Predicting the 2011 Southern Conference Football Race

2011 Southern Conference college football predictions:

1. Georgia Southern 
With the return of 19 of 22 starters, the Eagles will look to end ASU's streak of six straight SoCon crowns.

2. Appalachian State
The Mountaineers have the tools to win an unprecedented seventh consecutive SoCon title, and QB DeAndre Presley might bring the third Walter Payton Award back to Boone in the past four seasons.

3. Chattanooga
Russ Huesman continues to rebuild the Chattanooga football tradition, and the Mocs will likely find themselves in the FCS playoffs for just the second time in school history and first time since 1984.

4. Wofford
Terriers have won three SoCon titles in the past seven years and will have a good shot at challenging for another with the return of the league's top running back, Eric Breitenstein, along with 12 other starters.

5. Furman
The good news for Bruce Fowler is that he inherits plenty of talent in his first at the helm, with the return of 15 starters. The bad news is he already has had to deal with some off-the-field issues and must find a way to repair one of the league's worst offensive lines.

6. Elon
Pete Lembo did manage to leave new head coach Jason Swepson with plenty of talent heading into his first season as head coach. But replacing the league's all-time leading passer, Scott Riddle, who graduated, will be the first order of business.

7. Samford
Pat Sullivan enters the season on the hot seat, and he won't have the school's all-time leading rusher Chris Evans to bail out the offense this fall. Sullivan was forced to make some tough decisions in the winter, letting his offensive coordinator Steve Brickey go. But he hired Rhett Lashlee, who served on the Auburn offensive staff under Gus Mazahn as a part of the Tigers' national-title winning team last fall.

8. The Citadel
This will be the first season lining up in the triple-option offense, since the Don Powers era didn't go that well. Expect Kevin Higgins' team to be much improved this fall. Matt Thompson has potential to be a breakout player under center.

9. Western Carolina
Catamount head coach Dennis Wagner joins Samford's Sullivan on the hot seat entering the 2011 season, as he enters his fourth season, with just a 7-27 overall mark. The Catamounts will certainly be shaking things up on offense this fall, transitioning from a West Coast attack to the pistol offense.

2011 Introduction

In ironic fashion, Georgia Southern was the last team to beat the Mountaineers in SoCon play, producing a 38-35 win at Appalachian State on Oct. 20, 2007. Much of the 2011 off-season has been dominated by rumors of Appalachian State making the move to the the Division I, FBS level. Many hold on to the belief that the Mountaineers are on their way to Conference USA, but nothing has been substantiated as of yet.

Appalachian State and Georgia Southern remain tied in one other aspect, as both claim the most consecutive league titles. Last season, Appalachian State was able to claim its sixth straight league title, tying Georgia Southern's six consecutive league crowns from 1997-2002.

Since 2005, the Moutaineers have posted a 71-14 overall mark, producing an impressive 41-6 mark in conference play. The Mountaineers and Eagles will meet on Oct. 29 in a key Southern Conference matchup that will likely decide the league title. Last time the Eagles visited on "Black Saturday," the Mountaineers posted a 52-16 win over the Eagles.

Georgia Southern returns 19 of 22 starters for the 2010 season, and the Eagles should give the Mountaineers their stiffest test over the past six seasons in challenging for the league title. The Eagles will once again be led by a strong ground game led by senior quarterback Jaybo Shaw on offense. Meanwhile, GSU will have Buck Buchanan Award candidate nose tackle Brent Russell anchoring a defense that figures to be among the top units in the nation.

The Eagles are coming off a season that saw them make a rather remarkable run. Georgia Southern transitioned back to the old flexbone offense, and a team that was expected to be a middle-of-the-pack SoCon team surprised everyone by finishing third and squeezing in the FCS postseason for the first time since 2005. During the postseason, the Eagles were able to do something that they haven't done since the 2002 campaign, which was advance all the way to the semifinal round of the FCS playoffs before eventually being knocked off by national runner-up Delaware, 27-10, in Newark.

Appalachian State, which lost plenty of talent on both sides of the ball from last season's 10-3 team, still returns enough talent to have a great shot of capturing their seventh straight league crown. The Mountaineers will have two of the most talented offensive weapons in the SoCon returning for the 2011 campaign—quarterback DeAndre Presley and wide receiver Brian Quick.

Both Presley and Quick should enter the season as Walter Payton Award candidates. Presley became just the fourth player in FCS history to post 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season last fall. Quick, meanwhile, is on pace to become ASU's all-time leading wide receiver.

On the defensive side of the ball, it's hard to imagine the Mountaineers not feeling the sting of losing arguably its three best defensive players from a year ago—bookend Jabari Fletcher, linebacker D.J. Smith (525-career tackles) and safety Mark LeGree (22-career INTs). One of the real stars of the ASU defense this year might be John Rizor, who is an ultra-athletic defensive end-outside linebacker hybrid. A player like Rizor could excel in ASU's new 3-4 defensive scheme.

If anyone is going to challenge Appalachian State and Georgia Southern for elite status atop the league standings it might be the Chattanooga Mocs. While UTC did not defeat the Mountaineers last season, the Mocs went a long way toward loosening the grip that ASU has after dropping a 42-41 heartbreaker in the season opener in front of a capacity crowd at Finley Stadium. It was a game that saw the Mocs hold a three-touchdown lead (35-14) late in the fourth quarter, only to see the character of Jerry Moore's club outlast the talented but inexperienced squad fielded by Mocs head coach Russ Huesman.

The Mocs haven't qualified for the FCS postseason since 1984. But this UTC team might be more talented than any of those great mid-1980s teams coached by Buddy Nix, who is now the general manager of the Buffalo Bills. The Mocs didn't really see a significant downfall with their program until after the departure of Tommy West left to take over at Clemson for Ken Hatfield in 1993 prior to the Peach Bowl game with Kentucky. With 15 starters back, the Mocs should be solid on both sides of the ball. Walter Payton Award candidates B.J. Coleman and Joel Bradford return at quarterback and wide receiver, respectively.

The defense, which placed just sixth in the league in total defense last fall at 370.0 ypg. The Mocs had some impressive wins last fall, including mid-season wins over Georgia Southern (35-27) and at Furman (36-28), snapping a 15-game losing streak to the Paladins.

If Wofford hasn't proven its worthiness on the SoCon gridiron since joining as an official member in 1997, the Terriers probably never will. Wofford has been a consistent contender in the league title race in every season since 2002. The Terriers brushed off their third Southern Conference football crown last season, sharing the title with Appalachian State. Despite a 44-14 loss in Boone, the Terriers were able to share the league title as a result of Georgia Southern's 21-14 overtime loss in early November.

For the third time in four appearances, the Terriers managed to win a game once invited to the FCS postseason. The Terriers went on the road and knocked off Ohio Valley Conference champion Jacksonville State (17-14) in the second round before eventually getting knocked out of the playoffs in the quarterfinals, 23-20, by league rival Georgia Southern.

It was a big season for running back Eric Breitenstein, who rushed for 1,639 yards and 22 TDs, setting a new single-season school rushing mark. Breitenstein was part of a Wofford offense that once again paced the nation in rushing offense, averaging 297.0 ypg.

While Breitenstein is certainly a Walter Payton Award candidate on the offensive side of the ball, it's the Wofford defense that has most people talking this off-season. The Terriers will once again have one of the league's top defensive lines, anchored by senior defensive end Ameet Pall. Wofford fielded the league's top overall defense last fall, surrendering only 285.9 ypg.

Look for Bruce Fowler to have an immediate impact at Furman this fall, as the Paladins return 16 starters from a team that finished 5-6 last fall. Fowler, a defensive specialist, will have possibly the nation's best linebacker, Kadarron Anderson, anchoring the defense. The Paladins also have arguably the best cover corner in the SoCon heading into the 2011 campaign.

On offense, the buzz surrounding the program last season was at the quarterback position, where many expected Chris Forcier to be the full-time starter. After splitting time with Cody Worley for the first couple of games, Forcier suffered a season-ending injury. This past spring, Forcier was beat out for the starting quarterback responsibilities by junior Dakota Derrick.

Elon hopes that Jason Swepson can carry on the success that was established under head coach Pete Lembo's five seasons at the helm. Swepson will have to replace the league's all-time leading passer under center in Scott Riddle. However, the Phoenix will benefit from having Maryland-transfer Tyler Smith at quarterback, who'll have wide receiver Aaron Mellette to throw to, possibly the league's top wideout.

The Elon defense has some good experience returning for the 2011 season, including all-league linebacker Joshua Williams. A secondary that was young last fall, loses only one starter and returns safety Blake Thompson, one of the top young defensive players in the SoCon in 2010.

It has been a disappointing couple of seasons for Samford Pat Sullivan, and the fifth-year head coach had to make some tough decisions during the off-season. He fired offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Steve Brickey this past winter, but he hired Rhett Lashlee in his place. Lashlee has playing and coaching experience in the SEC, garnering his collegiate experience at Arkansas while assisting on Auburn's offensive staff under Gus Mazahn just last season.

The Bulldogs will need senior quarterback Dustin Taliaferro to shoulder much of the load this fall, especially as a result of the loss of Chris Evans, who became only a handful of running backs to rush for 1,000 or more yards in all four seasons. The Samford defense has some talent, with the return of bookend Alex Davis and linebacker Darion Sutton.

Another coach that might find himself on the hot seat this fall is the Citadel's Kevin Higgins. Since taking the Bulldogs to a 7-4 record and a third-place league finish back in 2007, things have gradually gotten worse for Higgins' Bulldogs, culminating with a 2-9 overall mark last season, 1-7 in league play. The Bulldogs transitioned back to the triple-option offense last fall, which brought them a Southern Conference title back in 1993 under the direction of Charlie Taafe.

While a SoCon title might not be in the immediate offering for Higgins and the Bulldogs, improvement should be. Returning under center will be sophomore Matt Thompson, and he will have one of the top running backs to hand the ball to in senior Terrell Dallas. The defense loses some significant pieces, especially defensive end Eric Clanton and cornerback Cortez Allen. But the do return Tolu Akindele at linebacker to anchor the unit this fall.

While Higgins and Sullivan find themselves on that proverbial hot seat, the heat might be the warmest under Dennis Wagner, who has just a 7-27 overall record since becoming the Catamounts head coach in 2008. The Catamounts are a worriesome 3-36 against Southern Conference competition since 2005.

Wagner and the Catamount offensive staff will be implementing the pistol offense this fall. Leading that pistol offense this fall will be one of three quarterbacks, as last year's starter Zac Brindise will battle incoming true freshmen Petey Boone and Jawan Simmons for the starting job. Both Boone and Simmons come from programs that utilized the pistol offense.

The defense, which was the worst in the SoCon last season, surrendering 443.7 ypg, does return some talent, led by Torez Jones who picked off a league leading six passes last season as a Catamount safety.

The 2011 season should be one that sees five solid teams atop the Southern Conference, with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State likely to challenge for the league's title trophy and automatic bid to the postseason, while Wofford and Chattanooga should both vy for a playoff spot. Furman is the one outsider could play spoiler for one of the top four, but if things go well early for the Paladins, Furman could be this year's Georgia Southern.

Storylines

D-Line Depth: A couple of years ago, the league had two of the best wide receivers to play in the league starring for their respective teams at the same time, with Andre Roberts finishing out his career as wideout for The Citadel Bulldogs, while Terrell Hudgins, who would go on to become the sub-classification’s all-time leader in receiving. This season, the position everyone around the league should be keeping an eye on is the defensive line. Georgia Southern’s nose tackle Brent Russell and Wofford defensive end Ameet Pall are likely two of the greatest to ever star at the respective positions in league history.

Both Russell and Pall will enter the 2011 season as Buck Buchanan Award candidates. Russell and Pall combined for an astounding 41 tackles for a loss and 20.5 sacks last fall. Russell will be joined at defensive tackle by Roderick Tinsley, as the two help form the league’s top defensive tackle tandems.

Another player to watch along the defensive line this fall is Lanston Tanyi at Appalachian State. The talented bookend was forced to redshirt the 2010 campaign as a result of having shoulder surgery. Two years ago, Tanyi was impressive along the ASU defensive line, garnering All-SoCon accolades with 11.0 TFLs and 7.5 sacks.

Looking To Its Roots For A Coach

One of the more interesting things to look at over the past few seasons in the SoCon has been the amount of head coaches that have some sort of attachment to the past tradition of the program. Chattanooga, Georgia Southern and now Furman have all three gone to its past to look for success. 

So far so good for both Chattanooga and Georgia Southerm. The Mocs went out and hired one of its own in December of 2008, bringing in former All-SoCon defensive back Russ Huesman, who starred in the Mocs’ secondary in the late 1970s, has changed the face of the Chattnooga football over the past couple of seasons. The Mocs have produced back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the 1990 and ‘91 seasons.

The Mocs garnered their first ranking since 1997 and will likely enter this year with their first preseason ranking since 1998. They have set school records for attendance in each of Huesman’s first two seasons in the Scenic City.

Georgia Southern exercised that same type judgment when bringing in Jeff Monken to bring back the flexbone offense, which brought the tradition-rich program an unprecedented six national titles. Monken and the Eagles nearly brought home a title in the very first season that they returned to the offensive scheme. The Eagles advanced all the way to the FCS semifinals before losing to Delaware. Monken previously served under Paul Johnson during the late 1990s and early 2000s, helping the Eagles to five SoCon titles and a couple of national titles.

The most recent school to look to its roots for success at head coach is Furman, now employed former Paladin defensive coordinator Bruce Fowler. Fowler served on the Furman staff for 17 years as both an offensive and defensive assistant under three different head coaches before following former Furman head coach Bobby Johnson to Vanderbilt in 2002. There he served as the Commodores’ defensive coordinator for eight years.

Like Huesman, Fowler was also a defensive back at his alma mater back in the late 1970s. He was a member of Furman’s first Southern Conference championship team as a defensive back in 1978. Fowler inherits a Furman team that returns 16 starters and will have a chance to keep the successful streak alive of schools looking to the past and their own for success on Saturday afternoons.

Black Saturday 2011

Mark your calendars for Oct. 29, 2011, when Georgia Southern visits Appalachian State. These two teams many believe will compete for the national title and a couple of teams that will likely enter the season ranked in the top-five. The Eagles will come to Boone in search of their first win over the Mountaineers at "The Rock" since a thrilling 38-35 on "Black Saturday" 2007, which snapped Appalachian State’s 31-game home-winning streak.

The rivalry between the Mountaineers and Eagles is one of the best in FCS. But last season, the rivalry had suffered a bit of a hiatus. The Eagles went through a transitional period, and just like in 2007, they ended a long winning streak by the Mountaineers, a 21-14 win overtime win over the top-ranked Black and Gold clad Mountaineers in Statesboro. With the win, the Eagles were able to bring an end to a 26-game winning streak for Appalachian State against Southern Conference competition.

GSU’s win last fall came on the heels of a 54-16 loss to the Mountaineers in Boone in ‘09, a game that saw the Apps roll up 702 yards of total offense in the win. The two teams have met a total of 26 times, with the Mountaineers holding a narrow 13-12-1 series edge.

The last time the Eagles won back-to-back games against the Mountaineers came during the same season. The Eagles claimed a pair of wins over Appalachian State in 2001, defeating them  27-18 in Boone during the regular season, before claiming a 38-24 win in Statesboro in the Division I-AA playoffs.

Though they lost both meetings to the Eagles in 2001, in the nine-point regular-season setback, Appalachian State became the first team to hold the FCS’ and SoCon’s all-time leading rusher Adrian Peterson (1998-01) under 100 yards rushing in a game. The feat by the Mountaineer defense ended Peterson’s NCAA record of most consecutive 100-yard rushing performances at 36 games.

When the two teams meet in late October, there is a great chance both will be ranked in the top five in the nation.

The last time the two SoCon juggernauts squared off as top-five foes was the 2000 season, when the Mountaineers entered the matchup as the No. 5 ranked team in the country, according to the official poll of record for FCS football, "The Sports Network", while GSU came into the contest reigning as the top team in the nation.

In fact, the last time the both teams were ranked entering the matchup was 2005, when the Mountaineers were ranked 19th and the Eagles were 16th. The last time the two met as top-10 foes, was the 2001 FCS quarterfinals, with Georgia Southern holding the nation’s No. 2 ranking, while the Apps were ranked eighth. Georgia Southern will likely enter the campaign favored to win the Southern Conference for the first time since 2004.

It was a remarkable 2010 season in so many ways, and Southern Conference football was back atop its perch as one of the top gridiron conferences on the FCS gridiron. Last year saw Appalachian State claim its sixth-straight Southern Conference title, but also see its 26-game league winning streak thwarted by Georgia Southern, 21-14, in an early November clash.

Fowler Looks To Solve Furman's Offensive Woes

When Bruce Fowler takes his sidelines for Furman's first game on Sept. 3, his biggest concern might not be a defense that has struggled in recent seasons, but rather an offense that suffered a steady decline last fall.

Furman's offensive numbers were its worst since 1998, as the Paladins averaged just 321.5 YPG to rank seventh in the SoCon and 85th nationally. The Furman offense will now look to rediscover its offensive identity, which was once as pronounced as any school in the FCS.

In the 1980s, Furman would begin to draw the notice and respect of its opponents as a result of the discipline and execution of some of its offenses, and were able to manufacture a physical ground game seemingly every season. There were admittidely some dead periods on the offensive side of the ball, with the 1994, '97 and '98 campaigns coming to mind.

Furman, which finished the 1994 season with just a 3-8 mark, still fielded an offense that averaged 353.0 ypg. The 1997 team, which actually posted a solid season by finishing 7-4, produced a meager 302.0 ypg, but the reason the Paladins were able to garner seven wins that season is due to the fact that the Paladins ranked second in the league in total defense that season.

The three seasons that are mentioned above are seasons in which Furman has experienced some of their greatest offensive struggles in school history, and each of those campaigns, there is one common thread. The common thread being a new starter under center, and the 1997 and 2010 seasons have one major shared characteristic, as both incumbent starters were lost in the second game of the season.

The Paladins, who were picked to win the league title by the league's media, had a new starter under center in Chris Jonas. After opening the '97 season with an impressive 29-10 on a Thursday night at Samford, the Paladins would suffer an injury that complexion of Furman's championship aspirations.

Jonas had been impressive in the opening-season victory over the Bulldogs, passing for 153 yards and a pair of TDs in leading a Paladin offense that rolled up 353 yards in the win. Early in the first quarter of Furman's second game of the season at South Carolina State. Jonas went down with a season-ending knee injury, and Furman would have to finish the season with musical quarterbacks.

The Paladins employed the services of Brent Rickman and a young Justin Hill the remainder of the '97 season. Rickman was inconsistent and his hesitancy in the pocket led to nine INTs to only seven scoring tosses. Between the two redshirt freshmen, the Paladins finished the 1997 season with 11 TD passes and 12 INTs.

This past season, Furman was supposed to be led by UCLA transfer Chris Forcier, who was supposed to have a better grasp of the Furman offense after transferring in post spring in 2009. But when Forcier never gained an upper hand, he and senior Cody Worley would split the quarterback duties.

Former head coach Bobby Lamb, who wasn't a big proponent of the two QB system, decided to use both Forcier and Worley against No. 25 Colgate in the season opener. What transpired was a confident team that posted a 45-15 win over the Raiders.

Things were certainly great in the opener, with Furman posting 377 yards on the ground, which was its highest rushing total in a single a game dating back to a late-September win over Samford in 2005 when Furman rolled up 392 rushing yards in a win.

However, Furman's 38-19 loss at South Carolina saw Forcier sustain a shoulder fracture on his non-throwing arm in the second quarter, ending his second season in Greenville disappointed. Forcier ended the season with Furman's top rushing performance of the 2010 season, going for 130 yards, including an 85-yard scoring scamper (sixth-longest in school history) in that season opening win.

The Paladins would see their offensive woes first emerge a week later in a 31-14 league opening win over The Citadel. Some of that obviously would get overlooked because of the win, but the offensive woes would be on display for all to see in Furman's 38-17 loss at Wofford a week later. Furman finished the game with 536 yards of total offense in the season-opening win over Colgate, which would be a season best.

In fact, Furman would only reach the 400-yard mark only one other team in 2010, as the Paladins rolled up 442 yards in a 56-14 win over 1-10 Howard. It's not a given that the Furman offense would have been markedly better with Forcier in the lineup, but it's pretty simple logic to assume the unit would have been more versatile. Furman topped the 300-yard mark of total offense only three times in its final nine times of the regular season.

Now, new head coach Bruce Fowler will be handing the ball to either Dakota Derrick (20-of-41 passing, 196 yds., 2 TDs, 1 INT), Chris Forcier or Travis Eman. Derrick is a big, lanky quarterback from Conway, S.C., and started twice last season, leading the Paladins to a 31-17 win over Western Carolina.

Derrick passed for 122 yards and a couple of scores, while rushing for 71 yards in helping the Paladins to what would be their final game of the season. He might be lanky, but has deceptive speed and is comfortable running the option.

Eman is quite possibly Furman's most highly touted freshman quarterback recruit since Jordan Sorrells. Eman was rated as the top-ranked quarterback in the FCS, according to Scout.com. Eman is easily Furman's top ranked recruit, and the Buffalo, N.Y. product will be perfect for running the option, as he has been clocked at 4.51 in the 40-yard dash.

He will give Derrick and Forcier a run for the starting quarterback duties in fall camp. One thing is for sure, Furman will have no shortage of running ability and speed at QB this fall.

The issues weren't limited to who was under center, as the Paladins struggled to run the ball last season. Not only were the running backs used less often, but the Paladins' leading rusher, Jerry Williams, finished with 389 total rushing yards. It was the lowest single-season total for a Paladin leading rusher since Hicky Horton rushed for 381 yards in 1958. Furman also hasn't had a running back reach the 1,000-yard plateau since 2003, when Hindley Brigham rushed for 1,042 yards.

Maybe the most glaring stat was the time-of-possession numbers. Furman averaged just 26:41 possession time for the season, proving the Paladin offense was one of the most inefficient in the history of the program. The Paladin running game was severely affected by its inability to get effective blocking at the point of attack.

Fowler certainly has his work cut out for him this fall if he wants to get Furman back to the level of competing for Southern Conference titles. Things must improve on offense for that to happen, and with a young offensive line, it could be tough treading once again this fall. Only time will tell.

These are just some fun notes and facts heading into the 2011 campaign. Please stay tuned during the coming weeks for in-depth team previews for all nine SoCon member institutions. On paper, the 2011 season has the potential to be one of the most competitive seasons in the history of the league. This season should be fun and memorable. Stay tuned.