UFC on Versus 4: Betting Odds and Picks for the Whole Card

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

I’ve always wanted to start an article like that. Just another line item to cross off the bucket list.

The betting odds are out for UFC on Versus 4—or, as it is officially known, UFC Live: Marquardt vs. Story. It’s all going down starting at 6 p.m. Eastern this Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

And since Sunday is almost universally recognized as a day of wagering, let us take a look at the complete list of odds and see if we can’t single out a few areas where you might want to lay down a jellybean or two.*

Main card odds courtesy of BetUS and SportsInteraction. Undercard odds come from MMAValor.

*If you know what’s good for you, you’ll ignore every single one of these predictions. I’m like William H. Macy at the sportsbook.

12. Michael Johnson vs. Edward Faaloto

Michael Johnson -260
Edward Faaloloto +180

Johnson is making his UFC debut proper against WEC import Faaloloto.

Faaloto is new not only to the UFC but to fighting in general. Johnson may look for (and get) a big knockout here, but at the minimum he should be able to handle Faaloloto with his wrestling.

Pick: Johnson

11. Ricardo Lamas vs. Matt Grice

Ricardo Lamas -120
Matt Grice -120

Grice returns for a second tour with the UFC and a first try at featherweight after going 1-3 his first time around as a lightweight. Lamas, another WEC import, is entering the Octagon for the first time. This one should be a grapplefest, though Grice may have an edge on the feet.

Pick: Grice

10. Charles Oliveria vs. Nik Lentz

Oliveira -185
Lentz +145

Oliveira is only 21, but he already has a 14-1 MMA record, including a 2-1 mark in the UFC. His only loss to date came against lightweight top contender Jim Miller.

The young man is also already a formidable jiu-jitsu ace (as you can probably tell from the photo above). He should be able to score on Lentz using his speed and Muay Thai, and eventually should lock up a submission.

Pick: Oliveira

9. T.J. Grant vs. Charlie Brenneman

Grant: -130
Brenneman: EV

UPDATE: Grant has taken ill, and this fight has been canceled for Sunday. But had I picked someone, it would have been Grant.

8. Daniel Roberts vs. Rich Attonito

Roberts:  -120
Attonito:  -120


The odds say it all. Stay away! Both are BJJ purple belts and like to go for the choke. Still, part of me feels the more experienced Roberts is the pick here.

Prediction: Roberts

7. Joe Lauzon vs. Curt Warburton

Lauzon: -240
Warburton: +180

Warburton is no pushover, but a motivated Lauzon should be able to maul the English striker and get a win with an armbar or choke.

Pick: Lauzon

6. Joe Stevenson vs. Javier Vazquez

Stevenson: -140
Vazquez: +110

Though my head says to play an upset for Vazquez, my heart and gut both lean toward Joe Daddy. Looks like my brain is outvoted. Again.

Stevenson is motivated not only by the fact that he has to win to stay in the UFC, but also because of Vazquez's prefight trash talk, which Joe Daddy believes crossed the line.

In the end Stevenson should overpower Vazquez and grind him out in his featherweight debut.

Pick: Stevenson

5. Tyson Griffin vs. Manny Gamburyan

Griffin: -200
Gamburyan: +160

Red alert! Sound the alarms! Here comes your first underdog special. Take a bite, lock it up, bury it in the yard.

Because Manny Gamburyan is winning this fight.

Griffin loves to bang, Gamburyan loves to grind. Both are wily vets, but I see Gamburyan outfoxing Griffin in this one and wearing him out on the ground.

Pick: Gamburyan

4. Christian Morecraft vs. Matt Mitrione

Bet US:
Morecraft:  +210
Mitrione: -280

SportsInteraction:
Morecraft: +225
Mitrione: -345

The evening's first main-card bout may also be its biggest lock.

Morecraft is skilled, especially groundwise, but Mitrione is stronger and more well-rounded, especially on the feet. I see a KO or TKO coming Morecraft's way, and probably no later than the second round.

Pick: Mitrione

3. Matt Brown vs. John Howard

BetUS:
Brown: +210
Howard: -280

SportsInteraction:
Brown: +215
Howard: -312

Lots of people are predicting a bloodbath here, and while I think it might begin as a slugfest, Howard's clear advantage on the game is just too clear for "Doomsday" to ignore. Sooner or later, Howard will get Brown to the ground, and that will be the difference. A chokeout is not an unrealistic possibility.

Pick: Howard

2. Pat Barry vs. Cheick Kongo

BetUS
Barry: +160
Kongo: -200

SportsInteraction
Barry: +175
Kongo: -250

A lot of people seem to be in the same boat here: they like Barry, want to see him do well. Some think his kickboxing won't be enough against the ripped veteran in Kongo, some think it will. If you're in the latter camp, this obviously makes a very enticing upset pick. I am not in that camp.

Pick: Kongo

1. Rick Story vs. Nate Marquardt

BetUS:
Story: -130
Marquardt:  +100

SportsInteraction:
Story: +110
Marquardt: -152

Well, this is all over the map.

But I still say sound the upset alarms. I can't believe Marquardt is the 'dog anywhere. The cut to welterweight will be challenging for Marquardt and is the real x-factor here. But I'm willing to bet that he'll get through it and still have a decided strength advantage over Story.

Add in "The Great's" advantages in striking, submissions and experience, and I'd say this is the best upset-that-isn't-really-an-upset play that I've seen in recent memory.

Enjoy the fights, everyone, and good luck!

Pick: Marquardt