UFC 131 Main Event: 5 Questions Heading into Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin

By now, word of Brock Lesnar's return bout with diverticulitis has surely reached any and all segments of the global population interested in receiving such news. And while it's certainly reasonable for fans to lament his absence and wish for his return to the Octagon, it is also a reasonable to push forward and look toward the new fight: Junior Dos Santos versus Shane Carwin.

Whether the new matchup is an upgrade over Lesnar-Dos Santos is obviously pure conjecture, the fact that it can even be a debate is encouraging. In examining the careers of these two heavy hitters, the fight seems almost too close to call. Here are five key questions that should help shape the discussion, not to mention the fight itself.

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5. Who wins the war within the (standup) war?

I’ll go ahead and address the most obvious point first.

Carwin is a Division II wrestling standout, and Dos Santos trains with jiu-jitsu venerables like Anderson Silva and the Nogueira brothers. And yet, no one seems to harbor any fear that this one will go to the ground. Heck, no one thinks either man is going to lift a foot off the mat. In a combined 10 UFC wins, nine came as a result of punches. Not kicks. Not elbows. Punches.

Even though both men are destroyers with their fists, there is still a clash of styles here. Dos Santos and his diamond-saw uppercuts roll like a finely tuned Humvee. In the other corner, Carwin and his anything-but-subtle hands are the bulldozer. Come to think of it, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Carwin bend at the elbow. But who needs the luxury of flexibility when you have Redwood trunks protruding from your body where most people have boring old hinge-jointed arms?

Bottom line: Dos Santos (though powerful) relies on speed and precision, while Carwin (though not unskilled) relies on power and more power. May the best man win.

4. Can they knock off the Octagon rust?

By the time UFC 131 rolls around, Carwin will have been out of action for nearly a full year as a result of neck surgery in November. Dos Santos isn’t much fresher, having gone 10 months between fights thanks to his coaching stint on The Ultimate Fighter.

Previously, the longest break in Dos Santos’s career was seven months. Carwin, on the other hand, has for various reasons been an MMA camel as of late; this will be only his fourth fight in the past 27 months.

In a sport where three months is the general time interval between engagements, it will be interesting to see how these long layoffs affect each combatant.

3. Will Dos Santos look for a decision?

Junior Dos Santos has said he will be looking for the knockout at UFC 131. But what else is he going to say?

Dos Santos’ speed and crispness potentially put him in a position, on paper at least, to outpoint Carwin. He has worked to a decision win before (albeit inadvertently), and it might make sense for him to try it again in this matchup, especially when the alternative is standing toe-to-toe with the monster.

2. Did Shane Carwin Utilize the Exercycle?

Photo credit: Cage Today

The simplicity of this point doesn’t undermine its importance. In 13 professional fights, Carwin has fought outside the first two minutes three times and the first round once.  In the only fight he had that went beyond five minutes, he gassed badly in taking his only loss to date.

Everyone knows Carwin must improve his cardio, especially if he hopes to hang with a young buck like Dos Santos. It’s just a matter of if, or can, he do it.

1. Carwin: Seizing the Moment, or Getting a Little Long in the Tooth?

Despite his short time in the sport (13 fights, only four in the Octagon), at 36 Carwin is no spring chicken. He has certainly been dominant to this point, and perhaps a commitment to the aforementioned cardio can grant him a longer shelf life, but if his age is anything more than a number, the 26-year-old Dos Santos will find out.

The flip side of this is that Carwin sees a finite window of opportunity, which perhaps bestows a sense of urgency to his career that a younger fighter simply wouldn't have. If his body cooperates, perhaps Carwin sees this as his last best moment to earn his way back to a title shot.