I feel the craziness going on in the financial markets is an excellent metaphor for what is happening with the Bulls. This sub-prime mess was caused by lenders not accurately understanding the true value of the loans they were giving out. The lenders thought the thousands they loaned out today would be millions in a few years. Turned out those thousands they loaned yesterday are probably worth zero in a lot of cases today.
Similarly, while GM John Paxson heads into the year he thought he had a team that could contend for the Eastern crown, turns out his team will probably miss the playoffs.
I got the inspiration for this column reading an article about one of the best GMs in sports: Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics. What separates Beane from the pack is his ability to get the most wins out of a limited payroll. Over most of this millennium he has competed with the Angels, Yankees, and Red Sox of the world, while spending millions less than they do.
"I got off the plane from the winter meetings, I said to David, `Who are we kidding?" Beane said. "We can't let hope be our strategy here. That's what we're doing...We can't waste another year. If this needs to be done, it needs to be done…
"Our status quo as we stood going into the season was mediocrity at best. That's my opinion. If anything we're taking a step back with the idea we have a chance to build something very good for a long time...The cost of indecision for us probably would be a bigger mistake."
The Bulls are in the same place as Beane's A's. They just do not have a roster capable of competing for a title in the current NBA. It is time to give up and rebuild. Trying to salvage a few years of making the playoffs would be a "bigger mistake."
To understand why I think it is time for the Bulls to give up on the majority of their current roster and start over, I will take a completely subjective look at the assets of all the teams in the NBA relative to the Bulls. The time frame will be from today through the next two NBA seasons. That is to say, I will divide the NBA's teams into three categories: better assets, same assets, and lesser assets. All of those categories will be relative to the Bulls. For example, the Boston Celtics are in the first category: better assets than the Bulls. That means I think the Boston Celtics have better assets today and they will continue to have better assets until the 2010-11 season.
Any teams in the 'better assets' category have a superior chance of winning the NBA title than the Bulls for the defined time period. Teams with lesser assets have less of a chance for the title than Chicago.
OK, that probably made no sense, but here I go:
Better Assets than Chicago:
ATLANTIC
Boston - KG, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo will be a top five point guard within two years
Toronto - Bosh and Bargnani are both better than any Bulls players.
CENTRAL
Detroit - Will probably win the East this year…something the Bulls were supposed to do.
Cleveland - LeBron James
SOUTHEAST
Orlando - Dwight Howard
Atlanta - Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford form a better nucleus and are already winning more.
Miami - Dwayne Wade
NORTHWEST
Portland - They are already better than the Bulls WITHOUT the 2007 #1 overall pick.
Denver - Carmelo Anthony
Utah - Nearly won the West last year.
Seattle - Kevan Durant.
- B/R Ticket Guide
PACIFIC
Phoenix - Could win it all this year.
LA Lakers - Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum = ironic Shaq and Kobe of years past.
Golden State - Playing better today, and that's without a mature Andris Biedrins or Brandin Wright.
SOUTHWEST
Dallas - 67 wins last year.
San Antonio - You know why.
New Orleans - Chris Paul
Houston - Yao
Memphis - There's a reason the Bulls are rumored to be giving up a lot of their roster for Pau Gasol, and they also have Rudy Gay and Mike Conley.
Same Level of Assets:
ATLANTIC
Philadelphia
CENTRAL
Indiana
Milwaukee
SOUTHEAST
Washington
Charlotte
PACIFIC
Sacramento
LA Clippers
Lesser Assets
ATLANTIC
New Jersey
New York
NORTHWEST
Minnesota
I acknowledge that my prior categorization was highly subjective, extremely difficult to prove, and very easy to argue. Nevertheless, I feel the categories are fair overall and at the end of the day most fans would have to agree the Bulls rank at BEST in the middle of the pack.
There are enough better teams in the East by any standard, and I would almost trade the Bulls roster for any Western team, save Minnesota. That may be going a little too far, but not far too far.
For a slightly less subjective method of comparing what assets the Bulls possess, I borrowed a financial statistic used to evaluate stocks: ROA. Return on Assets measures "how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings." The math is:
ROA = (Net Income) / (Total Assets)
This number essentially tells you what money a company generates from their company. For the purposes of the NBA, I have slightly altered the stat. The acronym will remain the same, but the math is slightly different:
ROA = (Wins) / (Payroll)
This number will tell fans how many wins a team gets for the money they invest in their players. While no one statistic is good enough to explain anything completely, I feel this number is a quick and dirty way to get a good idea of what NBA teams get for the money they pay. Below is a list of every team in the NBA's ROA.
As a quick note, the NBA's luxury tax this season is set at: 67.85 million.
| Team | Wins | Payroll (in millions) | ROA* | Rank |
| Detroit | 27 | 65 | 42% | 1 |
| Orlando | 23 | 58 | 40% | 2 |
| Boston | 29 | 74 | 39% | 3 |
| New Orleans | 23 | 63 | 37% | 4 |
| Phoenix | 25 | 71 | 35% | 5 |
| Utah | 20 | 59 | 34% | 6 |
| LA Lakers | 23 | 68 | 34% | 7 |
| San Antonio | 23 | 69 | 33% | 8 |
| Golden St. | 20 | 65 | 31% | 9 |
| Portland | 22 | 73 | 30% | 10 |
| Atlanta | 16 | 54 | 30% | 11 |
| Toronto | 18 | 62 | 29% | 12 |
| Denver | 21 | 79 | 27% | 13 |
| New Jersey | 18 | 68 | 26% | 14 |
| Houston | 19 | 73 | 26% | 15 |
| Dallas | 24 | 93 | 26% | 16 |
| Washington | 17 | 67 | 25% | 17 |
| Charlotte | 13 | 52 | 25% | 18 |
| Indiana | 16 | 66 | 24% | 19 |
| Milwaukee | 15 | 62 | 24% | 20 |
| Cleveland | 18 | 76 | 24% | 21 |
| Sacramento | 14 | 63 | 22% | 22 |
| Chicago | 13 | 63 | 21% | 23 |
| Philadelphia | 14 | 71 | 20% | 24 |
| Memphis | 10 | 55 | 18% | 25 |
| LA Clippers | 10 | 64 | 16% | 26 |
| Seattle | 9 | 63 | 14% | 27 |
| Miami | 8 | 72 | 11% | 28 |
| New York | 9 | 88 | 10% | 29 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 68 | 7% | 30 |
Even if you do feel the Bulls have underachieved this season (which I do, certainly) this is still an extremely discouraging stat. Despite having a payroll only $4 million away from the luxury tax, the Bulls have the 23rd-worst ROA.
For each million the Bulls spend on payroll, 22 NBA teams get more wins out of the same one million spent.
Given that they are not going to have much money to spend on free agents—especially if Paxson intends to keep the current core intact by resigning Gordon and Deng—bringing in a top-level star with a new contract simply will not happen. Furthermore, since the Bulls are just good enough to stay in the playoff hunt and maybe get the 6-8 seed or finish a few games out, they will not get a game-changing draft pick in the foreseeable future.
Basically, unless trades are made, the roster you see today is the roster you will see in the future.
While it pains me to say this…I'm sorry Mr. Reinsdorf, but that simply will not cut it.
Trades need to be made, and NOW. The longer the Bulls' current parts stay together, the worse it will get. Jim Boylan is not the answer. A puppet coach controlled by GM John Paxson is not the answer. It is beyond the time when fans can acceptably sit back and wait for Hinrich and Wallace to "get better."
So, what to do? Trade everyone, save: Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah. Aaron Gray and Duhon can stay, because they barely make anything and are worth more than their salaries. Gordon could stay, though he is less of a priority than the first three.
Everyone else? Dump 'em. Move them right now. Maybe a Ben Wallace trade to the LA Lakers for Kwame Brown's expiring contract? How about Hinrich to the Heat for Jason Williams and Ricky Davis? Both of their deals come off the cap next year.
I realize it will be difficult to move players into whom Paxson has put so much faith and effort. The hardest thing for anyone to do is admit they have made the wrong choices in the past, realize it is time to cut their losses, and move in a different direction.
The only thing harder is continuing down that wrong path.
The Bulls still have the quality to get a lot of high draft picks and talent back in trades. Combine that with the cap room they could acquire to use wisely on free agents, and within two or three years the Bulls could have a young championship contender in the works.
Ultimately, I think the best thing you can do when building a team is wait to start spending money until you have that one star: the Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan-type player. Once you have that, building the rest of the team is not so hard.
Luol Deng is not and never will be that guy. He could one day become a Scottie Pippen or Dennis Rodman type—the second- or third-best player on a championship team. But becoming a Finals-winning MVP is just not in the cards for Luol.
Until you get a player like that, however, it's important to stay flexible enough that acquisition of such a player is possible. That means having high draft picks and lots of cap room. The Bulls needed to be moving that direction yesterday.
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Écrit près Charlie Danoff
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10 months ago
Signing Ben Wallace at the time made sense because they were cunts inside on defense... only problem is, now they have NO MONEY for a low post SCORER...
so all these cunts like Hinrich and Chris Du-men just shoot jumpers and 3s all fuckin game.. I would love to play guard for the Bulls.. you never have to pass, you can just fire away at will and hope Ben Wallace gets the offensive board, kicks it back to you, and then you can shoot again
Good thing they drafted fuckin Joke-im Noah with that 9th pick.. cuz that'll help out A LOT... fuckin dumb cunts
10 months ago
Mr. Ryne Sandberg's Whores,
Your subtle, eloquent and delicate use of the English language leaves me in envy. While I agree with you that signing Wallace was silly, and that the Bulls guards are not playing up to their ability, I have to say your thinly veiled sarcastic praise of Mr. Noah is unwarranted. At the 9th overall spot he was by far the best value. He will have a long NBA career, and will likely go down as one of the better 9th overall picks in lottery history.
Thanks for reading & responding & keep up the intellectual discussion. After all, argument is the lifeblood of any democracy.
10 months ago
Dude that was pretty funny.
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