerra. Given that, there is no doubt in my mind that the club would prefer Guerra over Hughes.
The problem when evaluating a trade, is people need to step away from names and speculation. GMs, while far from imperfect, are going to do what is best for their club. While some believe that Hughes was available, its doubtful that if so, he became unavailable. While the Yankees might not have upped their offer, why they would throw out an offer involving Hughes in November/December and then rescind it is beyond logic. I can understand not upping the offer, but taking it off the table altogether is ridiculous and laughable.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
1. Guerra is 18 years old and has done as well as anyone at his age at the levels he has played.
2a. I never said Johan was 'hurt'. I said he had bone chips. Bone chips do not go away as per Will Carrol in BPs under the knife. Here is my source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2532 here is the quote, "After minor surgery on his pitching elbow to remove a bone chip, Santana has full range of motion and full strength. Bone chips often recur, but over a period of years, not months." This is not 'alleged', this is the TRUTH!
2b. Humber does not have to be a world beater. Neither does Mulvey. But at league average or slightly above, they will be pitchers the Mets will be spending some $12-15M on in 2 or 3 years. Any way you scratch it, this was a 'win now' trade as Sabathia will be available next off season at the same price as Santana. The difference, the Mets organization holds onto Mulvey and Humber.
Furthering on this point, I never referred to Humber as a 'high ceiling guy'. Rather he was with Mulvey in the 'sure thing' category while Guerra and Gomez were in the 'high ceiling' category. I did further this detail by stating, 'adding 4 chips, two of whom are major league ready and capable of performing at league average as well as two high ceiling prospects.' Again, not specific, but given any research, one could easily deduce an answer from said statements.
3. Yes there is. Cabrera is AT BEST going to be a Gomez. While Guerra will AT BEST be a Hughes. The difference, the Twins nailed the Mets for two extremely costly commodities, pitching and solid pitching at that.
4. This is the same theory that Rosenthals dropped. First, Santana is not the 'best pitcher of a generation', he still has another 5+ years to claim that. Second, why, when the odds are so against prospects developing would you want all your eggs in one basket? That is, the Twins presumably could have gotten Pelfrey, but at the cost of Humber and Mulvey/Guerra.
5. No they could not have. Look what the A's got for Haren and his lengthy and cheap controllability. Look what the Birds are getting for Bedard, who is cheaper and equally as dominant with an extra year remaining. The Hughes and Ellsbury rumors were simply that, rumors. Cashman has stood the last 3 years that he will not trade Hughes, why anyone thinks he would suddenly ship him off is beyond me. Epstein already controls two elite pitchers whom he will be paying $20M a year when all is said and done.
Lastly, lets give the Twins organization some credit. This is the same club who traded for Liriano, whom at the time was a mediocre and raw, yet extremely projectable thrower. I have reason to believe the Twins scouting department sees similar development coming from Guerra. Given that, there is no doubt in my mind that the club would prefer Guerra over Hughes.
The problem when evaluating a trade, is people need to step away from names and speculation. GMs, while far from imperfect, are going to do what is best for their club. While some believe that Hughes was available, its doubtful that if so, he became unavailable. While the Yankees might not have upped their offer, why they would throw out an offer involving Hughes in November/December and then rescind it is beyond logic. I can understand not upping the offer, but taking it off the table altogether is ridiculous and laughable.
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Will Norton about 1 year ago
Thanks for that 3 times...
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
1) Gomez is a better prospect than either Cabrera or Ellsbury. He has better defense, more speed and projects to have more power. He is also younger. Of course, he is further away and a higher risk. But you don't build championship teams by trading great players for ones that will be no better than good. And Ellsbury is not a franchise player even if he played like one last fall.
2) The rumor is that the Twins could have got Martinez, but they would have had to give up both Gomez and Guerra. They chose two outstanding prospects over one. Martinez looks like he is a corner outfielder, something the Twins currently have a surplus on.
3) With the possible exception of Hughes, Guerra has the highest upside of any of the pitchers offered. H is young and a long way away, but he is the only guy offered up that might take Santana's place at the top of a rotation.
4) Humber had Tommy John surgery. Last year was his first year back. If he fully recovers the stuff that made him the number three draft choice he is comparable to any of the other pitchers offered, including Hughes. Again, high risk, high reward.
5) Mulvey, as you point out, is a four pitch starter who looks like an eventual inning eater in a rotation. He clearly has less upside than the others, but he is safer to contribute something than either Humber or Guerra.
In short, there are three players in this deal who could be better than any of the players offered by the Yankees or Mets. They all have higher risks. But a small market team like the Twins has to rely on its scouting to get players young and then develop them. They can't afford to pay someone else to do the development for them because once a player is ready, they are going to be too expensive.
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Will Norton about 1 year ago
Carlos Gomez is simply not better than Ellsbury. Sorry. Not even close. The kid couldn't hit higher than .235 for extended periods with the Mets last year, while Ellsbury hit over .340 in the World Series. He projects to have more power than Melky or Ellsbury? I won't even dignify that with a response, I'm sorry. Carlos Gomez has 17 career minor league home runs!!!! Do you have substantial facts to back these ludicrous, unfounded claims?
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