I have spent hours poring through information. In fact, I spent so much time working on that stuff that today is going to be a little lighter than usual in the number of games I'm picking, and tomorrow will be heavier than normal.
As everyone knows, Thursday night hasn't been kind to me, so I'm going to defer to Jordan on that game this week as he's been red hot, going 7-2 against the spread last week and bringing his documented season total to 59-20.
I do have an opinion on the game, and I talk about it on the video today, but I think Jordan brings up some valid points and the guy is on one heck of a roll.
I'm getting a steady stream of entries into the free picking contest, and it looks like it will be like everything else around here—just bigger every week as we continue to grow. There's still time to sign up and enter, and it's really easy and a lot of fun.
Let's get to some more of the games that I'm looking at.
Arkansas State +23 1/2 at Alabama (Saturday, Nov. 1, 3 EST): 4 out of 10
I think we have a serious value play that at least is worth taking a shot at. While I don't have the most confidence I have ever had taking the points against the Tide this year like I did with Ole Miss and Kentucky, I do think the oddsmakers may have just been a bit too generous in this one.
Statistically this looks like one of those where one team has a much better offense and one team has a better defense. The key matchup here is going to come down to Arkansas State's 12th-ranked rushing offense being able to or not being able to run on the Tide's second-ranked rushing defense.
The Red Wolves will try to set up the run with the passing game of Corey Leonard, who had 11 TDs against just three INTs this season.
Arkansas State seems to have its way covering the spread against SEC teams, coming in at 10-4 against the number in their last 14 against the SEC.
We all know of the Tide's struggles against the number, covering just three of the last 10 times they have played a team with a winning record, 6-20-2 in their last 28 in Tuscaloosa, and a miserable 2-6 against the spread in their last eight following an against the spread win.
We have all seen the Tide inexplicably struggle against inferior competition, and while ASU is inferior on many levels, starting with depth, they are close enough to at least cover and may give the home folk a good scare.
Go here for more of Mitch's Week 10 picks against the spread.