2011 MLB Trade Deadline: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Must Trade Vance Worley

In the summer of 1987, the Atlanta Braves traded Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a minor leaguer by the name of John Smoltz. In the short term, the trade worked out great for the Tigers, as Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 88.1 innings down the stretch as the Tigers outlasted the Toronto Blue Jays by two games to win the American League East division.

Smoltz, of course, went on to a career with the Atlanta Braves that some people think may one day land him in the Hall of Fame, and the trade has gone down in baseball history as one of the great trade-deadline cautionary tales.

With the 2011 Philadelphia Phillies in "go-for-broke" mode and desperately needing a right-handed bat, the Smoltz-for-Alexander deal must weigh heavily on the minds of Phillies fans as they ponder the fate of their young pitching sensation, Vance Worley.

Worley, of course, is having a dream season thus far for the Phillies. Having started 10 games in the place of the injured Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton, Worley has gone 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 62.1 innings pitched. On a team with three Cy Young caliber pitchers, it is Worley who leads the Phillies starters with 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings and is tied for the team lead with 6.9 hits per nine innings.

Indeed, Worley has succeeded beyond the Phillies' wildest expectations.  And, on a team thought to have an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department, suddenly trading this young man who did not figure in any way into the Phillies' rotation plans at the beginning of the season is seeming like a potential Smoltzian mistake. 

Let us not delude ourselves.

Worley is, in fact, having a dream season thus far in 2011, and his success has, in fact, been beyond the Phillies' wildest expectations.  At the same time, though, such magical success beyond all expectations in baseball usually turns out to be, for lack of a better word, a fluke.

In this case, there are a variety of reasons to suspect that what Worley is doing is not sustainable.

If I may be a stat-head for a minute, Worley's numbers have, to this point, been deceptively less than dominant.  Along with his eye-popping win-loss record and ERA, Worley has less-than-dominant peripheral stats.  For example, his success largely seems to stem from his low hits allowed numbers; as noted above, he leads the team with 6.9 hits allowed per nine innings pitched.

However, hits depend a great deal upon defense, and the Phillies have a good one.  Walks and strikeouts, on the other hand, depend on the pitcher, and in this department, Worley has been mediocre.  His 1.85-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio is average, his 3.8 walks allowed per nine innings is actually quite bad, and his 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings are hardly remarkable.

According to Fangraphs.com, Worley's ERA when removing the elements that are impacted by the defense, or FIP, would be closer to 3.00, which is closer to league average, and his "xFIP," which is fielding independent ERA even more regressed for home ballpark, is up around 4.00.

So yikes.

To build upon what Worley's peripheral stats are telling us about his performance, consider the fact that Worley has never done what he is doing now at the minor league level.

Generally speaking, pitchers are who they are, and they do not suddenly out-perform their minor league selves upon arriving at the major league level. In the minor leagues, Worley was two games over .500 for his career, at 25-23, with a 3.80 ERA. He allowed roughly a hit per inning (8.9), and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio below 3-to-1.

In the major leagues, Worley has been a very different pitcher. His record and his ERA are both wildly out of sync with the pitcher he has always been. But what is particularly distracting are Worley's hits allowed. Through 62.1 innings, he has allowed 48 hits, or 6.9 hits per nine innings. As noted above, he is tied with Cole Hamels for the team lead in this category, but he has never performed particularly well in this category in the past.

It is entirely possible that this number has as much to do with the Phillies' defense as it does with Worley himself. It is also entirely possible that this number is a result of the fact that there is no “book” on Worley yet, and that as he passes through the league the first time around, Major League hitters have not been able to scout him out just yet, as so often happens with young pitchers.

If this is the case, then it is only a matter of time before that number starts to rise.

Consider also that Worley is succeeding in a pretty low-stress, pitcher-friendly context right now.

Think about the subjectives: the Phillies are a juggernaut right now, replete with veteran hitters, elite pitchers, and a speeding train bullpen which suddenly can do no wrong despite a myriad of early season injuries.

He has a veteran defense behind him, he has a rock-solid bullpen closing for him and, unlike Cole Hamels, he has an offense that has been showing up for him. The Phillies have scored three or more runs in seven out of Worley's 10 starts, and five or more runs in six of those starts.

All of this adds up to easy, stress-free, low-impact pitching for the young man, and it is a scenario that has lent itself to success.  But such success is not the type of think a team can, or should, bank on for the future.

Unfortunately, the important point here is that at the end of the day, Worley's performance is a double-edged sword.

With the Four Aces plus Blanton in town at the beginning of the season, Worley must have been seen as a potential trade-chip if the team needed to make a move. Thus, it has been fully in the Phillies' interest for Worley to perform well in order to drive up his trade value. However, at this point it is entirely possible that he has performed almost too well, to the point of potentially making himself too valuable to be parted with.

And this is a potential mistake, and not just because Worley's success may be a fluke.

Let's say, just for argument's sake, that Worley has a John Smoltz-type career ahead of him, and that trading Worley could get the Phillies one dominant Doyle Alexander-type performance this season in return for a Smoltz-type career over the next 20 years.

At the end of the day, this brings us to the unsaid truth regarding the Smoltz-for-Alexander trade:

It was the right deal to make, and if you are the Detroit Tigers, you make that deal everytime.

When a team has a potential winner on its hands, a team with a real shot at a World Series title, it is time to go all in.  It is not time to worry about tomorrow; there is no tomorrow.

And that is where the Phillies are today.  It is not the time for the Phillies to worry about tomorrow or the day after that or the day after that. This is the time for the Phillies to worry about today, and to give themselves the best opportunity to win a World Series championship with their once-in-a-lifetime team.

If the Phillies have the chance to trade a guy who has a Smoltz-type career ahead of him in exchange for a Carlos Beltran or a Hunter Pence, then the Phillies must absolutely do so.

But fear not, Phillies fans: despite the fact that he is currently pitching the lights out, Worley is no Smoltz. He is a solid pitcher over-achieving during his first time through the league in a low-stress context.

This is a no-brainer. It is time for the Philadelphia Phillies to trade Worley while his value is peaking, and go out and win a World Series.