When TCU and Utah square off in Salt Lake City, it will perhaps be the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history. Never before have two teams from the conference met each other so late in the year with both having a legitimate shot at the BCS—Utah for its second time and TCU trying to make its first trip to the big party.
Regardless of the outcome, it would be a win-win situation for either team if the winning opponent could make it to a BCS game. It would bring more prestige and more money to the conference, and it would get the human voters even more used to the idea of non-BCS teams being good enough to make it to a BCS bowl.
Most intriguing—unless you are a Ute fan—would be TCU going to a BCS bowl with one loss. This would actually benefit every non-BCS team and make it that much easier for a one-loss team to make it next time.
It is the camel’s nose under the tent. The flap has to be raised a little at a time so that eventually non-BCS power teams, such as Boise State or BYU, can eventually play in a national championship.
Whatever the outcome, the game should be close and fun to watch. On paper the teams are pretty evenly matched up. Their offenses both have balanced attacks and move the ball about the same number of yards per game, just over 405, while both defenses have been stubborn in giving up yards.
The Horned Frogs, however, have had much more success in preventing opponents from scoring, allowing just over 10 points per game, whereas the Utes are giving up a little over 17 per contest. Meanwhile, each offensive unit is scoring over 36 points per game.
Perhaps because TCU’s defense is so highly regarded and has the stats to merit it, the purple and white are slight favorites according to the oddsmakers. Utah, though ahead of TCU all season in the polls and more recently in the BCS standings, will be a two- to four-point underdog on its own field.
However, with two such evenly matched teams, you have to look to two components to determine the winner: turnovers and special teams. TCU has the edge on turnovers, being plus-15 on the season, while Utah is only plus-one.
Turnovers, however, can be streaky, and even a team with a great plus margin can go into a game and suddenly have all its luck run out. Still, we have to consider that with Andy Dalton playing carefully, TCU should do OK.
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