UFC 133 Ortiz vs Evans: Where Does Everyone Fit in the Title Picture at 205lbs?

2011 has been an interesting year for the light heavyweight division. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua was expected to defend his title against number one contender Rashad Evans, but a knee injury in practice forced Evans off of the card. 

Rising star Jon "Bones" Jones was paired to face Ryan Bader and won the bout by second round submission. After the bout it was announced that Jones would go on to face Shogun for the light heavyweight Championship. Jones won that fight in dominating fashion. 

Post-fight, it was announced that Jones would defend his belt against former teammate Rashad Evans. This led to the start of a rivalry. They were set to fight at UFC 133, but Jones withdrew due to a "hand" injury. Rashad was then set to face Phil Davis, but less than two weeks later Jones announced that his hand didn't need surgery and that he would defend his belt in October. 

At UFC 132, Tito Ortiz was fighting for his job. In the first round he caught Ryan Bader with a right hand, Bader went down, Ortiz locked him in a guillotine and won his first fight in over four years. One week later, Phil Davis withdrew from his fight with Evans due to injury. Machida agreed to the bout, then his camp requested "Anderson Silva" money, so then he was no longer on the card. 

The last man anyone ever expected to step up did so. Tito Ortiz has all of the momentum in the world on his side and accepts the fight, and with a win puts him deep into the title picture at 205lbs. If Evans wins he faces the winner of Rampage and Jones at a later date.

Dan Henderson has officially done the impossible. He defeated the greatest fighter of all time, Fedor Emelianenko. Not only did he defeat him, but he knocked him out. Even though many are claiming early stoppage, it still doesn't change the fact that his hand was raised at the end of the fight. That was the last fight on Henderson's Strikeforce contract and Dana White has expressed interest in re-signing Henderson, which could lead to a title unification bout.

Forrest Griffin will face Mauricio "Shogun" Rua at UFC 134. They have fought once before with Griffin winning by third round submission, in what was considered at the time one of the biggest upsets in MMA history. This bout solidifies top five status for the winner, and possibly a title eliminator bout. The winner may face Tito Ortiz if he wins, or even Lyoto Machida. 

That being said, there are just so many questions about the light heavyweight division. Let's take a look and try to get a handle on this. 

UFC 133: Tito Ortiz vs Rashad Evans

Four years and one month ago, these men met at UFC 73. Tito would have won the fight if he hadn't been docked a point. There is a high chance this fight will not go the same, but choosing a winner is a hard task and this should be an excellent fight. 

Where do these men fall in the title picture?

Rashad Evans: With a victory over Ortiz, he is said to be next in line to face the winner of Rampage Jackson and Jon Jones. Rashad was the number one contender for a year and the "injury" of Jones took that away from him, as well as the layoff. 

A loss would be bad in this situation, but could still see him be two wins away from a title shot still. He could face the likes of the loser of Griffin and Shogun, or even the loser of the title fight at UFC 135. But lucky for Rashad, he has had to technically train for three different guys in preparation for 133, so the management may go light on him if he were to lose this one. 

Tito Ortiz: With a win, Tito will be in a great position. Not only will he be in the mix, but he will be top five and most likely earn a title eliminator bout against the winner of Shogun and Griffin. How many people thought there would be in article written in 2011 talking about Tito being in title contention? This is great!

With a loss, Tito will remain in the same position that he has always been in, and that is gatekeeper. He is the stepping stone in the division, and lucky for him has no worries about his job. So Tito is in a win-win situation. 

UFC 134 RIO: Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

This is a rematch from a fight that took place at UFC 76. Both men are former UFC Light Heavyweight Champions, and Griffin won the first bout. Both men hold a victory over Quinton Jackson, who is the number one contender in the division.

Where do these two stack up?

Forrest Griffin and Shogun Rua: With a win, either secures a title eliminator bout. He would most likely fight the loser of Jones and Rampage, Machida or Tito Ortiz if Tito wins. That is legitimately a hard question to answer. 

With a loss, both men would stay at the top, with Forrest facing the likes of a Tito Ortiz if Tito loses and Shogun facing someone like Rich Franklin. Both men would really have to work hard to work back up from a loss, and earning a title shot—especially with the talent that is rising to the surface—will be a tough challenge. 

This is the biggest question mark of all of the bouts at 205. 

Lyoto Machida

Lyoto Machida is in a weird place in the division. He has defeated a solid list of men and is a former Light Heavyweight Champion. He lost to Quinton Jackson at UFC 123. Many questioned the decision, but in all actuality the judges were correct. His next bout he defeated Randy Couture by way of crane kick, in what is one of the top knockouts of the year. 

He was offered a chance to face Rashad Evans for an injured Phil Davis, but after agreeing to the bout, that decision was scratched. So as of now his next opponent is unknown. 

Dan Henderson

Dan Henderson is the hottest free agent on the market. In his final fight on his Strikeforce contract he defeated the greatest fighter of all time, Fedor Emelianenko. Not only did he defeat Fedor, but he KO'd him—he literally did the impossible. He is on a tear, has KO'd his past three opponents in brutal fashion and at the age of 40 doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. 

The UFC has interest for Henderson, possibly unifying the Strikeforce and UFC titles. There is a problem, though. Dan hasn't done well with getting instant title shots in his past. He should sign, fight a guy like Machida and then challenge for the title if he wins. Either way, he has set himself up in what appears to be a win-win situation. 

Quinton Jackson

Quinton Jackson is in a great place in his career and appears to be coming back to the old Rampage of Pride. He defeated Machida and earned the title fight by defeating Matt Hamill. This could be his last chance at greatness. He has had one of the greatest careers in the history of MMA, and is in the top two of greatest Light Heavyweights of all time. We must face facts though, it is hard to earn another shot—and if he doesn't win the belt there is a good chance that he will return to acting. 

If Jackson wins the title, he will have no worries. If he were to lose the belt, he would have a good shot at getting another title shot. He is in a do or die situation, and only Jackson can control his fate. 

Verdict...

So, the title picture is weird, but if there was a UFC ranking it would look as follows: 

*Champion*

Jon Jones

1) Quinton Jackson

2) Rashad Evans

3) Mauricio Rua

4) Lyoto Machida

6) Forrest Griffin

7) Tito Ortiz

8) Dan Henderson *

* Henderson isn't under contract yet. 

Within the next couple of months the rankings will definitely change, and for all we know we may see someone get a title shot that we never expected to see. But there is only one way to find out, and that is to sit back, relax and enjoy the fights!