Creating and Predicting a UFC Lightweight Grand Prix

While Dana White has always said the light heavyweight division is the toughest division in the UFC, it seems like the winds of change are blowing.

The 155-pound division is the deepest division in all of MMA right now, even with former top contenders like BJ Penn and Kenny Florian switching weight classes.

Frankie Edgar leads the pack, but his UFC 136 opponent Gray Maynard is right behind him and guys like Jim Miller and Clay Guida are looking for title shots of their own.

Before his UFC 132 fight with Shane Roller, Melvin Guillard showed some interest in a UFC 155-pound Grand Prix to decide the next contender to Edgar’s crown.

But I think Guillard was thinking too small.

After all, the UFC has always done things the biggest way possible, so why not put the belt on the line?

I made a 16-man bracket of the top 16 lightweights in the UFC, (which is much harder than you think) and decided to give my analysis and predictions for every make believe fight.

As always, if you have a problem with my predictions, my seeding, or even the concept in general, feel free to hit me up in the comments section and I’ll give you the debate you want!

First Round Matchups

1. Frankie Edgar vs 16. George Sotiropoulos

8. Anthony Pettis vs 9. Sean Sherk

5. Ben Henderson vs 12. Joe Lauzon

4. Clay Guida vs 13. Donald Cerrone

2. Gray Maynard vs 15. Charles Oliveira

7. Dennis Siver vs 10. Evan Dunham

6. Melvin Guillard vs 11. Sam Stout

3. Jim Miller vs 14. Rafael dos Anjos

1. Frankie Edgar vs 16. George Sotiropoulos

Breakdown:

Sotiropoulos has the edge in BJJ, Edgar has the advantage pretty much everywhere else.

This would be a fun fight, but after watching G-Sots struggle to get the fight to the ground against Dennis Siver earlier this year, it seems laughable that he could take down Frankie.

Edgar is too quick on the feet for Sotiropoulos to catch him with a punch, and he is smart enough to stay away from the ground game of Sotiropoulos, even though he isn’t at too much of a disadvantage there either.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.

8. Anthony Pettis vs 9. Sean Sherk

Breakdown:

Sherk has become one of the most inactive fighters in the UFC over the last couple of years, but cage rust never seems to be a problem for ‘The Muscle Shark.’

Still, Pettis seems to be the nightmare opponent for Sherk, since he can use his relentless pace and creative striking to keep Sherk guessing long enough to avoid the takedown.

This fight could end up being a lot like Sherk’s fight against Frankie Edgar from UFC 98, with Sherk always just a bit slow during the striking exchanges, leading to an easy decision win for Pettis.

Prediction: Anthony Pettis by Unanimous Decision.

5. Ben Henderson vs 12. Joe Lauzon

Breakdown:

The first round of this fight might end up being one of the most insane rounds in MMA history.

Both guys always come out and fight at a furious pace, but the difference is Henderson’s ability to keep it up for the duration of the fight.

Lauzon is a game competitor, but his cardio issues have plagued him in the past and would likely do the same here if he couldn’t finish the fight quickly.

Prediction: Ben Henderson by second-round TKO

4. Clay Guida vs 13. Donald Cerrone

Breakdown:

This fight comes down to one thing: Is Donald Cerrone better off his back than Anthony Pettis?

Guida tortured Pettis with top control earlier this year, and if Cerrone is unable to pull off a submission from his back, he is likely going to suffer the same fate.

Guida has looked awesome as of late, the move to Greg Jackson’s camp has made him a completely new fighter, and he has a bit too much Ben Henderson in him to make me think Cerrone can beat him.

Prediction: Clay Guida by Split Decision.

2. Gray Maynard vs 15. Charles Oliveira

Breakdown:

This would be a much closer fight than the seeds indicate.

Maynard thrives on top control and ground and pound, but Oliveira has one of the sickest guards in the sport and has shown that he can pull submissions out of absolutely nowhere.

Maynard could opt to keep the fight standing, but Oliveira has shown promise there as well, and it seems likely that in a tournament format, Maynard would want to ride his wrestling to victory.

Maynard still gets the nod, but he would be in trouble at multiple points during the fight.

Prediction: Gray Maynard by Split Decision.

7. Dennis Siver vs 10. Evan Dunham

Breakdown:

Siver has looked like a contender in his last couple fights, especially against George Sotiropoulos at UFC 127.

His striking is crisp, his takedown defense is improving and he has shown no signs of wearing down late in fights, making him a potential knockout artist in the division.

The problem for Siver in this fight is Dunham’s length, and really, his all-around game.

Dunham could dictate where the fight takes place, neutralizing Siver’s offense in the process.

Prediction: Evan Dunham by third-round TKO.

6. Melvin Guillard vs 11. Sam Stout

Breakdown:

This is probably my favorite first round matchup.

Guillard is a serious threat to anyone right now, riding a five-fight win streak with three first-round knockouts in his last four.

Stout is also riding high, getting the first KO of his UFC career back at UFC 131 when he brutally took out Yves Edwards.

This fight would end up being a lot like Stout’s fight against Jeremy Stephens at UFC 113, where he hung in there and landed some shots, but was knocked down several times by the more powerful striker.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard by Unanimous Decision.

3. Jim Miller vs 14. Rafael Dos Anjos

Breakdown:

Jim Miller might be the most under appreciated fighter in MMA right now.

He’s on a seven-fight win streak and owns wins over high quality opponents, but he is still an unknown to the casual fan.

That changes during this first-round matchup.

Miller is in a different class than Dos Anjos, and would likely beat him up on the feet and rock him before earning himself a finish.

Prediction: Jim Miller by first-round TKO.

Second Round Matchups

1. Frankie Edgar vs 8. Anthony Pettis

4. Clay Guida vs 5. Ben Henderson

2. Gray Maynard vs 10. Evan Dunham

3. Jim Miller vs 6. Melvin Guillard

1. Frankie Edgar vs 8. Anthony Pettis

Breakdown:

We might need to watch this fight in slow motion to see what was going on.

These two both bring a furious pace and solid striking to the Octagon, which makes this a fantastic fight to watch, but it’s hard to imagine Pettis pulling this one out.

Unless ‘Showtime’ can land a big punch or kick to finish Edgar, there’s no way Frankie loses this fight.

There would be some awesome flurries and a few sick transitions on the mat, but in the end, Edgar sticks and moves his way to a decision.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.

4. Clay Guida vs 5. Ben Henderson

Breakdown:

There is a whole lot of hair in the Octagon during this one.

This is a dream fight for fans who like a relentless pace and crazy exchanges on the feet, as these two are similar in more ways than just their fabulous manes.

The wrestling is a wash in this fight, and the striking and submissions are eerily close as well, making this the closest fight of the tournament thus far.

Henderson gets the win, mostly because Guida can’t seem to win a split decision to save his life.

Prediction: Ben Henderson by Split Decision.

2. Gray Maynard vs 10. Evan Dunham

Breakdown:

Maynard reminds me of a slightly better version of Tyson Griffin, who Dunham actually beat last year at UFC 115.

Dunham’s advantage in that fight was his ability to control the smaller Griffin and earn a decision, but it’s hard to imagine him being able to out wrestle Maynard.

Maynard’s wrestling-based strategy would likely continue, and he would smash Dunham with some ground and pound, much like Sean Sherk did for a round back at UFC 119.

Prediction: Gray Maynard by Unanimous Decision.

3. Jim Miller vs 6. Melvin Guillard

Breakdown:

One of the most intriguing fights of the tournament takes place in the second round.

Miller has no reason to try and stand with Guillard and he’s usually good at getting fights to the mat, but Melvin’s takedown defense has been excellent the last two years.

It all comes down to Guillard’s takedown defense. If he can keep it standing for more than three minutes, he has the power to knockout anyone in the division, and I think he does it here.

Miller has never been finished, but Guillard can turn anyone’s chin into silly putty and he gets the win here.

Prediction: Melvin Guillard by first-round TKO

Third Round Matchups

1. Frankie Edgar vs 5. Ben Henderson

2. Gray Maynard vs 6. Melvin Guillard

1. Frankie Edgar vs 5. Ben Henderson

Breakdown:

Once again, Frankie Edgar gets a tough and relentless opponent.

Not only is Henderson a former WEC champion, he is a solid wrestler and has some good submissions in his arsenal, especially his guillotine choke, but he is woefully out matched on the feet in this fight.

Edgar has the takedown defense to keep it where he wants it, and his boxing is more than enough to get him into the finals.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision

2. Gray Maynard vs 6. Melvin Guillard

This fight is a lot like Guillard’s quarterfinal fight with Jim Miller, but with one huge difference: Maynard is the best wrestler at 155 pounds.

Guillard only needs a little bit of time on the feet to land a big punch, but Maynard has never really been hurt by punches, and Guillard’s style leaves Maynard only one thing to worry about.

The first minute of each round will be intense, but when it hits the mat, Maynard is at home.

Prediction: Gray Maynard by Unanimous Decision.

Championship Round: 1. Frankie Edgar vs 2. Gray Maynard

Breakdown:

These two are destined to be together.

After three rounds and a trail of 14 bodies in their paths, Edgar and Maynard end up staring at each other for a third time.

It seems anticlimactic and almost too predictable, but these two really are the best in the division.

The last time these two fought, Maynard was able to catch Edgar with a huge punch in the first, a feat that hadn’t been done before and to be honest, I don’t see it happening again.

The wrestling between these two is just about even, with Maynard holding a slight edge, but Edgar wins back some points with his superior cardio.

It’s an impossible fight to call, but I think Edgar avoids the big shot and keeps it on the feet long enough to get the win.

Prediction: Frankie Edgar by Split Decision

Conclusion

This basically told us what we already knew, Edgar is the top guy and it would take a terrible matchup for him to lose.

It was a rather predictable ending, but when you’ve worked your way to the top, it takes a lot to lose that spot and that’s why I awarded Edgar with the belt.

Hopefully, this was a good read and let me know what you guys think in the comments.

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