I really believe one of two long shots is going to win today's Grade One Test at Saratoga. This seven-furlong stakes race features 6-5 favorite Turbulent Descent for trainer Mike Puype.
To be honest, Turbulent Descent is a nice horse but I don't think this 3-year-old filly should be such a heavy favorite. Yes, she has five wins in seven career starts, but four of those wins are over the synthetic surfaces in California.
Ava K. is 20-1 and appears to be very dangerous at her odds. This Michael Hushion-trained 3-year-old has won her last two starts but I don't like the fact that Ramon Dominguez opts off of her in favor of Roman Treasure.
American Lady is 5-1 and is the least experienced horse in this race. With two wins in three career starts, this Bob Baffert horse appears poised to take another step forward but it might not be enough. She will sit off the pace and make a move in the stretch but I don't think she has enough to win.
Roman Treasure is very puzzling. This talented sprinter is also trained by Michael Hushion and keeps Ramon Dominguez aboard. At 15-1, this horse will be the front-runner and the horse to catch. I'm not completely sold that seven furlongs is her best distance though.
I think Coax Liberty is another interesting long shot. I love her last win, a two-length win at Belmont in 1:23.1. She's losing six pounds off that race and should be the coming late. I'm not thrilled with her two previous races at Saratoga but her last race does make her an exotics play.
Savvy Supreme has run four solid races in five career starts but this is a very tough spot for her. I think this filly will be near the pace early but will falter late.
Pomeroys Pistol is one of my co-favorites. At 8-1, this horse appears to have found her groove and should be a major stretch threat with John Velazquez. The blistering three-furlong work at Monmouth in 35 flat has me expecting big things today.
Her Smile is the second choice in this $250,000 race and she's the real closer in this field of nine. Javier Castellano was brilliant aboard her in the Grade One Prioress win on July 4 and she will tough to beat despite the added six pounds today.
I really like Salty Strike in this race but she's a risky play. At 12-1, she has just three wins in eight career starts but most of her defeats were early in her racing career. With two wins in her last three starts, including a monster seven furlong win at Churchill Downs in 1:22.2, I think this filly stays right off the lead early and holds off the field to win.
Salty Strike over Pomeroys Pistol and Her Smile in 1:22.4.
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