Fantasy Baseball: Can You Trust Jhoulys Chacin?

Jhoulys Chacin has hit a major speed bump on his road to fantasy stardom. After going 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA in his first 15 starts, he’s gone 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA over his past five. He did have a hard luck loss in the mix in which he allowed just one run over seven innings to the Nationals, but the other four starts have been disasters.

With his recent string of bad outings can you continue to trust him? If last year is any indication then the answer is “yes.”

Chacin’s 2010 season is eerily similar to last year.

From April through June Chacin was cruising. He was 4-7, but had a solid 3.51 ERA. Then Chacin fell apart in July going 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA. Jhoulys then gathered himself to finish strong going 4-3 in August and September with a brilliant 2.13 ERA.

One of Chacin’s main problems has been his control. His month walks/inning ratio has increase each month from 2.38 in April to 3.92 in May to 4.83 in June and now 5.87 ERA. It’s hard to be successful when you are issuing that many free passes.

One sabermetric that could work against him is his BABIP. Even during his terrible July his monthly mark is .234, which actually increased his yearly mark to a still impressive .227. Considering he was .283 for Triple-A Colorado Spring and .285 for the Rockies, one would think that his luck would run out, which could lead to a rise in his peripheral numbers.

His next start comes against the Dodgers. He’s facing Clayton Kershaw so a win in not a strong possibility, but he could return to form. I’m not quite willing to write him off, but I would certainly hesitate to you him against a potent offense until he proves otherwise.

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