Jon Lester is the best starting pitcher in the American League Championship Series. Jonathan Papelbon is the best closer. And the Red Sox are going to lose, anyway.
First off, Lester isn't pitching until Game three, a decision that gives the Red Sox's top three starters maximum rest, but raises the possibility that the Sox can lose in six games while pitching Lester only once.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Lester will start Games one, two, and three, then five, six, and seven, respectively, if necessary. The Sox's rationale is that if they lead three games to two, they will need to win only one game—Beckett's or Lester's. If they're down three to two, they will need to win both.
Fair enough, and Lester already has thrown 224 1/3 innings, including his two starts in the Division Series, an increase of more than 60 innings over last season. Here's the problem: The Red Sox could be down two games to none before he ever throws a pitch. The Sox were 1-8 at Tropicana Field this season, in part because their hitters do not see the ball well at the Rays' home park.
That's right, the Trop not only is an advantage to the Rays offensively, enabling them to use their speed on the artificial turf, but also provides an edge to their pitchers. The park is not well-lit and some visiting hitters find it difficult to get accustomed to the hitting background, one rival executive says.
The numbers bear out the perceived discrepancy: The Rays had a 3.30 ERA at home and a 4.34 ERA on the road in the regular season—the fifth-largest differential in the majors, according to STATS LLC. The Sox's batting average/on-base/slugging line at the Trop was .216/.303/.365, compared with .280/.358/.447 overall.
Pitching Beckett and Lester on normal rest in Games one and two might have been one way to negate the Rays' edge. Beckett, following a 12-day layoff due to an oblique strain, struggled in his Division Series start against the Angels, throwing 106 pitches in five innings. However, plate umpire Kerwin Danley had a small strike zone and Beckett's velocity was good. Don't be surprised if Beckett is closer to his old form in his next start.
Matsuzaka in Game one, though, could be a problem. In each of his two starts at the Trop this season, Matsuzaka lasted only five innings, albeit while posting a 1.80 ERA. The Rays, fourth in the AL in pitches per plate appearance, figure to chase him early again.
One other thing: Matsuzaka is susceptible to the Rays' running game, and so is Tim Wakefield in Game four. The Rays led the majors with 142 stolen bases in the regular season, then added seven more in their four-game triumph over the White Sox in the Division Series. Matsuzaka and Wakefield are easy to run on. Paul Byrd, the pitcher the Sox bypassed for Game four, is not.
OK, that's the pessimistic view of the Sox's chances. If Beckett is the Beckett of old, the Sox will do no worse than a split in Tampa, with Lester going in Game three. The feeling around baseball right now is that Lester is all but invincible. If the Sox win both his starts, all they must do is prevail in two of the five other games.
1 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
cody grubbs 9 months ago
you can't argue with the fact Dice-K has been great on the road where it starts, and if Beckett looks like the Beckett of former post seasons than the rays could easily be in a 0-2 rut just as likely as the redsox. and lester is most efficient at fen way where he has a 2.49 ERA. I wouldn't count the redsox out of it at all and if they can get dice-k to work his breaking balls and slider he won't need to strike out batters which can take alot of pitches out of your arm. the rays I'm sorry to say this are probably going to lose. but I'm still going to say game one is going to be close Dice-k 2.37 on road and shields 2.59 at home.
game two risky guess but Beckett 62/3 innings and kazmir is going to get rocked for about five runs before being pulled. lester will pitch game 3 in supreme control and win mvp and wake field loses probably and dice k or Byrd finish off the series. any takers want to argue with my logic
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