NBA: Are the Utah Jazz a Better Team Without Al Jefferson?

There has been a lot of speculation and rumors regarding the Utah Jazz and trading Al Jefferson. With the current lockout making any such trade impossible it is currently a moot point. When the lockout is lifted it will be something the Jazz will once again explore.

As of now I will look at whether or not the Jazz make a trade involving Jefferson are they a better team without him? At first glance Jefferson may seem like a great player for the Jazz. He is one of the few players in the league with a legitimate shot to average over 20 PPG and 10 RPG. This type of contribution is rare in the league and when teams acquire players with this kind of ability they tend to build around them. Well it may be surprising to see statistically the Jazz are a better team with Jefferson on the bench.

First thing explored with be the statistical side of things. Last season Jefferson averaged 18.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 1.9 BLKPG. These are very solid stats at first glance. Jefferson is an excellent offensive player there is not disputing that, however it is widely known he is a terrible defender. In fact his defensive deficiencies not only wipe out his offensive contributions, but leave the Jazz in a hole.

According to 82games.com the Jazz averaged 110 points per 100 possessions with Jefferson ON the court. When Jefferson was OFF the court the Jazz averaged 106.6 points per 100 possessions. This clearly shows the Jazz are better offensively with Jefferson on the court by 3.4 points.

Defensively is another story. The Jazz gave up 113.3 points with Jefferson ON the court. With Jefferson OFF the court the Jazz only gave up 106 points per 100 possessions. This is an astounding 7.2 point differential! When combing the two differentials Jefferson put the Jazz 3.9 points down every 100 possessions.

Even just looking at the times he was on the court the 110 PPG still does not make up for his defensive problems and giving up 113.3 PPG. Granted this is not all Jefferson's fault as the Jazz as a team were below average defensively. Jefferson, however, is at a whole different level defensively. He has never played defense. If you searched for the worst players defensively you would not find many articles that did not mention Jefferson. In fact he has been awarded worst defensive player of the year by several writers.

I know you can make an argument that numbers don't always mean everything or give me statistics showing how efficient he was, but the fact of the matter is with Jefferson on the court the Jazz gave up more points than they scored, this does not translate to wins (remember at the end of the night the only stat that really matters is the number on the scoreboard).

The biggest problem I have with Jefferson is I have yet to see him show he can win. Since Jefferson became a regular starter in the league in the 2006-2007 season he has yet to play for a team with a winning record. Boston in '06-'07 went 24-59 (second-worst record in the league). His first season with Minnesota in '07-'08 they went 22-60 (third-worst record in the league). In '08-'09, which was the year he blew out his knee the Timberwolves were 16-34 before the injury ended his season. In '09-'10 the TWolves were 15-67 (second-worst record in the league). Finally last season with the Jazz they finished 39-43, which is by far his best season, yet still did not make the playoffs.

You could make an excuse for each and every season. In '06-'07 Paul Pierce only played in 47 games, then he was stuck in Minnesota, and finally went through a season with the Jazz where they lost Sloan and Williams. Those excuses may very well be valid, but the fact is he has yet to show he can win. The Jazz roster last season had the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs, they did not.

Some players, despite being extremely talented, simply are not conducive to winning. Tracy McGrady first comes to mind. Great player, yet the only year his team made it past the first round was the year he was hurt, Vince Carter is another player who despite great individual numbers never led his team anywhere.

Then there are players who just find ways to win. Derrick Rose was the first player I thought of. I know he was MVP and had great individual numbers, but you cannot convince me they had the best roster in the league. They had key injuries to Noah and Boozer (surprising, huh?). Yet despite the injuries and not having the best talent Rose led them to the best regular season record. Some people just win.

Jefferson is an excellent fantasy player and not much more. He is a great individual statistic guy, but not much else. He will not lead a team team in the playoffs despite being played like a player who should. Because of this and the fact the Jazz have a couple of young and very talented bigs who may lead them into a contender.

There will be some growing pains with Favors and Kanter, and an injury to either one would probably guarantee being towards the bottom of the league in the wins category, but is that such a bad thing? Next year's draft is shaping up to be fantastic. The Jazz should get the Warriors pick assuming they don't get a top-seven pick and then add their lottery pick and the Jazz would have six lottery picks in the past three years.

Now lets say I am wrong and Jefferson does in fact make the Jazz better. The current roster stays healthy and the Jazz make the playoffs. What is realistically the best seed they could get? They aren't beating out the Mavericks, Lakers, Thunder or the Spurs barring serious injuries to key players. Then there is the Nuggets, Blazers, Hornets, Grizzlies, Rockets and Suns who could all have better records than the Jazz. Assuming there are not injuries the best the Jazz could hope for would be the fifth seed. They then lose in the first round and are reminded once again they are a good team, but not a contender.

Then just to make things even better they lose out on their first-round pick in next year's draft (remember how it's looking to be one of the best drafts in years). They lose out on their pick because of the acquisition of Jefferson. The Jazz did not get Jefferson for free. The T-Wolves have two lottery protected picks of the Jazz.

If the Jazz make the playoffs and the Warriors tank and get a top-seven pick the Jazz will not even have a selection in a draft that could have given them another great piece to the puzzle. And for what? Another first-round playoff exit? I, for one, am tired of mediocrity and would gladly endure a bad season if it means they're better in the long run.