Why the Johan Santana Deal Works for the Twins

There’s no question about it. The Twins could have traded for better prospects than they did.

Jacoby Ellsbusy, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Jed Lowrie were mentioned as potential trade bait for Bill Smith and the Twins, but they ended up with a less impressive collection of talent. 

However, it is still talent and we can’t conclude that this is a bad deal just because the Twins could have made better ones.

Minnesota was better off selling Santana at a discount than holding onto him. (Though how did he end up discounted in a free agent class headed by Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva?) 

Even though it seems that the Mets gave up more impressive talent in their trade for Ryan Church, the prospects they dealt Minnesota are solid. Carlos Gomez is just another Scott Podsednik (look for 100 Ks and half as many steals once he hits the bigs), but the pitching talent is there.

Philip Humber, in spite of his disappointing seven inning call-up last year, is a seasoned prospect ready for big league action. His track record suggests that he will be a number three starter.

Kevin Mulvey’s numbers are also very strong, but he’s only pitched six innings above AA, so he needs some time at Rochester.

As for Deolis Guerra, he cut an alarming walk rate by almost 2/9IP last year and, though only 18 years old, looks promising.

In spite of the fact that the Twins gave up baseball’s best pitcher for prospects that no one is going to confuse for Jay Bruce or Evan Longoria, their franchise is better off for it. 

Before we go any further, let’s think about this: How many games were the Twins going to win in 2008 with Johan? They won 79 last year when they still had Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva.

So let’s say that, with Liriano’s return, we could have expected 76 wins. It’s not worth keeping Santana on a team that’s not going to contend if he’s going to walk at the end of the year as a free agent.

So instead, the Twins acted and picked up a speedy outfielder (though Gomez is not a difference-maker), a MLB-ready pitcher (Humber), another pitcher who’s a year away from the bigs (Mulvey), and a pitcher who, at 18, is really an unknown (Guerra). 

These players will be ready to contribute soon—and for longer than the single season that Santana would have given them. This deal strengthens the Twins’ system, even if it’s nauseating to think that they could have had Lowrie and Ellsbury. 

But don’t count out the Twins’ scouting. The blockbuster they made after the 2003 season certainly turned up some nice young players.