UFC 133: Rich Franklin vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Early Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Former UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin and Pride legend Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will meet at UFC 133 in a fight that is scheduled as the co-main event of the evening.

Both competitors are in need of a win.

Franklin is 2-3 in his last five fights with the UFC and is coming off a loss to Forrest Griffin.

Nogueira is 2-2 with the promotion and on a two-fight losing streak.

So, Rich and Antonio both want this win, but who's more likely to get it?

Let's take a look...

Experience

As far as quality of opposition goes, these two are about dead even. The have both faced world-class competition.

However, Franklin is far more used to being in big fights with the UFC and being in high-stakes fights.

Based on that, I expect Rich to have a slight experience advantage.

Edge: Rich Franklin

Cardio

Rich has been in five-round fights before. He is no stranger to going all three rounds and he generally doesn't look tired at the end of fights.

Antonio's cardio didn't look the best in his last two fights, but both of those fights were grinding bouts against wrestlers.

Franklin isn't a grinding sort of wrestler and isn't known for pushing a furious pace, so I don't think he'll tire Nogueira out.

Both guys should be comfortable going three rounds, so I don't see cardio as a factor here.

Edge: Push

Striking

Rich and Nogueira have both stood toe to toe with some of the best in the world.

Both have had trouble with the elite of the elite, Franklin being knocked out by Anderson Silva and Nogueira losing to Mauricio Rua.

Franklin has stood with the likes of Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell and done well against all of them.

Nogueira has banged it out with Dan Henderson and Alistair Overeem and won those fights.

Neither fighter has particularly dynamic stand up and both have KO power. Their reach is also almost identical.

I expect Franklin to better from the outside, as he is a bit better at incorporating kicks into his arsenal, but in the pocket, I think Rogerio will have a slight edge.

All things considered, it should be pretty much even

Edge: Push

Chin

It takes a really big shot to put either of these guys away, but I'd say it takes a bigger one to put Antonio away.

Franklin has been knocked out four times in his career, twice by Anderson Silva, once by Lyoto Machida and once by Vitor Belfort.

Nogueira has only been knocked out only once in his career by Rameau Sokoudjou.

Based on those stats...

Edge: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Grappling

Antonio has very good takedown defense. His last two fights were against high-level wrestlers in the form of Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Both those fighters had a really tough time getting Nogueira down and when they did, they couldn't really do anything with him.

Franklin is also a difficult fighter to get to the ground. He's fought Yushin Okami and Matt Hamill and they both had a very tough time getting him down.

When it comes down to it, I think that these fighters both have good takedown defense and decent takedown offense. I don't think either guy will be able to get the fight to the ground if they decide they want to.

Edge: Push

Submissions

Litlle Nog is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and has six submission victories to his name.

Rich Franklin is brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and actually has 10 submission victories. The thing is, five of them were submissions due to strikes, so those don't really count towards his actual submission skills.

Overall, I'd say it's pretty obvious Rogerio has the advantage. He is a higher-level belt in jiu-jitsu, has more legitimate submission victories and he trains with Blackhouse, where he can train his jiu-jitsu with his older brother Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Anderson Silva.

Edge: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Winner?

This is a really tough fight to call.

As I mentioned earlier, I don't think either fighter will be able to get it to the ground and I don't think either one will want to.

Nogueira has spent his last two fights chiefly on his back and I bet he's itching for a stand-up war.

Franklin isn't going to want to mess with Antonio's jiu-jitsu.

As far as the stand up skills go, it's a very even-looking matchup.

These guys are both in the twilight of their careers and I think who wins will depend on who has deteriorated more since the last time we saw them. Based on their last performances, my money is on that being Rogerio.

This will be a hard-fought match and very close, but...

Winner: Rich Franklin via Split Decision