MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking Down Deadline Deals in the NL Central

Divisional races in Major League Baseball don't get much more competitive than the one that's unfolding before our very eyes in the National League Central.

Four teams—the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Milwaukee Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds—currently sit within four games of each other, and with the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching, it appears as though all four will be digging in for the long haul.

The stakes are particularly high for these four teams given that three of them won't even sniff the postseason, thanks to the Atlanta Braves and their virtual stranglehold on the NL Wild Card berth.

So how did we stumble upon this fine and entertaining mess in the NL Central? And what can and should each team do to give itself the best chance to be the last one standing when the first pitch is thrown in October?

Cincinnati Reds

What better place to begin than in Cincinnati, where the Reds, defending champions of the NL Central, have been something of a disappointment, however mildly so, thus far through the 2011 season.

All signs pointed to Dusty Baker's bunch bouncing back from an early postseason exit in 2010 with a strong push in 2011, though such an effort has yet to materialize at the Great American Ballpark.

The Reds haven't won consecutive games since mid-June, when they swept the Dodgers in Los Angeles, due in large part to the inconsistent performance of their pitching staff thus far.

Cincy currently ranks 22nd in the majors in team ERA at 4.06 and has had such problems with their starting staff that the recently called up Dontrelle Willis from the minors to lend a hand.

In a word, yikes!

The team's bullpen has held up remarkably well thus far but will likely run into problems if the starters don't help themselves a bit more and toss a few more quality innings than they already have.

In the meantime, the Reds can take comfort in their offense which, led by reigning NL MVP Joey Votto and All-Stars Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips, is one of the best in all of baseball and has allowed the club to remain competitive despite its pitching woes.

Even so, GM Walt Jocketty is still looking for a bat, though his team's biggest need is clearly on the mound, or at least that would seem to be the case.

The Reds' staff has stepped up their game since the All-Star break, sporting an ERA of 2.65, while the offense has been among the worst in the NL over that very same span.

Pitching still remains a priority for Cincy, though, which is precisely why they've already been mentioned in connection with Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez and Rays right-hander James Shields while carefully monitoring Mariners arms Doug Fister and Jason Vargas.

The Reds may also be in the market for another reliever or two, but look for them to go hard after a starting pitcher as they continue to try to figure out who they are exactly on the field.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Reds edged the Cardinals for the NL Central crown last season, though it now appears feasible that neither will play a part in how the division is decided this time around.

Until then, count St. Louis in as buyers at the deadline.

For GM John Mozeliak, the stakes of a move are that much higher when considering that each and every maneuver will be carefully considered by superstar first baseman Albert Pujols, who will be a free agent at season's end and will likely prefer to spend the remainder of his peak playing days with a franchise that is serious about winning pennants and World Series rings.

Like the Reds, the Cards find themselves abundantly productive on offense but woefully thin on the mound, where Jaime Garcia has emerged as the club's most consistent starter while Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook have underperformed, for the most part.

St. Louis has already shown a willingness to sacrifice some of its offensive firepower for a quality arm, having reportedly discussed a deal with the Rays that would send talented by thickheaded outfielder Colby Rasmus to Tampa Bay in exchange for the young arm of Jeremy Hellickson.

That attempt might well pave the way for the Cards to snag James Shields, though perhaps without sacrificing Rasmus in the process. St. Louis has also been hot on the trail of San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell, who will almost undoubtedly move by the deadline for a hefty price.

Whether the Cardinals are willing to pay such a price to improve their pitching remains to be seen, though at just a game back of the division lead, and with Pujols anxiously awaiting free agency, they would be well advised to explore making such sacrifices to improve their chances of sneaking into the postseason.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers made it clear before the start of the 2011 season that they were in it to win it this year when they shipped off the farm to acquire former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals.

And while it's clear that the trade for Greinke (4.84 ERA) has yet to work out as GM Doug Melvin had originally hoped, the Brew Crew are still clearly in the race for the long haul.

The Brewers fired the first warning shot to their NL Central competitors just moments after the conclusion of the 2011 MLB All-Star Game, when they practically bought reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the financially floundering New York Mets and quickly restructured his deal thereafter.

The sense of urgency has grown considerably at Miller Park now that it's clear the team won't offer All-Star slugger Prince Fielder a contract extension before he hits the market in the winter, where he'll look to cash in on the mega-millions left on the table by whichever teams fall flat in the Albert Pujols sweepstakes.

In the meantime, Milwaukee's homer-happy offense will have to carry the day while Melvin does his best to improve the team's deplorable defense (25th in fielding percentage) and petulant pitching (21st in ERA).

The Brewers are reportedly already on the lookout for help along the left side of their infield, with Dodgers utility man Jamey Carroll as a strong and rather affordable option for the club.

Starting pitching will be much more difficult to come by, but expect the Brew Crew to be in the mix for the same cast of characters that every other contender has already shortlisted.

When push comes to shove, though, Melvin will have to weigh carefully whether to outbid his competitors or pull back and stick with what he has, as this may be the last legitimate opportunity his team will have to make a run at a World Series title for quite some time.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Last but not least, we come to the Pittsburgh Pirates, also known as the biggest surprise in all of baseball in quite some time.

And quite some time it's been since the Bucs were worth discussing as a postseason hopeful.

Manager Clint Hurdle has the Pirates playing their best ball in nearly two decades, since Barry Bonds last stalked the outfield at the old Three Rivers Stadium.

All-Star outfielder Andrew McCutchen has taken on a similar leadership role at PNC Park with this Pittsburgh team, though the lineup around him is decidedly devoid of any productive pop whatsoever.

The Pirates rank 25th in the majors in runs and home runs and 23rd in team batting average. Furthermore, the Bucs will be without young left fielder Jose Tabata for a while longer as he continues to struggle with a strained quadriceps.

Naturally, then, GM Neal Huntington is keeping his eye out for an outfield bat.

Pittsburgh would be hard-pressed to outbid the likes of the cross-state Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox for Carlos Beltran, and Houston Astros All-Star Hunter Pence may come at too step a price, both in terms of salary and pieces given up.

Being the cash-strapped club that they are, the Pirates might instead opt for a more affordable bat in a deal to bring back another reliever.

Should that be the case, Oakland and San Diego stand out as the most likely suitors, with the A's offering slugger Josh Willingham and say, Craig Breslow or Andrew Bailey, and the Padres putting forth Ryan Ludwick and one of their stud relievers, most likely Heath Bell or Mike Adams.

The biggest concern, though, may be Pittsburgh's front office, which might demonstrate a somewhat comical lack of experience in dealing for quality players at the deadline after having sloughed off so many of their own to other contending clubs over the years.

That being said, the Bucs would be remiss if they didn't give it their all to make a serious run some solid players to boost their postseason odds after going so long without even the faintest glimmer of hope for success since the early 1990s.

Who Will Come Out On Top?

If you haven't figured it out already, there really isn't any one favorite that stands out from among the crowd in the NL Central. Each team sports serious chinks in its armor along with a distinct inability to sustain any string of success long enough to take a stranglehold over its competitors.

Surprisingly enough, the Pirates should be the favorites thanks to their superb pitching and defense, but their lack of offensive production and pennant race experience doesn't bode well for their chances in the long run.

The Brewers have the exact opposite problem, which figures to be just as damning to their chances, if not more so.

The smart money here is on either the Cardinals or the Reds, though St. Louis holds the clear edge for now thanks their close proximity to the lead in the division and their potential to pitch exceedingly well on any given night.

Of course, this could all change if one or more of these four finish July with a bang, on the field or at the trade deadline.

We'll just have to wait and see how it all unfolds over the next week or so.