2011 Copa America: Semifinals Preview and Predictions

If you are reading this right now it is for only one of two reasons:

1) You did not read my earlier article titled "2011 Copa America: First Knockout Round Preview and Predictions" or 2) you did read that article and you are coming back to me to find out who I picked so you can bet opposite and make some money.

The fact that I picked wrong is not as much about recognizing that perhaps I know nothing as a football analyst, but more a testament to why Copa America eclipses all other federation tournaments as the best in the world.

Out of the four games I picked only Venezuela's upset over the red-hot Chileans correctly. So what if I did because I needed to throw an upset in there somewhere and one of my best friends is Venezuelan, I was still right.

But with now the two favorites gone and really only one team left that has a substantial list of recognizable talent, the tournament has become wide open and truly any one can win.

Peru vs. Uruguay

July 19th at 8:45pm EDT, in La Plata

Peru

Of all the quarterfinals matchups this is perhaps the only one that is not seen as a true upset. Though Colombia was a slight favorite, Peru held their own throughout the game and eventually came away with a 2-0 win in extra time. Mental errors and poor finishing were the death of the Colombians.

Peru went from being the second to last team into the knockout rounds to the best defensive side left. A shut out against the high powered attack of Colombia keeps their goals against at two. They will have to really continue that defense if they want to make the finals.

There offense has been the opposite of their defense and statistically is tied for last with Uruguay with only four scored. It took a mistake from Colombia goalkeeper Luis Enrique Martinez as he mishandled a ball and took down his own defender trying to clear the ball for the Peruvian's to score. The second would come on counter as Colombia pushed forward to tie the game.

Other than those, legitimate scoring opportunities were few and far between for Peru. They will need to figure out how to unlock the defense against Uruguay if they want to continue to the finals.

Uruguay

Uruguay find themselves in the semis by way of a shootout victory over hosts and favorites Argentina. The win may have been through the lottery that is penalties, but it was well earned after withstanding the Argentinian offense and keeping Lionel Messi caged up for most of the match.

Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan have been one of the best tandems in the tournament, but struggled against Argentina. You would not expect this to hold up and that they will find their stride once again against Peru and be a constant threat to the back four.

Porto defender also featured well, but in the midfield for his national side. He was a great link between the defense and the front line, as well as provided some good crosses from out wide.

With that said, Messi had his way in the middle of the pitch. His dribbles opened space for the wingers and forward Higuain, but they were unable to finish more than once, despite ten shots on goal. Peru has no one like Messi on their side, but Uruguay will still have to hold strong defensively to progress.

Prediction

Both teams needed extra time to get to the semis. Uruguay will go into the match as the heavy favorites of not only the game, but the rest of the tournament. They are the only side that truly has long standing history of success. They are also the only squad with a majority of recognizable names that compete at the top levels of European club ball.

Peru is the only side left in the tournament that has a mark in the loss column. But they have put that all behind them to make it this far. Catching some good fortune by facing Colombia rather than Argentina has also certainly played into this.

They played each other in the first game of the group stage and tied 1-1. Uruguay dominated the game, but wasted a flurry of chances.

This game will probably be heavily controlled by Uruguay as well. Their midfield will dictate the pace. Forlan has been surprisingly quiet throughout this tournament, yet to register a goal. That could end on Tuesday as he has tended to drop back into the midfield. Peru will be dropping back to defend leaving him with space to unleash one of his impressive long range shots.

Peru has a puncher's chance in this game, but have in most of their matches. They have persevered by scoring scrappy goals, but at this stage of the tournament, it is not about how many chances you get, but how many you put away. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.

Uruguay has too much offensive power to be stopped by Peru. They will also be much more sure in the back realizing that other teams have fallen to Peru by getting relaxed in their possession. They should be able to handle the Peruvians as their luck finally runs out, but not before impressing the entire continent.

Paraguay vs. Venezuela

July 20th at 8:45pm EDT in Mendoza

Paraguay

Paraguay really understands the concept of tournament style football: it's all about survival.

Being the last team into the knockout rounds, they got the gift of playing Brazil. Brazil seemed to finally be finding their stride after rolling over Ecuador, but Paraguay would put the brakes on the tournament favorites by forcing them into penalties, where the boys in the yellow jerseys would put on one of the worst shooting displays ever seen in a tournament of this stature.

Paraguay was outplayed the first time the two teams played as well as the second, but both times left the landlocked country walking away with their heads held high. This time found them with those heads pointed toward the semis.

Paraguay will hope to get their star forward Roque Santa Cruz back in time for their match on Wednesday after he was held out today for a thigh injury. He would be a much welcomed sight after the team nearly went the entire match without mustering a single opportunity.

Keeper Justo Villar made a handful of great saves to keep the clean sheet against Brazil. He will not see as much action against Venezuela as he did tonight, but if he is able to make an impressive stop or two, it could greatly help his side.

Venezuela

The Cinderella run continues as Venezuela beat Chile to make it to their first ever semifinals. What is perhaps even more impressive is how they did it.

This was the one game that had the most 'sure' result going into it. Chile had been the most impressive team of the tournament and Venezuela was historically the worst side left. However, La Vinotinto did not play by the script and was the only team to win in regular time. While there win was not in overwhelming fashion, it is difficult to argue that they did not deserve it.

Venezuela may have not been the best or most impressive team, but no one has been as consistent as they have. Since the first game they have played above expectations and for a team that was not even expected to get out of the group, they are now looking at a very winnable semi with a chance to play in the final.

As I mentioned in my previous post, they are a cohesive unit that distributes the ball around offensively and defend together. They are not afraid to shoot from out far what benefit them tonight. The Chilean defense was forced to challenge them from the outside resulting in two free kicks that lead to goals.

Prediction

It would seem somewhat patronizing to refer the Venezuela as a "Cinderella story" still as a win over Paraguay would not necessarily be that much of an upset. The two teams played just two games ago to a thrilling 3-3 tie with three goals scored in the last seven minutes. 

It was the best offensive display for both sides of the whole tournament and an evenly matched contest throughout. This time should be some of the same. There is no reason to suggest that either team will be a shadow of what they were last week.

At the same time however, Venezuela goes into the game with an advantage over Paraguay in the fact that they did not have the physically draining 30 minutes of extra time or the emotionally taxing penalty kicks. If you don't believe that the effects of those will carry over, then at least Venezuela has the luxury of already seeing Paraguay's penalty takers, a slight advantage should this game go as far.

Venezuela will continue their run by earning the biggest win in their countries history, in perhaps one of their easiest games of the tournament. Not as many goals will be scored as in the two teams previous encounter, but expect a back and forth affair that should be the more exciting of the two games to watch.