These are the horses that I expect to go off somewhere near the odds Animal Kingdom went off in the Kentucky Derby. If you want more information on each horse, click on his name:
3. King Congie (20-1): The draw wasn't really that critical for King Congie. He wants to be mid-pack, and the three-path should help him save some ground. But with so few horses wanting to position themselves where he'll be anyway (Animal Kingdom is the only one who comes to mind), he was likely to avoid trouble until the far turn anyway.
6. Sway Away (18-1): With two speed horses just to his inside, Sway Away has a lot of room to cut over after the break. He should get a good position. My only fear is that he did try and run with the speed in the Arkansas Derby. With all that speed next to him, I do fear that he may do the same again.
1. Astrology (18-1): Great draw for Astrology. I suggested earlier in the week that Steven Asmussen could try running Astrology from off the pace. Getting the rail opens up every possibility for this rapidly-improving colt. He won't get caught wide on the first turn, and now if he isn't rank coming out of the gate, it's okay too. He becomes much more playable with the one gate because of the litany of options.
4. Flashpoint (15-1): Drawing just to the inside of Shackleford will create the possibility of a speed duel up front. Flashpoint has no chance to make the distance and is my pick to run last. Dialed In and Sway Away would love Flashpoint to push Shackleford to quick fractions.
7. Midnight Interlude (15-1): I didn't like him despite the hype in the Derby. There's no hype around Midnight Interlude and there shouldn't be. I'll pass on all the California horses.