Are We About To Witness The Demise of The BCS?

Donald FincherAnalyst IOctober 19, 2008

The first BCS standings came out today.  They show a very interesting situation brewing.  Texas is No. 1 and Oklahoma is No. 4.

The way Texas is playing (and has played on the largest of stages the last two weeks) tells me that not only will Texas be favored in all of their remaining games (including whichever opponent they would get in the Big 12 Championship Game) but that the games will most likely be over by halftime.

And Oklahoma will be favored in all of their games as well.  Oklahoma skips Missouri and has already played Texas and Kansas.  Nebraska and Texas A&M are down this year.  That means that by the time they get to the end of the season and hit their last remaining "tough" games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both of those teams will have sustained losses (from playing each other and from playing Texas), drops in their poll numbers, and key injuries (Oklahoma will have more depth).  So winning out for Oklahoma looks likely too.

For the sake of argument, let's assume they both win out which should leave Texas a solid No. 1.  Let's further assume that Alabama loses either to LSU or in the SEC championship game.  In fact, the way the Vols and Phil Fulmer are fighting for his job and playing at home and looking for revenge combined with the way Alabama seemed to run out of gas during the Ole Miss game this past week leaves that game up in the air as well.

Finally, if Ohio State plays anything remotely like they did last week at Michigan State, Penn State would not survive the first half that they had against Michigan.  So, for the sake of argument, let's assume that Penn State loses to Ohio State (their last real test and we'll know next week).

So, to recap, here are the scenarios...

Texas wins out, Oklahoma wins out, Alabama loses a game, Penn State loses a game.

As I've shown above, none of these scenarios by themselves are far-fetched.  So here's my question...

Would two teams from the same conference ending up No. 1 and No. 2 finally be enough to blow up the BCS?

And here's a follow up scenario and question...

Let's say these four teams do exactly as I scripted above and, in an effort to prevent the Texas/Oklahoma BCS blowup, there is obvious poll-voter fraud to ensure that this doesn't stand. 

Would the fact that the system could produce a No. 1 and No. 2 from the same conference be worse or would the fact that the system is able to be (and would have been) manipulated be worse?