Summer at Saratoga: Preview and Predictions for the Grade II Jim Dandy

While most of the attention is garnered by Shackelford and Ruler On Ice at Sunday’s Haskell Invitational, this Saturday’s Jim Dandy will feature an equally matched field of seven contenders.

The $500,000 Jim Dandy will be the 10th race on an 11-race card that will begin at 1 p.m. EST and includes the Grade 1 Diana Stakes for older fillies and mares on the turf.

Both races will be part of the second weekend of the “Summer at Saratoga” coverage by the NBC Sports Group. They will be televised live on the cable network Versus beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern.

The Jim Dandy is a race that cannot be overlooked. Seven of the last 12 Travers winners have used this race as preparation. The $1,000,000 Grade I Travers Stakes will be run here in Saratoga on Aug. 27.

The field of seven in the Jim Dandy will be headlined by the favorite, Repole Stable’s Stay Thirsty. Fresh off his second place finish to Ruler On Ice in the Belmont Stakes, he has the edge in the odds here. And if you consider that race as the measure stick he should.

Familiarity with the track could also help. He won a maiden race here last August by 5 1/2 lengths and finished second to Boys At Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful.

Before his Belmont Stakes race, Stay Thirsty, began his three-year-old season with a victory in the Grade III Gotham at Aqueduct. He then disappointed with a seventh place finish in the Florida Derby and his 12th in the Kentucky Derby.

Second favorite is the up and coming, Grade II Dwyer Stakes winner Dominus. Owned by George Bolton, Stonestreet Stables, and Spendthrift Farm’s, he went wire-to-wire last July 2 in Belmont in the Dwyer.

Before that he broke his maiden with a five and one-quarter length win at Santa Anita. Then in April 30, he was the pace setter in the Grade II Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial, and was caught at the finish line by Machen.

Dominus is the speed of this race and will be looking to wire the field under Julien Leparoux. He has three workouts for this race and seems ready for the challenge.

The third favorite is Pin Oak’s Alternation. He was a Triple Crown hopeful after breaking his maiden by seven lengths at Remington Park in December and then followed that up with consecutive allowance wins at Oaklawn Park to start 2011.

He was considered one of the favorites at the Grade II Rebel on March 19 but was scratched after acting out in the starting gate. He returned for the Grade I Arkansas Derby and had a terrible start being last in the early going. He made a non-threatening charge to finish fifth.

In his last time out, Alternation also didn’t break well at the Grade II Peter Pan on May 14. But with a new rider, Eclipse Award winner Ramon Dominguez, ran down Adios Charlie and won by a head at finish line.

He was taken out of consideration for the Belmont in order to have him ready for the second half of the season, and here he is as the third favorite to win. He shows a prep workout in Saratoga July 23 at five furlongs in 1:01 3/5.

Then we have the only Grade I winner, Live Oak’s Plantation Brilliant Speed. He comes from finishing third in the Belmont Stakes after looking like the winner at the top of the home stretch.

Many have pointed to Joel Rosario’s ride as the reason for not winning it, not me. It was just racing.

He won the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby before his third place in the Belmont Stakes. He will carry top weight of 123 pounds.

Completing the field are Scotus, winner of the Grade III Matt Winn on June 18 at Churchill Downs, Moonshine Mullin, winner of the Victoria Park Stakes at Woodbine, and Will's Wildcat, who is also cross-entered in the Curlin Stakes on Friday, finished fourth in the Long Branch Stakes.

I see the race with Dominus taking the early lead followed by Will’s Wildcat and Moonshine Mullin. Stay Thirsty and Scotus will stalk the lead pack while John Velazquez and Ramon Dominguez play cat and mouse with Brilliant Speed and Alternation in the back.

I can see Javier Castellano moving Stay Thirsty at mid back stretch towards second and stalk Dominus trying to make Julien Leparoux use a bit from Dominus with about four furlongs to go. Brilliant Speed and Alternation making up ground at this point.

With three furlongs to go, I see Stay Thirsty right to the side of Dominus with Brilliant Speed and Alternation about three behind and gaining.

At the top of the home stretch Stay Thirsty keeps fighting with Dominus, but Brilliant Speed and Alternation move past them in a fight to the finish between the nation’s two leading jockeys.

My prediction winner for this race is Brilliant Speed by about a length over Alternation. John Velazquez knows this horse very well, having finished second by a nose at the Dania Beach and third by a neck in the Hallandale Beach at Gulfstream in January.

While Stay Thirsty, Dominus and Alternation have all improved their Beyer’s in their last three races, Brilliant Speed has done it on the 90’s all three times. He is the only Grade I winner and has been lightly worked for this race. I expect a big race from him.

Here is the field with horses, jockeys, weight, trainers and odds for the $500,000 Grade II Jim Dandy. It will be the 10th race with a post time at 5:45 p.m. EST, run at a mile and one-eighth on dirt.

1. Moonshine Mulli, Emma-Jayne Wilson, 117, Reade Baker, 15-1

2. Dominus, Julien R Leparoux, 121, Steven M Asmussen, 3-1

3. Brilliant Speed, John R Velazquez, 123, Tom Albertrani , 7-2

4. Scotus, Alan Garcia, 119, Ken G McPeek, 8-1

5. Will's Wildcat, Robby Albarado, 117, James E Baker, 15-1

6. Stay Thirsty, Javier Castellano, 119, Todd A Pletcher, 5-2

7. Alternation, Ramon A Dominguez, 121, Donnie K Von Hemel, 7-2