Picking a long-shot to win it all is the Derby Day dream for everyone watching this race. However, nailing down that one horse to turn pennies into fortunes is never an easy task.
For many, the Kentucky Derby is all about finding the diamond in the rough.
While the 2011 Kentucky Derby field is said to be the most wide-open in years, three horses (Dialed In, Nehro and Uncle Mo) are floating at the top of the odds list and the rest of field becomes a slightly riskier gamble.
Here is a list of five “long-shot” horses that are worth at least one spot on your betting ticket.
Two things should catch the eye of the optimistic gambler when looking at Twice the Appeal’s past performances.
First is his 420 Tomlinson Wet Track Rating. Rain is in the forecast and this horse is not only built to handle wet weather but has the experience in it. Second is that he has won two of his past three races.
A string of new trainers have most people concerned about how he will run the Kentucky Derby, pushing him way down to the bottom of the odds list.
While Twice the Appeal is a definitely a distant long-shot, people looking to strike it big with minimal cash might take their chances with him.
Since winning five straight races to polish of the 2010 year, Comma to the Top has struggled to find the winning circle in 2011.
Although Comma to the Top took an elongated break to start off the season, it appears that he is reaching his stride just in time for the Kentucky Derby.
His last race at the Santa Anita Derby was quite promising. Comma to the Top posted his highest Beyer rating ever (97), holding the lead for the majority of the race only to lose by a nose. If Comma to the Top can duplicate this effort, he could surprise the masses at Churchill.
As a 60-1 underdog in the Florida Derby, Shackleford ran the race of his career, earning a 93 Beyer Rating and falling just a nose shy to Dialed In.
Shackleford has slightly better odds entering the Kentucky Derby, but it will probably just as shocking if he finished this race in the top three.
Another performance just like the Florida Derby will be necessary, which isn’t completely out of the question. Shackleford has the second highest Tomlinson Rating in the field and this may be enough to sway bettors towards his line.
With rain threatening to compromise the conditions at Chruchill Downs this weekend, Soldat becomes a much more intriguing pick.
Soldat’s Tomlinson Wet Track rating (403) and wet track record (1-2-0 in 3 races) definitely deserves some acknowledgement with the weather forecast playing into his favor.
After a complete no-show at the Florida Derby in April, Soldat’s stock has drastically dropped amongst most critics.
However, Soladat’s highest Beyer rating (103) came in sloppy conditions, and if he can grab onto an early lead at Churchill, he may have the stamina to hold onto it to the end.
At 10-1, Archarcharch may not be a technical long-shot, but he isn’t exactly a favorite either.
In the Arkansas Derby last month, Archarcharch posted his highest Beyer rating ever (98) and narrowly beat out Nehro, who also broke late, down the stretch for the win.
Archarcharch is a steal at 10-1 and should gain much more support once race day approaches.