Greg Oden: How Good Can He Be as a Redshirt Rookie?

There is no doubt in my mind, that—barring injury—Greg Oden will be good. Not good-among-today's-NBA-centers good, but all-time good. All-Star good. Hall-of-Fame good.

OK, let's just step up the adjectives a notch, here—I think he will be great.

We haven't seen Oden on a national stage since his Ohio State days. After sitting out all of last year with an injury, he is ready to go for his NBA rookie season as a Portland Trail Blazer.

Aside from possibly being 35, Oden has an advantage over most rookies—an extra year to learn the game, build his body, and improve the skills he will need to be successful in the NBA. 

In order to see the potential for Greg Oden, I will be looking at some of the NBA’s great big men who were top draft picks in the past two decades and comparing their games. I have listed each player's rookie stat line, including games played (G), minutes per game (MPG), points per game (PPG), field goal percentage (FG%), rebounds per game (RPG), blocks per game (BPG), turnovers per game (TPG), and fouls per game (FPG).

Hakeem Olajuwon, First Pick, 1984

1984-85: 82 G, 25.5 MPG, 20.6 PPG, .538 FG%, 11.9 RPG, 2.7 BPG, 2.9 TPG, 4.2 FPG

In 1983, the Rockets drafted Ralph Sampson to fill the center spot, so when the '84 draft came along, getting Olajuwon was a dream. "The Dream" was quicker and possessed more offensive skills than Oden. 

I expect Oden to log more minutes as a rookie—unless he consistently gets in foul trouble, which is very possible. Although their games are different, Oden could post similar numbers.

Patrick Ewing, First Pick, 1985

1985-86: 50 G, 25.4 MPG, 20.0 PPG, .474 FG%, 9.0 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 3.4 TPG, 2.8 FPG

Physically, Oden reminds me most of Ewing—broad shoulders, strong, and not a great athlete, but an intimidating one. Ewing was injured for part of his rookie year but still managed to get the Rookie of the Year award, averaging only 25.4 minutes per game. 

Oden will accumulate more fouls and has the same injury risk, but he could outrebound Ewing and shoot a better percentage than Ewing did in his first year.

David Robinson, First Pick, 1987

1989-90: 82 G, 36.6 MPG, 24.3 PPG, .531 FG%, 12.0 RPG, 23.9 BPG, 3.1 TPG, 3.2 FPG

The Admiral shares one interesting commonality with Oden—both did not play the year they were drafted. Robinson had to serve in the Navy before serving in the Spurs' frontcourt. 

That’s not the only commonality they share. Both players have great physiques and can bang. Robinson's offensive game was further along, but he was much older than Oden as a rookie and he was more athletic. This would be amazing production for Oden's rookie season.

Dikembe Mutombo, Fourth Pick, 1991

1991-92: 71 G, 38.3 MPG, 16.6 PPG, .493 FG%, 12.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG, 3.5 TPG, 3.8 FPG

Mt. Mutombo has never been considered a great offensive player, but 38.3 minutes per game allowed him to average an impressive 16.6 points per game during his rookie season. I consider this the baseline for Oden's rookie scoring potential. 

Oden isn't the shot-blocker Mutombo was, but many confident penetrators will challenge Oden as a rookie, which will give him a chance to accumulate two to three blocks per game. 

Shaquille O'Neal, First Pick, 1992

1992-92: 81 G, 37.9 MPG, 23.4 PPG, .562 FG%, 13.9 RPG, 3.5 BPG, 3.8 TPG, 4.0 FPG

Oden isn't nearly as explosive as Shaq was in his rookie season, and the only similarity I would see them sharing is high foul numbers. Oden should shoot over 50 percent from the field, but 56 percent is amazing for a rookie who averages 23.4 points per game. 

I wouldn't expect Shaq numbers out of young Greg.

Alonzo Mourning, Second Pick, 1992

1992-93: 78 G, 33.9 MPG, 21.0 PPG, .511 FG%, 10.3 RPG, 3.5 BPG, 3.0 TPG, 3.7 FPG

'Zo was overshadowed by Shaq in his rookie season, but would have won Rookie of the Year honors in any other year. Mourning’s stats would be a very realistic projection for Oden. 

The difference between the two is that Mourning is a more natural shot blocker—despite being 6'9", he has a 7'6" wingspan. While still huge Oden's wingspan is a shorter 7'4", and he will really have to attack shots to block three-and-a-half per game, which would potentially put him in foul trouble.

Tim Duncan, First Pick, 1997

1997-98: 82 G, 39.1 MPG, 21.1 PPG, .549 FG%, 11.9 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 3.4 TPG, 3.1 FPG

There aren't many comparisons being drawn between Oden and Duncan because their games are so different. Duncan may be the most complete player to come out of college ever. He was able to play long minutes without getting in foul trouble, rebound, score, and block shots. Oden also doesn't have a David Robinson to deflect defensive pressure off of him.

Yao Ming, First Pick, 2002

2002-03: 82 G, 29.1 MPG, 13.5 PPG, .498 FG%, 8.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 2.1 TPG, 2.8 FPG

Yao had quite the learning curve to overcome when he entered the NBA. There was the language barrier and the new style of play he had to adjust to. 

Oden can speak English fluently, has been interacting with his teammates for a whole year, and has been mentored on the NBA game for a while. I would expect Oden to surpass every statistical category of Yao's rookie year, including higher foul and turnover numbers, too.

Dwight Howard, First Pick, 2004

2004-05: 82 G, 32.6 MPG, 12.0 PPG, .520 FG%, 10.0 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 2.0 TPG, 2.8 FPG

The new McDonald's poster boy, Dwight Howard was still raw offensively when he entered the NBA out of high school. Howard is a much more explosive jumper than Oden, but Oden's skills are more evolved, and he tracks the ball better to block shots. They might have similar minutes, but Oden will outplay Howard in the same amount of time. 

In conclusion, I would expect Greg Oden's rookie season to look like a hybrid of Patrick Ewing's and Alonzo Mourning's. He will block shots, hit the boards, shoot a good percentage, and surprise the NBA and critics with his scoring ability. 

Let's see how he does first against the Lakers.