College Football Line Moves for Week 11, 11/8/08
Every week we have seen there are more than a handful of games where the margin of victory falls right around the number the Odds makers have set—these guys are pros for a reason.
In any event, every week we have looked at these numbers and talk about if these line movements create any opportunities one way or another. The public is far from always being right when a line is moving one way or another, but it's still interesting to see which direction and how far they are willing to push things.
In a day where an on air announcers can move a point spread several points in minutes and an injury announcement gets out and reverses an entire trend, having the information in a timely manner is key and while I try and stay on top of it all the best I can I know that I am far from a news reporting agency and I don't pretend to be one.
We are trying something new today (nothing new about that) and I am going to be updating my commentary video through out the day to cover a series of games in each time slot starting with 3:12 EST games. Be sure to check back throughout the day as I'll be updating at least once though the plan is for at least twice but as you know, I may even do more than that.
Let's take a look at today's games and see what lines have moved and if we can figure out why and of we can get an edge in a game we're not already on.
Wisconsin is favored over Indiana by 10 after opening at 8. Indiana has only covered once all season and Wisconsin seems to be playing better lately.
Michigan State is favored by 9 1/2 over Purdue after opening at 11. Personally, I don't think it matters all that much in this one.
Minnesota is favored by 7 1/2 over Michigan after opening at 9. Maybe playing for the Little Brown Jug wakes up the sleeping Wolverines?
Texas is favored by 27 1/2 over Baylor after opening at 25. This was one of the games featured and picked in the free newsletter this week.
Illinois is favored by 8 over Western Michigan after opening at 6. I didn't pick this game but the Illini have been a good week/bad week team and last week was a good week.
Georgia is favored by 12 1/2 at Kentucky after opening at 9. We'll see how Georgia bounces back against Rich Brook's stingy defense.
Tennessee is favored by 27 1/2 against Wyoming after opening at 24. It's the end of the road this season for Phil Fulmer, do the Vols send him out with a strong finish to the season?
Kansas opened as a three-point favorite at Nebraska and is now a 1 1/2 point underdog. This looks like a trap of sorts, but I'm still on Kansas.
Florida State opened as a 6 1/2 point favorite over Clemson and the line is now down to 3 1/2. FSU is having it's share of problems off the field again and some players won't be available.
North Carolina opened up as a 5 1/2 point favorite over Duke and it's now at 3 1/2. Duke hasn't been winning them all, but they have played some very good football in all f them.
Oklahoma is a 27 1/2 point favorite over Texas A&M after opening at 25. I meant to pick this one this week and never did so put me down for the Sooners big with a seven out of 10 on the confidence rating scale.
Go here for the rest of this weeks Las Vegas line and point spread moves.
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