Apocalypse Rod: Michigan's Colonel Kurtz Mission

I began this season thinking Michigan would have a very rough time of it but eventually start coming around. My theory was that the defense, which was expected to be very good, would carry the offense, which wasn't, and that by the end of the season Michigan would get back to being Michigan again.

Somewhere on my homepage blog, following the Utah game, I noted that I wouldn't be surprised if a rapidly improving Michigan was 5-6 going into the Ohio State game and yet good enough to pull the upset. That, after all, is the kind of thing Michigan does: Win when their backs are absolutely against the wall.

It's what makes them Michigan.

I don't believe any of it anymore.

I think what is happening right now IS the new Michigan. While they'll obviously not be this bad for long, there's mounting evidence that the Wolverines have inked a contract with mediocrity.

Back on May 12, I was predicting a serious adjustment period by Michigan standards, but hardly extreme for the rest of the college football world. Still, I was going further than most by picking them to go 6-6 and finish sixth in the conference.

"6. MICHIGAN (6-6 and 4-4)

"In addition to conference defeats against Mich St, OH ST, Penn St and Wisc, they may also get beat by Toledo and Utah—two potential champs in their respective conferences—or maybe Notre Dame (hey, if App St could do it...). Perhaps the weakest Michigan team in 20 years plays a deceptively tough schedule..."

On July 28, I was considering the possibility of a modest losing season, but still granting that Michigan would eventually get back to being Michigan again...

"My worldview does not include a Michigan team that does not win at least 50 percent of its games, but that is a possible outcome this season. Not probable—I think nine wins is as likely as five—but a losing season is weirdly thinkable..."

But all this was because I was being realistic about the challenges facing the new coaching regime. I argued a couple of weeks ago, following the Toledo game, that the current struggles didn't necessarily reflect poorly on Rich Rodriguez, noting that he is...

"...a proven coaching talent, and once he’s had time to build his kind of system the results should happen on the field. A new winning culture may finally grow..."

That last part is the conventional wisdom on this situation, something I usually try very hard to avoid buying into.

I'm now ready to take it all back.

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