Minnesota Twins: Carlos Gomez, Power Hitter?

There have always been questions about Carlos Gomez’s power potential, but he’s got a good chance of playing every day for the Twins this year—and it’s time to determine just how much power we can expect from Gomez. 

Gomez is 6’4”, young, and athletic. It’s easy to assume that he’ll hit for at least some power in the major leagues.  

His minor league numbers aren’t particularly impressive (other than the high stolen base totals). Gomez hit four homers last year including two with the Mets and his career high is eight.  

As for extra-base power, Gomez had 39 extra-base hits in 2006 for a career high .423 slugging percentage; his career minor league slugging average is just under .400. 

Basically, these minor league numbers suggest that his power’s going to be a lot more similar to Jason Tyner’s than Justin Morneau’s. 

However, there’s a precedent for players who develop power at the major league level.

Derek Jeter, for example, never hit more than five homers in any minor league season and his minor league high in extra base hits was 43.

Jeter’s slugging average blossomed from .418 to .462 in the majors and he’s hit as many as 24 homers with the New York Yankees. 

While there’s no reason that Gomez couldn’t have a Jeter-esque power surge with the Twins, such improvement is the exception, not the rule. 

Since Gomez—even if he does develop power—isn’t projected to hit more than 20-25 homers, I looked up the minor league numbers of every player to hit between 20 and 25 homers at the MLB level in 2007.

 I excluded players who hit that many homers in under 400 at-bats and excluded players in their decline phase who, historically, have been stronger power hitters (No one thinks of Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa when thinking of 20-25 homer guys). 

As you can see below, virtually without exception, players with 20-25 homers last year had far stronger minor league power numbers than Gomez. (I've only included the 24 HR hitters, because of space restrictions, but I'm happy to e-mail the full chart out.)

On average, their minor league SLG was .472 to Gomez’s .399. Their best single season SLG was, on average, .527 to Gomez’s 423. On average their highest homer total was 21 to Gomez’s eight and their highest doubles total was 34 to Gomez’s 24. 

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