In Johan Santana, the Minnesota Twins had the best pitcher in all of baseball. Period.
Santana won the AL Cy Young in 2004 and 2006 and has never seen his ERA climb above 3.50 in a year in which he has thrown more than 100 innings. He will turn 29 in March and will continue to be an elite pitcher well into his 30s.
With all this in mind, the Twins landed who for Santana?
Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber from the New York Mets.
Let's take a look at these prospects.
Carlos Gomez is the centerpiece of this deal, according to most analysts. Gomez has the potential to be a five-tool player, possibly in the Carlos Beltran mold. The key word there is potential.
In 58 games with the Mets last year, Gomez played more like Rey Sanchez than Carlos Beltran, hitting .232 with just 2 home runs and three doubles while striking out 27 times compared to just eight walks, good for a .288 on-base percentage. Those numbers hardly seem like those of a stud prospect, but everybody has their growing pains and Gomez was just 21 at the time.
However, Gomez's stats at the minor league level lead me to believe he may not be the top talent the Twins needed in a Santana trade. Gomez hit .286 last year in 36 games for AAA Norfolk, but only registered two home runs. He did steal 17 of 21 bases (along with 12 of 15 at the MLB level), but on the whole, Gomez's stats lead me to believe he'll pan out to be a good, solid, major league lead-off hitter. His K/BB ratio would worry me, but he'll still get on base and do his job well.
OK, so the Twins aren't getting completely shafted in Gomez. Right?
Well, consider this: Rumors have it that the offer Boston was making to Minnesota was centered around Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is two years older than Gomez, but that's about where the advantages for Gomez end. Ellsbury hit a ridiculous .353 in the regular season for the Red Sox last year. OK that's impressive. But now compare that to his .438 (7/16) showing in the grandest stage of them all—the World Series.
Ellsbury will go into the 2008 season as one of the best lead-off hitters in the game, unlike Gomez who has the potential to be one of the best lead-off (if they decide to put him there) hitters in the game.
Next up in the deal is Deolis Guerra. First of all, Guerra is freakin' younger than I am. I've never seen him pitch, but apparently people in the Twins organization think enough of his potential to include him in the deal.
Now, I'm a big proponent of young "project" pitchers (which is why I was so incensed when Kenny Williams gave away Fautino De Los Santos in the Nick Swisher trade), but when you're trading a star pitcher like Santana, I would think you'd rather get some sort of top-tier, major-league ready pitcher in return. It'll be interesting to watch as Guerra progresses, but he's still 18 and a whole lot could go wrong before he reaches the major leagues.
13 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
John Fennelly about 1 year ago
JJ
The deal came down to teams that could SIGN him. What the Twins were being offered is insignificant.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Mets. No other teams in MLB would be able to sign Santana outright, deal or no deal.
The Yankees and Red Sox were in the mix simply to keep each other honest - to offset and block one another. That's what super powers do.
No one close to either team was ever serious about making the deal.
The Twins were under an illusion that there were other suitors out there besides the Mets.
There wasn't.
Omar Minaya held his ground until Santana himself forced the Twins hand.
In the end they had to settle for what the Mets were willing to part with.
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
John--You make a good point about the Yankees and Red Sox. It wouldn't surprise me if neither of them were willing to give up Ellsbury/Hughes, but even when you don't compare the players the Twins got in return to those they could have got from the Red Sox/Yankees, it's still a somewhat underwhelming package. The Twins got four players, and at most, two of them have star potential (Gomez and Guerra). I guess I just think the Twins could have done better, and if not, they could have easily kept Santana and made a playoff run this year.
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
Damn, I hit "post comment" without getting my real point across--the Twins should have demanded either Pelfrey or Martinez in a trade for Santana.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
JJ
They had no more leverage. Johan was forcing the issue and a deal had to get done.
They made out OK. At least 2 of the four should turn out to be worth something.
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John Eats Balls Jr. about 1 year ago
John,
How was Johan "forcing the issue"? Please cite factual examples or shut the fuck up and quit trying to sound smart.
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Matt Kasper about 1 year ago
hey dumbass, how about Santana saying that he wouldnt waive his no trade clause after this week?
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Matt Eats John's Balls Jr. about 1 year ago
Show me the direct quote out of Johan's mouth. No hearsay or speculation.
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John Fennelly about 1 year ago
First of all, never address me in that tone, whoever you are.
I assure you that if we met in person, you would choose your words a bit more wisely.
Now to answer your question about Santana forcing the issue... here is one version from Buster Olney of ESPN ....perhaps you have heard of him...
"Santana completely controls his fate because of the full no-trade clause that he possesses, and he asked the Twins to make a decision, which is why Minnesota imposed the Tuesday deadline for offers from interested teams. It is not known if the left-hander explicitly informed the Twins that he would invoke his no-trade clause for the rest of the year and then file for free agency after the 2008 season, but that has always been his right. It appears that the Twins took his request seriously."
Regarding the Yankees and Red Sox' intentions, please read what John Heyman of Sports Illustrated had to say....
" The Twins also weighed offers from the Boston Red Sox, who had proposed two months ago a deal to send pitcher Jon Lester, outfielder Coco Crisp, pitching prospect Justin Masterson and infield prospect Jed Lowrie for Santana, and another that included outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury but not Lester. It is believed Boston never changed its offer for two months.
The Twins had stopped talking to the Yankees after they pulled top pitching prospect Phil Hughes off the table but checked back in Tuesday to see whether the Yankees intended to be players; they did not. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman did not want to surrender Hughes and also pay the dollars it would take to sign Santana."
There is no direct quote from Santana's mouth on this. It is all second generation information. But since there is no denial or rebuttal.. everyone -from the columnists to the bloggers are assuming this is true.
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Drewski Charette about 1 year ago
Let's put it this way...are any of those pitchers the Mets pawned off going to score Cy Young awards? All the Twins got out of this is 4 question marks and $150 million dollars over 6 years.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
You've got to be kidding me. You're argument for Ellsbury is his batting average in the majors last season? Have you EVER taken a stats class in school at any time? By reading your arguments I guess it's appropriate to assume you haven't received anything more than a high school diploma. He batted .353 playing ONE MONTH in the majors. One month. Aparently that makes him the Second Coming. But wait. He batted FOUR THIRTY EIGHT in the World Series. He batted 16 times you ignorant excuse for a writer. You are claiming he's the best lead off hitter in baseball based on 16 at bats. If I played a game in the majors and got 2 hits, you'd have my back as one of the top prospects in baseball correct? I mean come on I'm batting .500. The fact people like you are allowed to make your opinions available to the public shows why the world is a mess. Well done. I hope they have Ellsbury's bust ready for the Hall of Fame.
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Happy Metfan about 1 year ago
I'm a Met fan and a happy one at that. Bottom line: Santana did not want to play for the Red Sox and a contract would not have been negotiated. He would have become a free agent and the Mets would have signed him anyway. Sorry Twins fans but if you put more butts in the seats and paid as much attention to baseball as you do speed skating, you may be able to afford a decent team.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Whoever got Johan was going to be the big winner in the deal - there is no point in getting excited over unproven prospects, no matter how much "potential" people think they have. Johan's a proven Hall of Famer in his prime - oh, and he's a lefty too. Crying over Jacoby Ellsbury or Philip Hughes or Fernando Martinez is just stupid at this point in time - Just like the author of this article.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
hey if Johan would go to Free agency there is no doubt in my mind that the yankees would be the one's paying him. They wanted him pretty bad they just didn't want to give up so much to get only one great pitcher.
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