Following an exhilarating overtime thriller in Death Valley and a woodshed romp in the Music City, Alabama and Florida have booked their tickets to what is sure to be a monumental SEC Championship game. To the victor will likely go the spoils: a ticket to Miami and the chance to win a national title.
The pundits have penciled in the Gators for Miami. Here’s why they might be wrong.
1. Florida’s big wins against teams that Alabama could only sneak by don’t matter as much as they seem to.
Sure, Florida has routed at least two teams that Alabama squeaked by. ‘Bama took its sweet time in putting away Kentucky, winning by a single score, while the Gators beat the Wildcats by more than eight touchdowns. Florida also beat LSU by 30 points, while the Tigers took the Tide to overtime.
However, those games may not be as meaningful as they seem on paper. ‘Bama’s matchup against Kentucky was mostly a letdown following their huge win at Georgia, and the LSU thriller was at Death Valley in the middle of a media maelstrom concerning Coach Nick Saban’s return to Baton Rogue.
The other head-to-head matchups look better for the Tide.
2. Outside the flukes, ‘Bama matches up well with the Gators against common opponents.
Alabama beat Tennessee 29-9, a 20-point spread. Florida beat the Vols 30-6, a 24-point spread, giving the Gators only a four-point advantage. The Tide makes up this advantage when one looks at the two teams’ Arkansas matchups.
‘Bama beat Arkansas 49-14, a 35-point spread. Florida, on the other hand, beat the Razorbacks 38-7, only a 31-point spread. This is despite the fact that the Gators went to Fayetteville looking for revenge in the wake of their humiliating loss to Ole Miss.
Speaking of Ole Miss, the Rebels beat the Gators 31-30. The Tide beat Ole Miss 24-20.
The only other common opponent is Georgia. Sure, Florida looked good beating the Bulldogs 49-10, while ‘Bama only won 41-30. Compare the halftime scores, though, and a different picture emerges. ‘Bama was up 31-0 at the break, while Florida was up by less than two scores, 14-3.
It also bears mentioning that the Tide played Georgia in Athens, while Florida got the Bulldogs on a neutral field.
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