Floyd Mayweather Jr. Versus Victor Ortiz: 5 Reasons Ortiz Can Win

As long as Floyd Mayweather Jr. is fighting anybody but Manny Pacquiao, there is going to be grumbling. When the two fighters recogized as the pound-for-pound best are sitting at the same weight class, for years, without meeting in the ring, boxing fans start to get bitter.

So when Mayweather signed to fight Victor Ortiz in September, the squawking followed in short order. I can sympathize. Like all boxing fans, I'm way past hungry to see Pacman and Mayweather finally settle this debate once and for all. 

I'm usually the first boxing nerd lining up to argue about who wins a potential matchup. But when it comes to Manny and Money, I started avoiding those conversations awhile ago. I just want to see it for real and know for real.

But let's give credit where it's due. If Mayweather was going to take a different fight, this time he has at least gone out and found the best possible alternative. In Ortiz he has chosen the most dangerous man in the division not named Manny Pacquiao.

(Well, maybe he could have finally taken a fight with Cotto...but anyway...)

I know it has become conventional wisdom among a lot of boxing fans that there is no way possible Floyd Mayweather Jr. can lose to anybody but Pacman (and vice-versa) but I'm here to tell you: At this particular point in both men's careers, Ortiz has the tools to take away Prettyboy Floyd's zero.

I've got five reasons why.     

Mayweather's out of the Ring Distractions

I'm going to say that this point is my weakest one, at least for talking about a guy like Money Mayweather. His life appears to have been a soap opera with many plot lines for as long as he's been fighting. None of it has ever prevented him from being 100% focused and ready in the ring.

He's one of the sport's only true superstars, and it's a roll he embraces fully. And it's never hurt his game. He returned after a nearly two year lay off and an embarrassing clown show in the WWE and proceeded to shut out all time great Juan Manuel Marquez.

But Floyd's more recent distractions have been a whole lot less fun than headlining with Big Show and hanging out with the Kardashian girls. And he's older, too: 34. He's almost legally old enough to be president. And like the old Bob Seger song says, a man comes to a point in his life when it starts to tire him out to always be running "against the wind."  

The Law of Averages

There is a reason that there are so few undefeated professional boxers. And beyond that, there is a reason why almost all those boxers who are undefeated receive a heavy amount of criticism for a weak quality of opposition.

No matter how good you are, if you do enough three minute rounds inside a 20 square foot ring with other elite level boxers, eventually something bad is going to happen to you.

Anybody who doesn't think Victor Ortiz could possibly hurt Floyd Mayweather better go re-watch the Mosley fight. For over 90% of that fight, Mosley was thoroughly outclassed and never in a position where he could hurt Mayweather.

But he did rock Mayweather early. Sugar Shane had him in deep water for the better part of a round. Mayweather proved he was tough and had heart, despite what his legion of haters would like to believe. He swam through the round and re-established his dominance the rest of the way.

When Mosley rocked Mayweather, there was a real sense that it was a last grasp at greatness by a crafty old vet. When it didn't play out, Mosley faded predictably. 

If Ortiz touches up Mayweather early, it's going to be nothing like that. It's going to be a hungry young wolf getting his first taste of really prized blood. It's going to be the rising star Victor Ortiz realizing for absolute certain that he truly does belong at the highest level of the sport.

Say Mayweather survives one of those scary sort of rounds with Ortiz. He's not going to come out after the one minute break and find a 38 year old man, partially deflated because his big play didn't pan all the way out.

He's going to find Victor Ortiz drooling with the hunger of a fighter entering his defining moment. That's an entirely different fight to have to reassert control over.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is one of the very few people on the planet who just might be able to box 12 rounds with Victor Ortiz without getting hurt. But there's a decent chance Ortiz manages to hurt him at some point. And once that happens, the horses are out of the barn.  

Ortiz Is an Emotional Fighter with Momentum

This is the kind of 2011 that Victor Ortiz is having: In April he moved up to welterweight and won the WBC world title from Andre Berto, in a bout that was instantly hailed as a "Fight of the Year" candidate. Now in September he will look to close out the year by becoming the first man to ever beat Floyd Mayweather, in what will be one of the highest profile fights of the year, by virtue of the fact that it marks Money's return to the ring.

This could be the year that Victor Ortiz transforms from a nice contender that hardcore boxing fans are aware of to an established champion, recognizable to the casual fan and beyond. He's got a shooting star's worth of momentum.

A hungry young fighter in that situation is dangerous. In a sport as mentally challenging as boxing, believing strongly that destiny has climbed on your back is a huge advantage. 

Watch the way Ortiz came out for the opening bell against Berto. He threw his first punch within less than two seconds and he just kept throwing. It was among his busiest fights ever, demonstrating that the move up to welterweight might be ideal for him.

Mayweather Will Have Trouble Throwing Enough Punches to Discourage Ortiz

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is an extremely quick and accurate puncher, with more power than the casual fan often gives him credit for. But the one most legitimate criticism of him has been that he never throws flurries, relying almost entirely upon one and two punch combinations to pile up his scoring.

Most mortal fighters have to throw flurries, relying on the disruption to create openings. They might realize that the first, second or even third punch is going to get caught or slipped, but they are hoping to force a hole for the fourth and fifth punches to slip through.

Mayweather's footwork is so good that he often finds himself in attacking positions that most fighters would never get into. He has been able to pile up scoring, and even completely break opponents down during fights, simply by throwing one or two extremely accurate punches at a time.

This strategy could be dangerous for Mayweather against a fighter like Ortiz, who is willing to take shots and keep coming forward aggressively. Ortiz will still have to land his own punches, of course, which is always easier said than done against Pretty Boy Floyd. But the longer Mayweather allows him to hang around, the more opportunities he gets to roll those dice.

To prepare for this slideshow I watched several rounds of Mayweather's old fight with Arturo Gatti. Mayweather was a much busier fighter in that bout than he has been in any recent fight. The combination of his slickness with an aggressive counter-attack allowed him to completely blow the hard charging Gatti away, finishing him in six.

That Floyd Mayweather Jr. would handle Ortiz with ease. But that was six years ago, when Mayweather was 28.

Ortiz Is a Southpaw

When you are a boxer like Floyd Mayweather Jr., who relies upon slick, precise footwork, facing an opponent who fights from the left side can be extremely unsettling. Suddenly everything you do so smoothly, so automatically, is all wrong.

The exact same patterns of movement that have allowed you to make so many other boxers look like stumbling clods can lead directly to a mouthful of glove against a southpaw.

I don't want to over hype this point, because Mayweather and his team are clearly capable of preparing him for a southpaw. But it is a factor to consider. Even if it doesn't cause Mayweather major defensive problems, it could easily make it more difficult for him to create the same angles he's used to seeing for his sniper-punching.

The fact that Manny Pacquiao is a southpaw has been noted often as one of the reasons Mayweather is "afraid" to fight him. The fact that he has selected the southpaw Ortiz for this fight is being viewed with some degree optimism. It seems like a good choice if Mayweather really is planning to fight Pacman next.

But Really? Mayweather Probably Wins

The Mayweather-Pacquiao impasse has created a stagnant atmosphere at the top of the sport. A big upset of Mayweather by an exciting up and coming champion would be a welcome gust of fresh air.

Don't hold your breath. Mayweather is not going to have any trouble at all hitting Ortiz, who, it should be noted, was dropped twice during his fight with Berto. There's a long list of top level professional boxers who have found hitting Mayweather to be nearly impossible.

It's true that 34 can be a little long in the tooth for a boxer, but it's not like Mayweather is an old 34. If some fighters that age resemble high mileage commuter cars, Mayweather is very much the classic sports car that's kept in a garage all winter.

If Mayweather thinks he's going to phone it in against Ortiz, we might have a monumental upset in the making. But Mayweather, whatever other personality problems he might have, has never seemed to approach his profession with that attitude.