Jimmie Johnson vs Carl Edwards: With Two Races to Go The Chase Is ON!

Kara MartinSenior Analyst INovember 3, 2008

For the record I am not the biggest fan of Carl Edwards, nor am I terribly enamoured by Jimmie Johnson, but with just two races left in "The Chase" and 106 points separating these two drivers the chase is most definitely on and I am loving it!
Up until this week NASCAR and fans of the No. 48 had all but hired the engraver to etch Johnson's name on the Sprint Cup trophy, but Edwards has proved that he isn't going to go quietly.
Does Carl have what it takes to snatch that Cup right out of Jimmie's hands?
It has been done before, just last year Johnson won four consecutive races late in the Chase coming from 68 points behind Jeff Gordon to winning the championship with 77 points ahead of Gordon.
Let's have a look at the numbers.
Staistically this year they are pretty comparable.
To date Edwards has eight wins, 16 top five finishes, 24 top 10 finishes, and two DNFs; with an average finish of 10.5
Johnson has six wins, 14 top five finishes, 21 top 10 finishes, and one DNF; with an average finish of 10.7.
Clearly they both have the talent and the desire to be the champion.
Let's play with the hypothetical.
If Carl literally drives like he did in Texas next week in Phoenix, he will score 185 points. Add to that five bonus points for leading a lap and an additional five for leading the most laps, he would win with a total of 195 points.
Let's say Jimmie wrecks and ends up in the back of the pack in 43rd place, he will be awarded only 34 points, that would put Carl in first place with an 89 point lead.
If Jimmie were to take second place behind Carl's 195 point victory he would score 170 with the potential of adding five extra bonus points for leading a lap, with a total of 175. Edwards would then trail Johnson by 86 points.
And if things go exactly as they did in Texas with Carl in first place and Jimmie pulling out another 15th place finish, Johnson would be leading by only 29 points.
Of course Edwards could choke next week and all of this fuzzification of mathematical concepts would be a moot point. Also Greg Biffle, just 143 points behind Johnson, can't be ruled out. If the stars align just right he could emerge the victor.
There are endless possibilities and calculations, but with just two to go The Chase for the Sprint Cup is shaping up to be one hell of a wild ride!