British Open 2011 Tournament Betting Odds and Predictions

The British Open is how we commonly know what is recognized overseas as The Open Championship, or simply The Open. It is the oldest of the four major championships in professional golf and its 140^th edition starts this Thursday.

Even if Tiger Woods would be playing at his best and active, making predictions and setting betting odds for any golf tournament is not an easy task, much less at a tournament like the British Open.

The ever-present and unpredictable British weather, especially at a very tricky course like Royal St George's, presents odds makers the recipe for disaster.

When trying to see how players would fare this year, we could take a look at the last time the British Open was held at Royal St George's in 2003 for some pointers.

In 2003, the way to play Royal St. George's was to make your birdies on the front side, then hold on as best as you could at the back, where the wind, and the almost toast, wavy fairways and the firm greens battled back at you so no par could be reached.

The result was that unknown Ben Curtis claimed the Claret Jug. Ben had never finished in the top ten of a PGA Tour event and never played in a major championship. He had to thank that it was an Open, otherwise with his 396 ranking, he could have been watching it from home.

Now, according to course officials, Royal St George's was improved during the past year with the intentions of placing more emphasis on well thought-out and accurate shot-making. At least on paper, it looks like preparing home-field advantage to me.

British and European fans cannot feel better at the odds that one of their own would raise the Claret Jug this year. The play by European players has not been stronger than in recent memory.

Padraig Harrington, Martin Kaymer, Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell all have won majors in recent years, and Luke Donald and Lee Westwood have been at or near the head of the world rankings.

Odds definitely favor the Euros in this tournament. But then again, a tournament at an unpredictable course could produce an unpredictable winner, like Louis Oosthuizen last year and Curtis in 2003.

The Americans, at least on the odds, are faring well right now. Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar and Nick Watney are in the top ten with the bookmakers. Let’s take a look at the top betting odds:

Rory McIlroy (Northern Ireland), 6/1 – He is an aggressive player in a conservative course. This can get him in trouble early on. Add to this the pressure of playing to win in England and the fact that this is not a course that you can run away with a victory, it presents Rory with a different kind of monster than Congressional.

He must show patience and the ability to play within a tight leaderboard if he wants to fare well here. If he does, then Tiger can retire or better come back stronger than ever, because there will be a new Sheriff in town.

Lee Westwood (UK), 10/1 – One of the home boys that has yet to claim his first major, some have started to question whether he will win one or not. But while all the attention has been focused lately on the Major winners, especially McIlroy, Westwood has continued his solid play.

He seems poised to claim this as his first major win, having finished in the top-three in five out of the last seven majors. He has a steady game, and if he can just handle the pressure of playing at home, he will take home the Claret Jug.

Luke Donald (UK), 12/1 – Maybe the most underrated No. 1 player ever, he understands that to win this tournament he must adhere to his strengths and not use “force.”

A player like Luke, known for soft drives and a superb iron game, is perfectly fitted for this course. His consistency could serve him well here, and he will definitely be in the mix at the end of the tournament.

Martin Kaymer (GER), 20/1 – He is playing the best golf of his life and is currently ranked third in the world. Although he struggled badly at the US Open, he bounced back by improving at the BMW and recently finishing fourth in France.

He is another player whose style of play, driving low and hitting greens in regulation, will have him contending on Sunday. Taking into consideration his seventh-place finish last year at St Andrews, I expect him to at least be in the top ten or maybe top five.

Graeme McDowell (NIR), 20/1 – McDowell has not been at his best lately and does not look like he could contend here even when the odds show like he could.

After a hot start at the beginning of the year with four straight top ten finishes, including two in third-place at the Volvo Match Play. He has missed the cut three times and not shown he is on any kind of roll coming here. 20/1 seems gracious here.

Sergio Garcia (ESP), 25/1 – I had to double check that I was looking at the right odds for Sergio, but I cannot see him challenging here. I would say that maybe the odds are because of his recent play, tied for seventh at the US Open and second at the BMW International Open last time out.

Maybe it's because he has finished in the Top ten six times at The Open, including his best second-place in 2007 to Harrington. I can give him a shot at a Top ten finish but do not see him as a winner this year.

Phil Mickelson (USA), 33/1 – Historically this has been Lefty’s worst major. He has really contended only once when he finished third to Todd Hamilton in 2004. No other top ten finishes for him.

Arguably, after Tiger Woods, maybe the best golfer recently, his style just does not fit this tournament. His risk taking does not bode well at an unforgiving course. His odds currently sit at 33/1 but could easily be double that.

Matt Kuchar (USA), 33/1 – The top American golfer has not played since the US Open, where he finished in fourteenth-place. Before that, he was sixth at the Byron Nelson and second at the Memorial.

In his last sixteen tournaments, he has finished in the top ten half the time. Seems like a contender here, but even with him playing this well, I don’t see him as a player to contend here.

Jason Day (AUS), 33/1 – Another underrated player who has played excellent by finishing second at both majors this year. At the US Open  he shot a 68 even in his final roundwhen not having his best game.

Here is one player who is very consistent and steady who can find that third time is really the charm at the majors this year. At his current odds, he looks like a steal.

Nick Watney (USA), 33/1 – Watney and not Kuchar is the American I expect to contend with the top Europeans in this Open. Fresh off his AT&T win where he showed he has what it takes to compete with the best, he seems due a great outing here.

Last year at St Andrews, he tied for seventh, and after a few disappointing finishes, he has been on a tear that has seen him finished in the top ten eleven times.

The Dark Horse - If you are looking for a good price, my dark horse and at great odds is Bubba Watson. Although best known for his long play, he has been playing very well lately and has improved his touch, which could very well be the ingredient that could take him to challenge at 80/1.

Former Champs - The odds for the past decade champs are for Padraig Harrington at 40/1, Ernie Els and Louis Oosthuizen at 66/1, Stewart Cink 100/1 and Todd Hamilton at 500/1. Of all this, Padraig is the one with the best chance to challenge for the trophy, which he won back-to-back in 2007-08.