Mitch's Week 11 College Football Picks Part Three

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Mitch's Week 11 College Football Picks Part Three

Does anyone else think that if TCU and Utah were Big 12 and a Pac-10 teams that this would be a nice bowl match up?

What we have tonight is a battle of giants who are monsters on the football field and in the record books, but dwarfs in the media and public relations department.

TCU and Utah don't fit in with the TV networks agenda of all of the best teams being in BCS conferences, but they fit in for football fans as they produce just a great product on the field.

While college football isn't a perfect world, I think this match up shapes up to be one that can produce the type of game that people who scream for a playoff and inclusion of the "other conferences" can use as a point of reference all off season.

Personally, I'm on the edge of my seat writing this as I can't wait to see the hitting that is going to go down in this one.

It wouldn't be one of my write ups if I didn't plug the free newsletter and free picking contest, so here it is. It is my hope and intention that Jordan and his 65-28 record against the spread this year will be throwing us a bonus pick in the newsletter as well, if not this week, then next, but I'll update that status in the forum and in tomorrow's post. 

But, so far, I haven't found anyone who objected to another pick from Jordan. Remember, it's all free and takes about 20 seconds to sign up, you also get some free goodies that includes a weekly entry into the picking contest where you can win a gift card from one of our sponsors.

OK, here's the picks.


TCU (-2) at Utah (Thursday 11/6/08, 8 EST) 4 out of 10

If this game were not on a Thursday, I wouldn't even venture a guess on it. I have been on TCU the past few weeks as I have felt they were pretty much the easiest picks on the board.

TCU has been playing extremely well, really as well if not better than just about anyone in the country. The Frogs use the two things which I feel are a sure fire ways to success on the football field: great defense and a solid running game—two things that, no matter what twists and turns the landscape of the game takes over the years, seem to always be important. I would take the TCU defense over just about anyone this year.

On the the other side of the ball is Utah who is undefeated and pretty quietly has positioned themselves for a possible BCS bowl bid. Not so surprisingly Utah has been winning using the running game and a defense that ranks in the top 20 in all categories.

The biggest stumbling blocks for the Utes are this game and then the Holy War against BYU. Don't think for a second the Utes don't know the importance of this one, this is a program who has been there before and most of the players on the roster were recruited following the Utes BCS win in the Fiesta a few years back.

Utah has beaten and covered against TCU the last 2 years including last year's game in Fort Worth. This series doesn't have a history of high scoring games and this one doesn't figure to be one either.

These are two strong programs and we have the strong trends you would expect from such types of teams. TCU is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10, 22-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 conference games, and 13-6-1 in their last 20 against teams with a winning record.

Utah is 7-3-1 against the spread in their last 11 conference games, 4-1 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record, but just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games on a Thursday night including earlier this year against Oregon State.

I think this one may come down to turnovers and Utah is the team that turns it over more, so I'll take TCU small.

 

Go here for the rest of Mitch's Week 11 part 3 College Football Picks Against the Spread

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