The BCS rankings are out, and there are some obvious winners and losers. Florida got dinged (No. 12) by the non-humans, while USC got a lot of love from the humans as well, but not from the non-humans (No. 10).
But there's an ominous scenario lurking in the BCS poll—the possibility of a conference champion getting leapfrogged by its second-place team and going on to the title game.
Oh no. Not again.
USC is currently No. 5. If USC wins out, and Oregon State wins out, then Oregon State will be the Pac-10 champion by virtue of tiebreaker. Both teams will have had one conference loss, but Oregon State lost to Stanford and beat USC. USC's only conference loss was to Oregon State. The Beavs move on due to head-to-head competition.
Now, what if Alabama loses a game, or Penn State loses a game? They will drop, with Texas at No. 1, Oklahoma at No. 2, and USC at No. 3.
You getting the picture yet?
Texas and Oklahoma have already played, and only one can represent their division in the conference championship. Throw in Oklahoma State as a possible roadblock for Texas, and USC and Oklahoma could both easily end up in the top two spots, with Oklahoma State possibly taking one of their places if they beat Texas this Saturday.
If any of those three Big 12 South teams lose in the Big 12 conference championship, USC will get shoved into the top two spots, assuming they win out. Oklahoma could also take the other top spot, without ever playing in the conference championship.
Remember, Texas has to lose twice for the Sooners to represent the South (assuming the Sooners win out). If a Mizzou or Kansas, both not ranked in the top 10, were to beat the South champ, say Texas or Oklahoma State, then Oklahoma gets the benefit, because at this point, it's unlikely that the North champ will jump to the top two spots.
It is here where the problem begins. USC at No.2 would not be the Pac-10 champ unless Oregon State drops one later on. What if the Beavs don't? They are currently not ranked in the top 25.
USC, ranked in one of the top two spots, would be sent to the BCS title game while Oregon State would go to the Rose Bowl.
Uh-oh.
Remember 2001? Nebraska got smoked by Colorado 62-36 in the final week of regular season play and didn't even play in the Big 12 conference championship, yet were sent over Colorado and Oregon to play Miami in the 2002 BCS Rose Bowl title game. They lost the game, 37-14, and the game wasn't as close as the score seems to indicate.
The obvious solution is to mandate that only a conference champion can move on to the title game, but that rule is not in place. The BCS mandates that the No. 1 and No. 2 teams play in the title game, and all conference champions get an automatic bid to their respective tie-in bowl.
In the above scenario, Oregon State goes to Pasadena, and USC goes to Miami.
Fair? Hardly.
The good news is that the non-human polls are taking into consideration the quality of opponents these teams are playing—so far, the Big 12 has the strongest conference play, based on the current rankings.
The Pac-10's conference play has not helped USC, but as more and more teams lose, some Pac-10 teams and ACC teams will move up in the rankings—like Virginia and Oregon, two teams that USC beat.
The SEC has Florida and Georgia playing in two weeks, and one of those teams will have two losses. With Auburn, Tennessee, and South Carolina suddenly not helping conference strength, the SEC's SOS will drop as well.
In the meantime, some Big 12 teams will drop lower in the rankings due to the South's having to play each other. Their SOS will drop. The only conferences that benefit from this are the Pac-10, the Big Ten, and the ACC.
Hard to believe, but it's a legit concern. Suddenly, USC vs. Ohio State could be playing in Miami if Penn State loses in Columbus.
Let the debates begin.
167 comments Last one added 8 months ago — Leave a Comment
Justin Goar 8 months ago
"The obvious solution is to mandate that only a conference champion can move on to the title game, but that rule is not in place."
but i think for all intents and purposes, it is in place. last year kinda proved that.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Unfortunately, it is not. There is no rule that states you have to win your conference. I think that should be mandated...if you can't win your conference, why should you be rewarded?
Last year was a fluke. There were too many good two-loss teams out there, so they went with the team that they viewed as the strongest conference.
This year, we could get a Texas-Oklahoma rematch in Miami!
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Donald Fincher 8 months ago
Lisa,
I kind of agree with you except for this. The top 4-5 teams in the SEC would win the WAC yet Boise will be in a BCS game if they stay above 12th in the BCS standings. So, if you have to win your conference, then why be in a good conference?
At the same time, upsets happen and it may be that the best team didn't win the conference so the best team from a conference may not be the winner and might not have even played in the conference championship game.
So I can see both sides. This is just one of the many dilemmas with the BCS system
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"Last year was a fluke. There were too many good two-loss teams out there, so they went with the team that they viewed as the strongest conference."
And they left out MY Kansas Jayhawks... who were a ONE-loss team. I guess that the BCS just wanted to force Tommy Bowden out of a job, lolz :)
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HD Handshoe -- BlockONation.com 8 months ago
That's the dumbest thing I've ever hear Justin.....
Conference championship games are all about $$$
Write to your conference President and tell him your championship game is hurting your teams chances of winning the BCS title and I'll give you 1 guess what he'll say to you if he even would bother to reply!
They do not care about the BCS "mythical" title, they care about more $$$, PERIOD.
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Mark Rupert 8 months ago
If the pieces fall in place the second runner up Trojans will play for the crystal ball, and we won't hear the boys from ESPN say,you can't play for the Championship if you don't win your Conference.
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Justin Goar 8 months ago
HD,
conf cg's help you as much as they can hurt you. win and it can catapult you (LSU 07, UF 06) lose and it can hurt you.
but yes, money is the main reason they exist.
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Doug Kraus 8 months ago
If that rule was in place, then Notre Dame could NEVER EVER play for all the marbles. I say put it in for that reason alone!
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Frank Sanchez 8 months ago
Notre Dame has always been included in BCS speak. They always mention the 6 BCS conferences and Notre Dame. That way they are covered by BCS law. Notre Dame always gets in IF they are in the top 8 of the final BCS Standings.
BCS says the regular season is a playoff. I call BS on that. They play their own conference and 1 or 2 strong non conference teams with 2-3 cupcakes. Complete bull. a 16 team playoff format is all I ask, of 120 Div 1 teams... ya know?
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thomas moreland 8 months ago
i don t think okie state beats texas! penn state has a tough one at osu that will clear up things a little there and does florida play alabama? i know they play georgia! really looks like texas oklahoma and usc have the upper hand! if texas gets a loss wow! then things really get topsy turvy!!! i grew up in so cal but the gators are growing on me! lolid like to see florida play usc lol thomas
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"i don t think okie state beats texas! penn state has a tough one at osu that will clear up things a little there and does florida play alabama? i know they play georgia! really looks like texas oklahoma and usc have the upper hand! if texas gets a loss wow! then things really get topsy turvy!!! i grew up in so cal but the gators are growing on me! lolid like to see florida play usc lol thomas"
Sorry thomas, but I do NOT think that EITHER Florida OR USC has a chance to play in the BCS National Championship Game... just as long as there is an UNDEFEATED UTAH, lol :)
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Tony Bishop 8 months ago
Don't you think the SEC champ would go before Ohio State? You can't tell me that the polls will put OSU above a one-loss LSU or Florida or Alabama SEC champion.
And I also disagree on the "Nightmare" comment. I can't wait for it. This would make the third straight year that the intelligent fan base of college football will refuse to fully recognize the championship game as a championship game.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Tony-
Why would the SEC champ go before Ohio State? Which one of these SEC teams has consistently played well? Florida lost to Ole Miss, Georgia got blown out by Bama and remains unimpressive, and Bama has looked average the last two weeks. Florida looks like the only SEC team that is starting to make a run.
While the SEC looked strong last year, they clearly don't look as strong this year. Sorry. This year, they lost three good teams that were supposed to make the SEC look good from top to bottom: Tenn, Auburn and South Carolina. LSU is on the fence...I'm not sold on them. This weekend should shake out which team, LSU or Georgia, has a shot.
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Nick V 8 months ago
I agree with Tony the more controversy the better can't wait hopefully it will push more towards some form of playoff. I am under the impression that the SEC is just beating up on one another. The defense is still there with Tenn, Auburn, and Miss St. Kentucky doesn't look all that bad in my opinion and Vandy certainly was a surprise. The SEC is just too balanced anyone can beat anyone unlike the Big Ten/12. Those conferences are overrated and I would love to see Bama play anyone of those other top teams or even Florida or Georgia.
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Tony Bishop 8 months ago
Ah, but you're missing my point Lisa.. I agree on the SEC opinion you hold. Overall, the conference is disappointing outside of Alabama.
However, what makes OSU consistent? Ohio State couldn't score a single offensive touchdown against Purdue (a team that gave up 38 to Notre Dame and 48 to Northwestern). They looked mediocre against Ohio and even more mediocre (probably an oxymoron but whatever, lol) against what has turned out to be a terrible Wisconsin team.
If anything, the BCS should consist of one SEC team, two Big 12 teams, USC and potentially a third B12 team.. oh, and Penn State IF they run the table. The Big 10, Big East and ACC should be forced to watch.
Boise State is probably more of a legitimate threat in the BCS Championship than Ohio State.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"Don't you think the SEC champ would go before Ohio State? You can't tell me that the polls will put OSU above a one-loss LSU or Florida or Alabama SEC champion."
Actually, I think that an UNDEFEATED UTAH would go before a 1-loss SEC Champ AND a 1-loss Ohio State team...
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Gray Ghost 8 months ago
Lisa, agreed Georgia got blown out for a half. Since we are only counting halves, we won the second half 30-10...does that count for us or against us. We looked horrible in the first, but we lost by 11 points, is that a blow-out???? Bama was ranked #8., whereas Oregon State was unranked.
The better argument against Georgia to me is that they have not looked very impressive. We have the opportunity to turn that around! We'll see.
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Carson Howell 8 months ago
Tony/Lisa-
"""However, what makes OSU consistent? Ohio State couldn't score a single offensive touchdown against Purdue (a team that gave up 38 to Notre Dame and 48 to Northwestern). They looked mediocre against Ohio and even more mediocre (probably an oxymoron but whatever, lol) against what has turned out to be a terrible Wisconsin team."""
Oh yea Lisa, Tony is also leaving out OSU's horrible showing of retardation on their most recent trip to Southern Cal.
OSU will always be a glimmer in the BIG-10's eye no matter how many times they cha-cha-choke, and apparently, Lisa's as well.
Lisa-
"""Florida lost to Ole Miss, Georgia got blown out by Bama and remains unimpressive, and Bama has looked average the last two weeks."""
Florida lost to ole miss by 1 point. Have you watched ole miss play? They haven't lost by more than 1 TD all season. MISS just got beat by #2 BAMA by 4 points? Ole miss is not the same ole miss we know and love...to run over. To use this loss to Ole miss by a point as a HUGE never-expected upset is just WRONG, ole miss is a GOOD team who has beat UF 19 out of the last 30 times.
Georgia lost to Bama by 11 pts., that's it! In college football we don't go by 1st. Qtr scores, or halftime scores, or even 3rd Qtr. scores, it's all about the score when the final buzzer sounds, and that score, Mam, was not a blowout.
How do you so easily condemn Bama and UGA as unimpressive? They have beat the other SEC teams they have played, obviously you hold a low stranded for those teams, such as KEN, MISS and VANDY, and you frankly have no basis for it, whatsoever. All three have had good-great seasons with QUALITY wins.
If Bama and UGA are "unimpressive" after beating those three teams, then we will have to abruptly agree to disagree.
Tell me if I'm getting all this?
UGA&BAMA's W's over KENT,VANDY,MISS(unimpressive) < OSU 2 score W over 2-5 OHIO? or a 3 pt. W over 3-4 WISC?(impressive?)
Please make me understand, bleacher-queen.
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Justin Goar 8 months ago
i get where you're coming from and totally agree but i think the voters realize they have the power to create the matchup they want to see. therefore i don't think you'll see rematches or non conf winners getting in.
there was more crazy erratic jumping this year than in past years with the polls. i think the groundwork is being laid for voters to jump teams in and out of spots with little justification.
but who knows, it's been crazy and we see somethign new every year.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
I hope you're right Justin. The last week of regular season play the humans can have an affect, but not the non-humans. If the non-humans like USC, they won't consider the non-champion aspect.
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Scott Glesner 8 months ago
I don't see it as a problem due to the fact that the BCS takes a look at all games, not just games played in conference. I think we may see a State Fair rematch with OU and UT again...is that fair? Yes...since there is a chance that the two best teams reside in the same division of the same conference. Might want to fix that comment: "like Virginia and Oregon State, two of USC's wins"...might want to say "opponents" instead of "wins."
However, USC will start to dwindle in the SOS part of the comp polls...they still have Washington and basically average teams...no one that really pops up.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Scott-
I think you're wrong about USC's SOS going down, but if it does, then that will take care of that problem!
As far as OU Texas, wow, yes it could happen again, but I don't think it well. Didn't we have that scenario of Ohio State and Michigan in a possible relapse? The BCS is all about money...they would hate to see a title game that is a regional-interest game.
That's why I strongly believe in at least a plus-one system. No bias, no money-interest.
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Scott Glesner 8 months ago
I agree with the Plus-1...I would like to see the Cotton Bowl added and have 5 BCS Bowls. However, these would be chosen as the following:
Rose: Big Ten/Pac-10
Fiesta: Big 12/At-large
Cotton: At-large/At-large
Sugar: SEC/At-large
Orange: ACC/At-large
(Of course, the Big East Champ would be considered "at-large")
The bowls would select in the same order that they do now. Then, look at whatever rating system after those are played and have the Championship Game at one of those 5 locations.
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Nick The Only 8 months ago
As long as there is a 1 or zero loss Big 12 and a 1 or zero loss SEC champion, USC will not make the title game.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
I don't see any teams from those conferences with 0 or 1 losses....if they did, well, they deserve to go, but what if there isn't one left with that record? That's what I addressed in the article...if USC won out, they would go.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"As long as there is a 1 or zero loss Big 12 and a 1 or zero loss SEC champion, USC will not make the title game."
And as long as there is an UNDEFEATED UTAH... USC will NOT make it to the BCS National Championship Game, lolz :)
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BabyTate 8 months ago
Lisa, I think this will work itself out. I'll tell you why. The Big 12 plays no defense so you can't count on anything but outscoring the opponent and that is a recipe for disaster.
I believe we're far more likely to see Sou Cal, Penn State, Alabama, and Ohio State fight it out for the two positions. Except for a rematch of OSU-SC, everyone wants to see the other teams get it on, rematch of the '78 title game with Bama and Penn St, and an SC vs either Penn State or Bama would bring the house down. Florida, Georgia, and LSU have a shot to derail Alabama in the regular season or title game. I'd say Southern Cal does have to improve their computer ranking of #10 before they can breath easy about being in the Title game but, they should be undefeated the rest of the season and I can see them finishing in the Top 2.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
BT-
I think it's Florida and Texas, and by gosh, they look like the two best teams in the country along with Penn State. I don;t think Bama will make it...they are winning ugly, like the Buckeyes did.
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dave jenkins 8 months ago
"like Virginia and Oregon State, two of USC's wins"...might want to say "opponents" instead of "wins."
I agree, needs to be fixed. Overall though a great article because yet again we see the flaw in the BCS system. How can USC possibly play in the title game while Oregon St. plays in the Rose Bowl if they both win out?
A rematch will NOT happen in the BCS champ game, at least I would hope not just like I'm glad there was no rematch two years ago with OSU and Michigan.
I predict it will be Florida(and I'm an LSU fan) vs. Texas. That would be a phenomenal game.
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Scott Glesner 8 months ago
I see you saw the same thing as I did...(wins/opponents)
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Dave-
But those two were both wins. If I say opponents, it doesn't indicate whether or not it was a win or loss.
Florida and Texas would be an awesome game!
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TOSU-63 8 months ago
Lisa,
They were not both wins, if you recall, Oregon St beat USC.
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Daniel Howie 8 months ago
Lisa,
I think you meant another OSU: Ohio State, not Oregon State. USC lost to Oregon State, which is why we're having this debate. :)
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Edmon 8 months ago
Too early to play the what if game. SC needs for it's OOC scheduled teams (Ohio State, Virginia and Notre Dame) to do well if it plans on making it. There's nothing left for them to do. The rest of their schedule seems plausible. Still, it would take either of the Big 12 or SEC champ to have two losses and Penn State a drop a game. You can do a lot of what if for every team in the Top 10-15. I prefer to just sit back and watch it unwind.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Edmon...the problem I have with a Big 12 or SEC team needs two losses in order for someone else to move up means there is conference bias. If West Virginia was a great team that happened to be in a lousy conference, is it fair they should get penalized? No? remember, this is about the best team, not the best conference...I think that gets lost sometimes.
The puters, by the way, have Ohio State at #5, and USC at #10. How do you explain that? They both have equal records, but USC beat OSU. That in itself should have them placed higher than OSU. The only true gauge is head-to-head competition, not perceived strength of opponent.
If anyone has a beef, technically it's Georgia. They lost to the #2 team, Bama, and are behind USC, who lost to an unranked team. If SOS is so important, then why did the puters rank Ohio State ahead of USC, but not Georgia ahead of USC?
See my point? If there is going to be consistency, then let there be consistency. Not sporadically applied.
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Edmon 8 months ago
Bias is a very tricky word to throw out when trying to defend USC's spot in the title game. If any of the teams from the Big XII/SEC can win their conference and have one or less losses, I'd take their road over USCs. USC may be a better team, but that doesn't mean they deserved it over the course of the season. Look at you, you got me playing this what if game.
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
The problem with the computers is that margin of victory is not allowed in the formula. If USC had won by a point instead of by 32, it wouldn't have changed the computer rankings. In reality, beating a team by a large margin is an indication of how good a team is and the voters take this into account. That's what is funny to me. The voters will always consider margin of victory, while the computers are not allowed to. If the computers could talk, they would be protesting. Don't blame the computers, blame the rules.
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Ray Bogusz 8 months ago
O_O
I hadn't thought this far ahead, Lise.
I hope you're right so I can keep bitching about how there needs to be a playoff.
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Jim Sheridan 8 months ago
Insightful Lisa....I think that PSU v OSU is going to be a good one, what I think it comes down to is, will OSUs defense step up to the challenge? 5 Stars
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Lew Wright 8 months ago
Hey Lisa,
As is usually the case this time of year, a fan can go crazy coming up with scenario that makes sense for a championship game, but the system calls for something different.
You've done a great job exploring the possibilities with one little exception:
"The Pac-10's conference play has not helped USC, but as more and more teams lose, some Pac-10 teams and ACC teams will move up in the rankings—like Virginia and Oregon State, two of USC's wins. "
Correct me if I'm wrong, which won't be the first time, but didn't Oregon State beat USC?
That said, the Trojans will win out this season for a shot at the national championship.
Right?
Lew
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Lew-
yes you are correct. And so if an Oregon, al, or Oregon State wins most of their games, their rankings will get better and suddenly, SC's loss will be to an ranked opponent, not unranked. That helps them. Same with Florida...they have to hope Ole Miss starts winning, or some other team like Tennessee, who isnt playing up to the expectations of the preseason.
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Lew Wright 8 months ago
Thanks for clearing that up Lisa...I think. Man, my head hurts after weighing all these possibilities.
Lew
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Raj Kamruddin 8 months ago
Hey Lisa..
Is it possible that the end of the season matchup between USC and Notre Dame may actually mean something to both teams. We already know, while overmatched heavily on paper that ND will treat this game as their championship and also means to possible meaningful bowl game, it could also come down to BCS game for USC if things play out how you write.
Win or Lose, it makes one of the best traditional rival games that much more interesting this year.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Raj-
That game will be huge! IF ND wins out, then they may be considered for a BCS bowl as well. Both teams have a lot riding on this game.
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Trey Jones 8 months ago
It's only mid October and already we have seen a slew of Top 10 upsets... I have no reason to think that this trend will not continue into early November!
So, I'm going to ignore the rankings until the Rays win the World Series in 7 games!
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Trey-
I'm rooting for the Rays too! :)
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
RAYS BASEBALL
A TRADITION . . . SINCE MAY 2008
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ss 8 months ago
Excellent read Lisa...
I think USC will go on to fill one of the slots and Oregon State will lose one or two of their remaining games. USC will meet a one lose SEC or Big 12 team after the two conferences beat each other up. Unfortunately, I have to agree with one of the earlier comments that the Buckeye's will not go ahead of a one lose SEC team (at least they don't deserve to), but I will laugh myself all the way down to Miami if they do. A plus one game would certainly help, but no need to take it any further; the controversy is way too much fun.
Go Bucks!
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
ss-
But here's the problem with what you are saying...you are saying a one loss SEC team deserves to go ahead of one loss Big Ten team. What if that team is LSU? Can you honestly tell me they look like they put up a good game against Penn State, USC, Texas? I don't think so. Florida yes, but LSU no, unless their O starts clicking.
We need to quit saying that a one or two loss conference team is better than a one loss team from another conference. It's biased.
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Ryan Stubbs 8 months ago
Let there be football!
Games begat polls, which begat arguments about polls, which begat commentating and writing about polls which begat giving us something to do with ourselves here at the Bleacher Report.
That being said...let's let the doomsday scenarios play themselves out and talk about the ridiculously fun slate of games over the next few weeks huh? Love the enthusiasm though.
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J.C. Hagan 8 months ago
"With Auburn, Tennessee, and South Carolina suddenly not helping conference strength, the SEC's SOS will drop as well."
Conference SOS's are only determined by NON-conference games (simple math - intraconference games always add 1 win and 1 loss). In that respect, Auburn is 2-0, Tennessee is 2-1, and SC is 3-0, so the three schools that you claim are "not helping conference strength" are actually 7-1 against other conferences.
Granted, Auburn will probably lose to WVU next week and hamper the SOS for LSU and Bama. Games like that are really what changes conference SOS, unless you want to look at individual teams, which would break down like this:
Florida *wants* Auburn to tank since they don't play them, and they especially want Mississippi to win out. Miami and Florida State winning are more important than Auburn (or even Tennessee or SC) losing.
Georgia needs CMU and Ga Tech to keep winning, Az St to stop sucking, and they want Alabama to roll until the SEC title game.
and so on. You can't just say "Auburn sucks, bad for SEC SOS" because conference records really cease mattering in weighing conferences against each other.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
J.C.-
But perceived strength DOES matter because the human polls look at that. Pollsters look at, they won't admit it. Actually, both USC and Georgia want ASU to do better, but it helps USC more because SC shut them out, albeit Georgia beat them on the road.
The bottom line is that if OlE Miss really starts winning, pollsters will be more forgiving of Florida's loss.
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Collin Whitchurch 8 months ago
My head hurts...
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
Just think... IF Utah wins out, then they are basically guaranteed a berth in the BCS National Championship Game, lolz :)
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Mine too Collin! :p
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ss 8 months ago
Lisa, If OSU beats Penn State (which I am expecting) they will have one lose against USC. Pretty impressive, but we will only get credit for the two big wins over Michigan State and PSU. If LSU ends up with just one lose, they will have beaten Georgia, Alabama and the SEC CG down the stretch. This will give them the NC game over the Buckeye's and I think that is the correct call. I think you and I differ in that I look at wins as wins (ugly or not) and you look at dominations like PSU has been doing all year and USC has done all year but for one game. Alabama could go undefeated and have many ugly games such as the Buckeyes in their NC run. In my opinion, this does not discredit a good team and actually points out their toughness.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
ss-
well, that's where we differ...I think PSU beats OSU. I don't think LSU gets away with less than one loss...they don't look that good.
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Isaac Luber 8 months ago
Too much has to happen. Also, you somewhat confused me. Also, PSU will not lose to OSU, as ss said above and as you said could happen in your article. Maybe PSU vs USC could happen, but probably not. I expect either PSU vs Bama or PSU vs Texas, or PSU vs someone else.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
Okay, let me simplify this... IF Utah wins out, then they get a berth to the BCS National Championship Game, lol :)
Does this clarify things for you all???
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Isaac Luber 8 months ago
Utah? I thought that you couldn't get a NC berth unless you were a BCS school. Last year, Hawaii won out and no other team was undefeated but they didn't go.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Jimson-
If Utah wins out they are not guaranteed an automatic BCS title game berth. They have to finish in the top 12 to qualify for an automatic bowl berth, or finish in top 16 AND be ranked higher than a BCS conference champion.
But nowhere are they guaranteed an auto berth to the title game. The only ones who are guaranteed that are No. 1 and No. 2.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"Utah? I thought that you couldn't get a NC berth unless you were a BCS school. Last year, Hawaii won out and no other team was undefeated but they didn't go."
Actually, MY Kansas Jayhawks also were undefeated last year... And Tommy Bowden was still Clemson's head coach, lolz :)
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Kent Moore 8 months ago
If Texas and Oklahoma get to play in the National Championship then the system is broken and any credibility the BCS still has will be lost.
People say that the Texas/Oklahoma game was amazing and an instant classic. But so was the Ohio State/Michigan game two years ago. And that was a 1 vs 2 game. Yes, Ohio State and Michigan got exposed in their respective bowl games, but at the time the were considering high caliber teams.
If Ohio State and Michigan don't get a rematch, then no one should.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
It would be hard pressed to see it happening. Texas would have to lose the conference championship after going 12-0, so they would be 12-1. OU would have to win out, but not play in CC game, ending up 11-1.
The SEC champ would have to ranked out of top ten, and Ohio State beats PSU, and each of them has an extra loss somewhere else down the road. USC would also have to have a loss. It could happen. Anything could happen.
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thomas moreland 8 months ago
utah does not play anyone hardly thats their main problem!!!! they cant get ranked very high because of their conference! if florida beats georgia and alabama they will jump up pretty far! how is ohio state ranked above usc who killed them!!! makes no sense!!! head to head games should carry more weight!!!! thats for damm sure. lsu is lucky to be where they are. if alabama plays like they did against ole miss florida will murder them!!!! i like texas if they can run out !against penn state if they can avoid a defeat !alabama looks flawed! thomas
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RedRaider Red 8 months ago
Happ in 2003 too when undefeated Oklahoma lost to Kansas St. in the Big 12 conf title and still played LSU for the title game.
Has there been a case where a team has won a NC game w/o winning its conf?
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
No...both teams that went on to play (Ok and Nebraska) lost in the title game. Justice has its rewards, doesn't it?
That's why I am sure if USC is ranked in the top 2 at the end of regular season play, another conf. champ will probably jump them by the human polls, but what about the non-human polls? They don't know history or a conf champion wish list for a title game. if it's a close race, the non-humans may push USC over.
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RedRaider Red 8 months ago
Yeah but USC is no Oklahoma/Nebraska... it'll either win the NC game or lose respectfully like against the Longhorns.
BTW, nice topic you picked to touch upon.... very nice infact... 5 stars n POTD.
I have a question for you though.... Yesteryear when Hawaii ran the table while no BCS team could, they were unranked preseason I think and took their time to ascend the polls. This year BYU were already at #9... what if they had ran the table and no BCS team would've done the same? Would they be ranked #1 or 2? Or is there a rule where non-BCS conferences can be ranked only as high (lets say 5) even if they win out?
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"I have a question for you though.... Yesteryear when Hawaii ran the table while no BCS team could, they were unranked preseason I think and took their time to ascend the polls."
Actually, MY Kansas Jayhawks also ran the table last year... when Tommy Bowden was still the head coach of Clemson, lolz :)
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
No there's no rule. Unfortunately, unless there are a lot of two loss BCS conference teams, I don't see Utah going to the NC. Plus, they still have to play BYU.
Thanks for the pick.
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Daniel Howie 8 months ago
Jimson,
How did your Jayhawks run the table last year? To run the table as I understand the term, you have to win all your games. Be undefeated. There was a 1 in the loss column for KU last year.
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RedRaider Red 8 months ago
I know... but he keeps writing KU ran the table n won the NC last yr...so I just assume hes crazy and not ask questions.
I like the Jayhawks...too bad they had to run into us.... sorry Jims... KU's 16-game winning streak at home comes to an end now.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"Jimson,
How did your Jayhawks run the table last year? To run the table as I understand the term, you have to win all your games. Be undefeated. There was a 1 in the loss column for KU last year."
Then Hawaii did NOT run the table last year... They also had a '1' in the loss column. And not only that, Hawaii also NEEDED OVERTIME, to defeat Louisiana Tech, on SEPTEMBER 8th, lolz :)
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
Jimson, this is the first somewhat intelligent comment I have seen you make. I dare you to make this a trend.
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Long John Silver 8 months ago
if my memory serves right - you explained me this one, using the la-liga example last time right ...
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
Stop with all these stupid scenerios.
USC should in no way play for the NC. The lost to an unranked team and other than OSU they don't have a top 25 team on their schedule.
Thinking Oregon State will win out is wishful thinking and makes for a nice conversation but that is all it is.
IF USC, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State all end up with the same record then there is no way USC should get in. THe Big 12, SEC, and Big 10 are all stronger conferences than the Pac 10. You say that conference strength shouldn't matter, well it does and that's life. Going undefeated in the SEC is a lot more impressive than doing so in the Pac 10.
The SEC is always one of the toughest conferences to play in and they SEC Champ has always been doubted by the media because they play so many close games. THe SEC is 4-0 in BCS NC games. In 2003 LSU was the underdog to Oklahoma but won, in 2006 Florida was a huge underdog to Ohio State but won, I mean dominated Ohio State, last year despite having two losses LSU still wins the NC. Auburn even went 13-0 and was left out b/c they didn't beat there opponents by enough points, i.e. style points. THen OU went out and proved they didn't belong.
Style points are for people who don't understand sports. In 2006 Florida won their 8 SEC games by an average of 7.75 points. That made everyone think that they were inferrior to OSU b/c OSU won all 8 of their conference games by an average of 26.625 points. But we all know what happened after that.
A win is a win, in no other sport does winning by a certain margin mean anything.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Michael-
No need to use "stupid" in the conversation. If you say a win is a win, then what does it matter what conference is perceived stronger? You can't prove the SEC is the strongest conference. That's a perception.
If the best team in the country (like PSU) is in a perceived weak conference, it shouldn't matter. This is about the best team, not conference, so get off your conference bandwagon and start treating a championship as two teams playing each other. NOT conferences.
If the Big Ten is a stronger conference than the Pac-10, then how come Ohio State lost to USC? PSU beat Oregon State, and Oregon State beat USC, but transitive property doesn't work in determining a better team.
Otherwise, Louisiana Monroe beat Alabama last year, so since Georgia lost to Bama, does that mean Louisiana Monroe is a better team than Georgia? Of course not.
Last year, some very good teams finished with the same record as LSU. LSU was chosen in part due to subjective voting. The key word being "chosen." They didn't earn it by having a better record than some other teams, and usually, the two teams that got to the title game are obvious. Last year it wasn't...three other teams could have been chosen. They were picked by coaches, sportswriters and puters.
Get it?
Head-to-head competition determines that.
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Carson Howell 8 months ago
Micheal-
Probably one of the best comments I've ever read on BR.
I wish I could give it 5 Stars and POTD, because I would.
It makes so much sense, but I promise you, some of BR's finest still will fail to comprehend it.
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Raj Kamruddin 8 months ago
Good arguement lisa. Im not one to put a whole lot of stock into best confrence talk. If PSU is the best team, what the rest of Big 10 shouldnt matter. Same goes for any confernece. The best team in the nation who beats those on schedule should not be penalized because of confernce. IF thats the case, lets throw out the polls. Lets play the season, and then the conference with the best combined win-loss record can have their top 2 teams battle for the NC.
If thats the case, my Fighting Irish are screwed!
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Sue M. 8 months ago
Ohio State is legit at this point IMO....They really came out and played well against Michigan State. I really think that they should be ranked 6th or so...but, they just don't get the love. It's understandable, but I am a die hard OSU fan, so I guess I need to let it be.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Leanna-
If you beat PSU weekend, they will jump! Thank goodness the two of you play....at least a head-to-head will be done to determine who is better.
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Scott Pusich 8 months ago
Um, yeah.
PLAYOFF!!!!! ;-)
Agreed on head-to-head competition. Some teams (i.e. Kansas last year) benefit by not having to play the top teams in their conference, and the resulting record (and some polls) don't take that into account.
Cap conference size at 10, require complete conference schedules, replace conference championship games with an eight team playoff, consisting of the seven best conference champions (BCS?) and one at-large spot (to allow for the undefeated mid-major champion or other team ranked 8th or higher).
It's less likely for the Pac-10 to send a non-champion to a BCS bowl than for other conferences, based on previous years; a few years ago Mack Brown successfully lobbied Texas into a BCS spot over California. [sarcasm] Ah, lobbying the BCS 'electoral college' and beauty-contest polling, the reasons I follow college football. [/sarcasm]
Great article, Lisa, POTD!
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Scott-
Yes, Kansas benefited from a soft schedule, but they did win their BCS Bowl game.
But yeah, I'll about head-to-head, that's why at the very minimum, there should be at least a plus one format!
Thanks Scott.
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Daniel Howie 8 months ago
That lobbying proved to be an accurate call as Texas beat Michigan and Texas Tech wiped Cal off the field. But I do agree some changes should be made to this system. Ideally, Id like to see a discarding of the conference bowl tie-ins. That means #1 v #2, #3 v. #4, #5 v. #6, and so on, no matter what conferences the schools represent.
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Gray Ghost 8 months ago
Great article! I hate the BCS. Too many teams have been ripped off. The Dawgs were the best team in the nation last year at the end of the season - in my opinion. However, we didn't win our conference, so too bad. If you can't win your conference no one is going to give you sympathy votes. We may not be winning impressive, but we aren't playing wimps either. POTD
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Amen...I was wondering when someone from Georgia would state the obvious. They certainly looked to be the best team at the end of the year!
Thanks for the pick.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
"Amen...I was wondering when someone from Georgia would state the obvious. They certainly looked to be the best team at the end of the year!"
What are you talking about???
MY Kansas Jayhawks definitely LOOKED LIKE THE BEST TEAM last season, lolz :)
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Robert 8 months ago
"If anyone has a beef, technically it's Georgia. They lost to the #2 team, Bama, and are behind USC, who lost to an unranked team."
Wow, Lisa! You finally made a pro-Georgia statement that puts them ahead of the Trojans!
If they beat LSU, shouldn't they be ranked above the Trojans in the BCS standings?
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Robert-
I call 'em like I see 'em. No bias, although some say I am. Georgia got screwed by the BCS in my mind. They didn't reward them losing to a top 2 team, while Ohio State clearly got that reward losing to USC. It's not just.
Both Florida and USC DID get dinged in the puters for losses to unranked teams, but for some reason, in the human polls, there is a huge discrepancy.
If they beat LSU? Here's the problem...I think LSU is ranked too high as well. They don't look good to me. Florida looks to be the best, with Bama second, and if Bama starts playing better, then they could be up there with Florida. Usually, teams start to play better mid season. USC is, Florida is, Ohio State is, PSU is.
LSU and Bama are not. I'm on the fence with Georgia.
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Robert 8 months ago
Sooo...was that a yes or a no?
I'm still looking at Florida with some suspicion, they blow-out LSU, but they looked very bad against Ole Miss in a loss.
Georgia is leading the SEC in offense...even though the scoreboards aren't lighting up for us.
The redzone production of the Dawgs is the only thing that is lacking right now. The Dawgs should have had 30+ against ASU, Tennessee, and Vandy, but couldn't find the endzone.
So I can see why most people are skeptical...the stats and the points just don't line up at all.
Oh well, there's a lot of game to be played.
Go Dawgs!
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GeorgiaDawg 8 months ago
Sooooooo, I know that no one thinks it will happen, but what if... Georgia beats LSU and FLorida... then they beat Kentucky, Auburn and Tech..... and then we get revenge against Alabama in the SEC Championship game....
How could UGA not get a shot after what happened last year?
Everyone seems to think it will work itself out.. but I have a feeling that even if they win out, Georgia will still get screwed..... again!!
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Robert 8 months ago
You're probably right, GD.
Even Lisa avoided answering the question I posed. But I'm not that surprised about that.
Before the season, it was "if they make it through that schedule with one-loss, they deserve a shot at the title" but now, it's "well, the schedule doesn't look as tough as it did in the preseason."
Which stinks, since USC will probably only play 1 ranked team, 1.
We Georgia fans have to realize that it's USC's world, and we're just playing in it. We'll never be a better team than Florida, even if we beat them. We don't put up style points like the Big XII does. We don't play enough "real teams" since we play non-conference "cupcakes" like Arizona State, Georgia Tech and Central Michigan. Even if we do make it to the SECCG and win, we got blow out by Bama in one half early in the season. We didn't put up 66 points on Tennessee and Vandy. We've lost too many starters to still be good.
We have the best pro-draft QB, a pro-ready RB, an All-SEC Freshmen receiver, a coach that has nearly an 80% win percentage, but we aren't good, we are just playing "okay".
So we should just toss in the towel, and let the computers tell us we aren't good. We're just not that good.
We lost a game already, and got blown out in it(even though we only got blown out in one half), that apparently is what everyone will think about, even if we win out.
Nevermind the fact that USC was down 21-0 at the half to an UNRANKED TEAM. They are coached by Pete Carroll, the greatest coach ever, EVER!
The Dawgs need to play win a chip on their shoulders. GATA!
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HD Handshoe -- BlockONation.com 8 months ago
USC SHOULD be #8, not #5 & Florida shouldn't even be top 10 after the Ole Miss loss....LSU was way overrated so 51-21 means nothing!
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Cannot argue with that. I almost agree completely, think Florida and USC should be about the same...at this point. :)
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Carson Howell 8 months ago
YEAH!!! UF shouldn't even be ranked after losing by a point to Ole Miss, a team that hasn't lost by more than a touchdown all season. Squad that lost by 3 pts. to ranked Vandy, and 4 points to #2 BAMA. What a horrible team they are!
OSU should just always move up in the rankings, no matter how many times they get embarrassed! Hey! who cares if they can't muster up more than 1 FG in 60 minutes of play against USC! It's the BIG-10 people! They are all so good that whoever losses between PENN st and OSU, neither should drop because their schedules are so tuff!(Screw the SEC, drop those guys 5 spots during their bi-week, they suck!). Yeah OSU beat the #20 Spartans 45-7, man what a big win over the rightfully ranked #20 Spartans! they are a really good, though, don't care what the score board says.
"THE" Ohio State, what a joke.
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dave jenkins 8 months ago
you don't get it do you? several of us have tried to correct you. You stated "LIKE VIRGINIA AND OSU, TWO OF USC'S WINS" However OSU beat USC so you need to correct your false information even though we all know it's just a typo. Read back through it. Still a good article though.
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David Singleton 8 months ago
USC has played two of College Football's three OSU's:
USC beat Ohio State University (OSU)
USC lost to Oregon State University (OSU)
USC has not played Oklahoma State University (OSU)
To most people (east coast bias and all that) OSU in shorthand means "Ohio State" not "Oregon State"
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
I guess the BCS was more impressed with USC beating #30 Oregon State rather than Florida beating #48 Ole Miss. Also, Oregon is ranked #31. I wonder if that has something to do with it?
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Anthony Elias 8 months ago
Way too early to worry about any of this. USC will lose again.
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Jimson Cuenta 8 months ago
I couldn't agree more with your comment... USC will find a way to lose to Stanford again, lolz :)
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
It could come in Tuscon this weekend!
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robert carola 8 months ago
need a playoff system period!
The championship game is for extra money so I do not feel sorry for conferences that choose to reap in extra money at their own peril. Athletes need to consider these scenarios when thinking about what school to attend. I am disturbed that the Pac 10 gets dissed on the regular by most fans but they are a legit conference. I would have preferred to have read about how the Big 12 is weak on "D" and that is one reason for the huge offensive numbers. The Big 12 will be exposed soon enough and that is a bigger concern to me because when I look at the defensive numbers of Texas Tech, Kansas, OK st, and Mizzoo it is weaker than most. Look at there wins and it is even less impressive, there SOS will drop like a rock when TT loses two games and KU and Mizzoo lose three or four times. Losing late in the season is a cardinal sin when positioning for bowls and the Big 12 might get burned.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Robert-
You made a prfound statement taht I totally agree with...it's pardonable to lose early, but not late. I have always believed that. The month of November is the season to remember!
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
The SOS matter Lisa? If you say yes then that means the strength of your conference matters because each team plays 8 or nine conference games. Thus, if your conference is weak your schedule is weak and vice versa.
I agree, just because Alabama is the best team in the SEC doesn't mean they are the best team in the country. A team like WVU who plays in the Big East could be better than Bama even though the Big East is extremely weak. The problem is how do we know? If WVU doesn't play anyone good then how are we to know they are better than Bama who played teams like LSU, UGA, Auburn, and Florida? THis is just an example.
SOS proves wheather you are legit or not. If a heavyweight boxer beats a bunch of inexperienced 150 lbs men to gain the title then are we to really take him seriously?
You said this, "If the Big Ten is a stronger conference than the Pac-10, then how come Ohio State lost to USC? PSU beat Oregon State, and Oregon State beat USC, but transitive property doesn't work in determining a better team."
I completley agree that transitive property doesn't work in college football and I myself don't like when people use it. But just b/c OSU lost to USC doesn't mean the Pac 10 is better. You have to look at the conference as a whole and see how many quality teams there are in each one.
For instance last year the SEC only had 2 of 12 teams finish with losing records. The Pac 10 had 5 of 10 teams finish with losing records. I think someone could resonable infer that the SEC was better overall then the Pac 10 by that. That's not to say USC couldn't be better than LSU and that in lies the problem.
I think we have some different opinions about SOS and conference strength but I think we both agree there are a lot of underlying problems with college football.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Michael-
SOS is important at the END of the season...that's all that counts. Auburn was a top ten team, remember? Beating them means what? Nothing.
And that is my point. many teams have inflated stats and rankings when everything hasn't shaken out yet. What if USC loses their next 6 games? Then beating them when they were #1 means squat,..they weren't a #1 team after all.
How do u judge which conference is better? YOU CAN'T. All you can prove is that one team in one conference is better than another in head-to-head competition. I don't buy comparing conference strengths because you cannot compare conferences when every team from one conference doesn't play every one from another conference.
As far as the SEC having 10/12 teams finish with winning records...yes, but each team played 25% of their games against cupcakes, sans a few. LSU has a dismal non-conference sked and is 4-0 after that. Of course they are ranked high. And that is not reflective of how good they are. LSU played two teams that are currently the bottom five in division 1A. How many did they play on the road?
And just because they had more teams with winning records doesn't mean they have better teams...could it be that they are also getting 4 easy wins, and 2 or 3 conf wins puts them over the .500 mark? Please think about that. Records aren't always an indication of who is superior...only head-to head is.
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
You can compare conference strengths by non-conference records. Ranking conferences by their overall non-conference record is not really useful, but if you look at their records broken down against each conference you can make some valid assumptions. It is clear that the Big 12 and the SEC are the two best conferences this year, but trying to rank one higher than the other will always be debatable.
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
That first sentence is suppose to say "DOES SOS matter Lisa" not "the". Sorry.
Also, so many people, including the experts get so caught up with style points. Why does a team have to win by 20 or 30 points to be considered good?
Lets say Bama goes 11-1 and wins every game by less than a TD. At the same time USC goes 11-1 and wins every game by 20 or more. Does that mean USC is better? No.
It's kinda the same thing you say, just b/c a team plays in a stronger conference doesn't mean they are better than a team who plays in weaker conference.
O wow, Im starting to realize just how messed up college football is.
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Nick Martin 8 months ago
Oregon State winning out would fill me full of glee, unfortunatly they have ASU, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon to still get through.
Me, as a Beaver fan, would be happy with a Sun Bowl or Holiday bowl apperance.
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Nick Martin 8 months ago
fill* me of glee
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Michael Shibley 8 months ago
People will stop complaining so much if they just make a simple playoff...it would solve SO MANY problems. It is easier to complain who is the eighth best team than who is the second best team...more room for error.
Oh well, maybe when I am old and gray I will see a playoff.
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Nick Martin 8 months ago
Would it really?
How do you make the cut-off at the fourth team, or eigth?
There will be even more 1 loss teams wanting to get in the playoff
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robert carola 8 months ago
The Big East is weak, really, how unfounded of a comment is that to make? Could you Michael, please expand on the point that the Big East is weak with at least one supporting fact that makes sense? You intimated that WVU had or has a weak schedule and this sounds far fetched due to South Florida beating Auburn and WVU beating Georgia in a major bowl, did you forget these facts? Pitt beating WVU last year is the equivalent of Fla beating Georgia or Texas beating OK or Michigan beating Ohio State. The Big East has represented itself as well as any other conference in Bowl wins, so again, please explain how you came to the conclusion that the Big East is weak?
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
Robert, it was just an example. You should've know that when I said WVU could be better than Bama. The teams and conferences I used didn't really matter, it was just an example as I was talking to Lisa.
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
I'm going to jump in and take the opportunity to bash the Big East, mainly because I'm a Florida Gator and find South Florida fans really annoying.
Here is why the Big East is weak...
One of your best teams, if not the best team, is West Virginia. Yet they lost to a 4-3 team from Conference-USA (East Carolina) and to a 4-3 Colorado team in the bottom half of the Big 12. weak.
Another one of your better teams, Pittsburgh, lost to a 3-4 team in the MAC (Bowling Green). weak.
South Florida, also possibly the best in the conference, lost to that same Pittsburgh team at home. somewhat weak. Their signature win is over an average Big 12 team, Kansas. weak.
Louisville lost at home to a mediocre SEC team, Kentucky, 27-2. weak.
The only team in the Big East that hasn't had a weak performance is Cincinnati.
And by weak I'm not talking about losing in general, I'm talking about losing to MAC teams, C-USA teams, and your better teams losing to average teams in other conferences.
The Big East has lost 12 non-conferences games, more than any BCS conference except the Pac-10.
They have played the second fewest non-conference games, with the Pac-10 playing less.
The better teams in the SEC and Big 12 don't lose to non-BCS conferences.
Sure they've won a couple games against the SEC in the past, but what have they done this year?
And Pitt was not a good team last year. WVU had a terrible game. They would admit that to you. Pitt lost 7 games last year. When does Georgia or Oklahoma or Ohio State lose 7 games? Those 3 teams are perennial power houses, while Pittsburgh is simply a rival of West Virginia. A rivalry game typically is close, but that is no excuse for WVU losing at home to that Pittsburgh team.
I doubt the Big East has "represented itself as well as any other conference in Bowl wins", but I'm not really concerned with past performances. The Big East is weak now, not before. They used to have Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. What the Big East is today hasn't existed long enough to consider history. I challenge you to prove the quoted statement above. That would require comparing the Big East to every conference. If any one conference is superior, you're wrong.
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Michael Collins 8 months ago
I'd love it if two second place conference teams played for the NC. Say, Oklahoma goes after Texas is beaten by Kansas (one for Jimson) in the championship. Okla jumps Texas. Then, Penn State, who lost to Ohio St, wins out while OSU loses to lowly Michigan. PSU jumps OSU due to SOS. Alabama is the top team in the land, in many minds, despite losing to Florida in the SEC championship for their only blemish. Fla stumbled against Fla St. USC was beaten by ND. Oregon beats Oregon St.
When Penn State and Oklahoma jump to the top, the Rose is faced with USC v. Ohio St. Oregon St v ND in the Fiesta. Alabama and Texas in the Sugar (everyone says it is the real NC). The only non-retro bowl is Pitts v. North Carolina, both of whom boosted ND's SOS.
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AZ Nemesis 8 months ago
Sounds like more "I hate USC" nonsense. If USC wins out, they deserve to be in consideration, all of the SEC and Big XII whiners notwithstanding. The PAC-10 has been screwed over by the BCS system more than once. Oregon had its go-round, and Cal got cut out of the BCS bowls due to voters caving to Mack Brown's whining a couple of years ago. Where was the sturm and drang then? Get over it.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
AZ-
I went to USC....you couldn't possibly mean I hate them.
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Jim Graham 8 months ago
I've never seen the point of the annual "OMG if X, Y, Z and 15 other things happen, we'll have a BCS....NIGHTMARE!!!" articles that get published in October when every college football fan knows that the sport is insanely unpredictable and so much can happen in 1 week, not to mention 6 or 7.
Wanna play another nightmare scenario game? Ok. Ready?
OMG, if the season ended today, an 8 team playoff would be a DISASTER!!!!!!!
Texas, Alabama, PSU, Oklahoma, USC, Oklahoma St, Georgia and Utah are the top 8. But right off the bat, Ohio State and Florida would be OUT!!!!! A team that lost to nobody but USC and has been in the last 2 title games, plus the 2006 champs with the defending Heisman winner that some think is the most talented team out there and only lost on a missed extra point would not make the playoff!!!!! And so would a BCS-conference unbeaten -- Texas Tech!!!! And now we need to account for the Big East and ACC, so two more top 8 teams would be out!!! OH NO!!! Congress won't let us screw the top undefeated non-BCS team, so that means Okie St and Georgia are out in place for South Florida and Georgia Tech!!!! Now, you have two undefeated BCS teams out, and you have Georgia out for losing to Bama, but USC in for losing to Oregon State. NIGHTMARE!!!! OMG!!!
Apart from the USC shocker, Oregon St has played the two bottom teams in the Pac-10 and won, and lost to the middle of the pack Stanford team. They still have to play Oregon, Cal, Arizona St., @UCLA, and @Arizona. Does anyone with a pulse actually expect them to win 3 of those games, much less 5?
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
jim-
lol....thank goodness the season doesn't end today! I think the non-conference games should be capped at three, and no FCS cupcakes allowed. That would help in the rankings for sure.
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Michael Oleszek 8 months ago
Now take a 1-loss SEC champ, a 1-loss Big 12 champ, a 1-loss USC, and a 1-loss Big 10 champ and who plays??
Like Florida, Texas, USC and Ohio State or Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, and Penn State. Add Georgia, Oklahoma State, LSU, Texas Tech, etc. into the mix.
Then what happens??
Or, if you have 2 undefeated non-BCS, like Utah and Tulsa, ranked in the Top 12??
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Michael...the non-humans would vote for only one of the non-BCS teams...only one can go BCS title bowling!
As far as the first scenario, I would think a one-loss SEC team and Big XII team would go...they play an extra game, which counts!
Penn State has to beat OSU....if they don't, and we assume that they both win out after PSU loses, OSU is the Big ten champ via tie-breaker, and will jump PSU in the polls.
Florida and Georgia both play each other, winner jumps ahead. Either Texas, TTech, Ok. State or OU has to represent the South in the CC game. If one of those four lost to to the North champ, assuming it is Kansas or Mizzou, I don't think either one of those two North teams would go to the title games, unless KU wins their remaining games.
KU right now, has only one loss (USF), but I don't see them escaping their tuff sked. And Mizzou has already 2 losses in the Big XII. Granted, they are not division losses, but still....if they came on strong and beat a South champ, I'm not sure they would be rewarded a title bowl over a one loss Big Ten or Pac-10 champ.
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Bob Baumbarger 8 months ago
GREAT ARTICLE!!!I thing theBCS pole is a joke and untill they have a playoff we will truley we never have the best two teams and to tell the truth I'm getting sick and tired of watching NCAAF do to the BCS how one top ten team lose a game and drops 8 or 9 spots and another top ten team only drops 2 or 3 spots thereis no consistent in the poles .but untill the BCS is done away with and they put in a playoffs then this system will alway suck and we we never see the true two best teams in the NCAAf and the less I want to watch but I know I will keep watching and keep complaining about the BCS
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Chaz Mattson 8 months ago
Lisa great points and great forecasting on what could be. College football has never gotten it right. While it's great to hope your champion is undefeated, it's not always reality, and that's OK. I'm glad you mentioned the fraud that Nebraska was in 2001 and CU and Miami both exposed them for what they were. I do have a system (college football article here we come) that works, not that the BCS will listen but it's getting that time, so I'll try to post by the weekend. The fact that you are rounding out your thoughts is gravy. Nice job. Now if we can only get the BCS to do the right thing? mmmm?
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Andy Sprague 8 months ago
Man! you're good! I wish you wrote for my local paper. SI or ESPN should hire you. I wonder if the system was changed to a playoff system, would there be this level of excitment this early in the season. And would we miss out on such well thought out and written arguments?
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Thanks Andy. (I work for FOXSports.com) Would we be able to bicker if it wasn't for the BCS? Heck yeah...we would always have something to bicker about...it's what makes CFB so fun!
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
You make a good point about SOS Lisa. You said SOS only matters at the end of the season when everything has shaken out.
However, have you ever heard the saying "It's not who you play it's when you play them." Look at LSU last year, early in the season when everyone was healthy they were dominating good teams (VT). However when they were beat up with injuries they lost a few and the defensive stats showed the drop off.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Yeah but LSU still won the NC. Lots of teams were beat up last year.
Oregon lost Dixon for the year, USC lost Booty for 3 games- LSU wasn't the only one who had some injury issues.
Yet, they were the ones who persevered, and came out on top. "The best team always wins" is the saying I believe in. I haven't heard of that other saying, but I don't necessarily prescribe to it. You play who you play w/o any leeway, unless inclement weather, like a hurricane hits.
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Lou Vozza 8 months ago
Who says playoffs make sense either? At the end of the regular season last year in the NFL, who thought the New York Giants were the best football team? Playoffs just give lousy football teams a chance to get hot, get all the breaks, and steal a championship from better teams.
Enjoy that? I just getting ready to crank up my anti-playoff rants. I waiting until the end of the season when everybody gets all wound up about it.
And Lisa is correct. SOS is for the end of the season in case we have to judge a one loss team beauty contest.
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Gail Hall 8 months ago
Eliminate conference tie-ins! Does the Pac-10 really deserve an automatic bid over the MWC given the MWC's dominance over them this year? And does the ACC deserve anything over the WAC or Conference USA?
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Lou Vozza 8 months ago
I agree. Why should some .500 ACC team that managed to win their conference bump a really good team out that finished second in their conference?
File that under: "Changes I want to make in college football that will never, ever happen."
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Gail-
I concur...there was an ACC team a few years ago (was it Pitt?) who got to go BCS bowling and a really good team got left out.
On your point about the MWC, excellent point, but USC didn't lose to a MWC team, so once again, we have people evaluating conferences, instead of teams. I don't think one weekend of Pac-10 conference v MWC games dictates who is better. That's simply a bit reaching there. It was one weekend.
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Gail Hall 8 months ago
I'm not suggesting that USC doesn't deserve a BCS bid, but that's because they're a good team, not because they play in the Pac-10. If TCU runs the table and their only loss is to Oklahoma, I think it'd be a shame to leave them out for an ACC or Big East champ. TCU could probably win both of those conferences. I would have no problem with an undefeated Utah or Boise State AND a one loss TCU making BCS games. I also think it's silly to limit two teams from a conference to BCS bowls. It screwed over Mizzou last year and Wisconsin the year before that, and you can bet it'll screw over another deserving Big 12 team this year.
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Gail Hall 8 months ago
I'm not suggesting that USC doesn't deserve a BCS bid, but that's because they're a good team, not because they play in the Pac-10. If TCU runs the table and their only loss is to Oklahoma, I think it'd be a shame to leave them out for an ACC or Big East champ. TCU could probably win both of those conferences. I would have no problem with an undefeated Utah or Boise State AND a one loss TCU making BCS games. I also think it's silly to limit two teams from a conference to BCS bowls. It screwed over Mizzou last year and Wisconsin the year before that, and you can bet it'll screw over another deserving Big 12 team this year.
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Dean Walker 8 months ago
I have to agree with Lou's point on the playoff system. Plus it's not going to happen for the same reason Notre Dame isn't going to join the Big 10 (read: big 11).
I have to get this in there before I start arguing logically: Utah will not be playing for the title in the same way Hawaii was left out of the championship game last year. Undefeated or not, I'm sorry. They won't get the love.
I really don't see Texas tripping after the way they handled Mizzou and beat Oklahoma, both of which I would have put as early season Championship contenders. But that being said, here's a point I would like to bring up: End of season losses hurt teams worse than early season losses. If the USC loss to an unranked (or even ranked) Oregon State team happened the last week of the regular season, we wouldn't be having this debate. Same about LSU, Georgia, and Florida. If their losses happened at the end of the season we would be seeing a 1-loss team like Ohio State in the picture, even though they may not be the better team, instead of the team that lost at the end of the season.
My prediction: Texas vs Penn State.
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jeff kalafa 8 months ago
here's one for you......
Every team in the Big 12 ends up with at least one loss...Penn State looses.....Alabama goes undefeated and plays a one-loss Georgia team in SEC Championship game......Georgia wins by a couple of points...........Computer could kick out a THIRD meeting for the Championship game...
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Michael Inglis 8 months ago
So who would be in Jeff if that did happen, in your opinion.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Jeff...wow! Now that is really scary!
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
Yeah the computer could do that, but 2/3 of the BCS formula is human voting. The humans would drop Alabama because they just lost and already had their chance to win on neutral turf. A one-loss Big 12 team is a really good team this year. Especially one that wins a conference championship. Definitely a team that will get the votes. So give me the Big 12 champion with one-loss and Georgia. I'm not confused.
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Darth Dawg 8 months ago
It's amazing to me how everyone was screaming that the Dawgs didn't belong in the National Title last year because they didn't win their conference. But now the media is fine with the thought of USC or OU going to the Title, and they're probably not going to to even win THEIR CONFERENCE!!!!!!!!!!!
It's bloody amazing.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
I agree Dawg, but the media is NOT fine if a non-conference winner goes...that's a nightmare. The BCS should have addressed this, should have tweaked the rules. Hey, I'm an SC fan, but I don't think anyone but a conf champ should be able to go to the title game.
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
I'm going to go out on a limb and say USC will win its conference. lol. I don't think most people are actually taking Oregon State seriously. There is no threat to USC. They simply have to avoid a letdown.
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Anthony 8 months ago
I am thinking about the TCU vs Tex game and Texas A&M game vs Texas. But then again I am for play offs and players at the college level being payed as well. Texas has got to lose at some point this year. If the officials had made 3 calls at TX vs OU correctly OU would be #1 and TX would be road kill.
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Anthony 8 months ago
OU has to slow it down though. It is leaving the defense on the field entirely to long. Shoot Outs are fun but when you come up against a well conditioned team the defense will always suffer in that situation. OU's defensive line was gassed by the 3rd quater early against Texas.
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Silver Fox 8 months ago
The bottom line is that this level of college football does not have a post season torunament or playofffs in which conference champions should settle things on the playing field. Instead, we get a beauty contest in which the opinions of poll voters detemine a make believe champion. I hope the BCS is messed up and very controversial because that's our only hope for a torunament. As much as I love the sport of college football, the NFL brand is superior not because of superior talent, but because it's champion is determine on the field. College football is fun and entertaining, but in the end it falls short because of the BCS and bowl b.s.
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Lou Vozza 8 months ago
The idea in college football is to go undefeated. If you lose you are out. That's called settling it on the field.
In 33 of the last 50 years the regular season has ended with 2 undefeated teams. The BCS Champ game was created to two undefeated teams to play against each other to determine the national championship.
If the past sampling holds true, an average of one out of three years we have to choose from among several one loss teams to play against the undefeated team. In even rarer years, we have to choose between a couple of one loss teams, or a more deserving two loss team.
It's not perfect, but it is a reasonable system that provides one critical benefit: the 13 weeks of regular season games are all virtual elimination games. There is no regular season like it in sports. A playoff would ruin it.
I will be listing chapter and verse of the negatives of forming a playoff in my blog over the next two months.
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Anthony 8 months ago
Lou,
I thought the point was to build life skills and friendships?
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Michael Devivero 8 months ago
FBS college football is very competitive right now. I consider it unlikely that 2 BCS conference teams will be undefeated at the end of the season.
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mike j 8 months ago
i would love to see tosu play usc agian i think with pryor and a healthy beanie this is a whole new team. and pryor will have that exteneded period of time to get ready for the game and improve his skills . i think the guy who posted this is just a fan of a bad school who would problably get destroyed by the bucks and hates to see them their. fact is they are better thatn 95% of college football teams and 100% when they are healthy and play their best. go buck
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Joe Plummer 8 months ago
Lisa,
Great article and discussion.
Re your point that you can't lose late; Last year LSU lost their last regular season game - at home and to an unranked team. Undeterred by actual on-field results, the pollsters, listening to the drumbeat of the media jumped them from 7 to 2. (Yeah I know they beat UT in the SECCG but that didn't warrant the jump). Didn't Bowden sob his way into a rematch against UF in the MNCG after losing to them in their last game a few years back? Hey, if the media wants your team in the game, they will find a way to get them there - W's and L's be damned.
I seriously believe the media/pollsters would prefer that there were no actual games to get in the way of who they've pre-determined to be the anointed ones. You can make virtually any argument in support of whoever you think is best - right up until they actually have to play. There are few common denominators in CFB from which to draw definitive conclusions (somebody in anearlier post actually made a case for the Big East by mentioning UWV's victory over UGA in the 2005 Sugar Bowl for godsake).
Any playoff system -no matter how flawed- trumps the BCS and all the BS surrounding it.
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Lisa Horne 8 months ago
Joe...are you sure it was the media that caused it? I just wrote an article about the polls, and you might be interested in reading it. Don't balme the media...blame partly lies in the coaches.
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Matthew Smith 8 months ago
Lisa, this is a great article and i have read a lot of your comments too a