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Game Preview This game is far more critical for Florida at this juncture of the season than it is for LSU. The unexpected loss to Ole Miss has made it so another conference loss prevents the Gators from controlling their own destiny in the East...

Creature Vs. Creature: A Gator on Florida-LSU

by David Wunderlich (Senior Writer)

13

721 reads

Preview/Prediction

October 09, 2008


Game Preview

This game is far more critical for Florida at this juncture of the season than it is for LSU. The unexpected loss to Ole Miss has made it so another conference loss prevents the Gators from controlling their own destiny in the East.

Granted, Vandy won’t run the table, and a loss for the Commodores will give UF that control back even with a loss to LSU, but the margin for error becomes razor thin with a defeat on Saturday.

It could have some significance in the court of public opinion as well. Some people, including Sports Illustrated’s Stewart Mandel, have begun beating the “Urban Meyer’s shine is wearing off” drum. A win here would definitely help boost his image, even though it shouldn’t need it after producing a national championship and a Heisman winner in his first three years.

LSU, on the other hand, has very little to lose in my opinion. A loss only jeopardizes the Tigers’ national title chances, and given how seldom teams win two in a row, a repeat was always doubtful in my mind.

A loss on the road at night with a freshman starting quarterback falls squarely in the “understandable” category, and even then, running the table from here would keep LSU right in the race for the crystal football.

The one catch is that LSU hasn’t looked all that great so far. The blowouts over Appalachian State and North Texas were nice. However, they needed a dramatic comeback to beat Auburn, something that sounds less appetizing every day now.

The win over Mississippi State was not overly impressive either, given that the Bulldogs scored 24 on them, whereas they didn’t manage a single point against those same Auburn Tigers.

 

Florida will win if...

The Gators play “Florida football.”

I put that in quotes because I mean it how Meyer defines it: winning the field position battle, playing great on special teams, and beating the other guy on the lines. Outside of the Ole Miss game, Florida has done well with the first two. The third part has been more troublesome.

The offensive line has been hit hard by injuries at left guard, which has thrown off the play of senior left tackle Phil Trautwein too. It also had some shuffling going on before the season. Sophomore center Maurkice Pouncey was a guard last year, and his twin brother Mike, the starting right guard, was an emergency defensive lineman after practicing at center for most of the year.

The defensive line has been better than last year, though it’s hard to be worse, but it has not been consistent with getting pressure.

It’s unlikely the offense will click back into “destroy” mode, as it had been in 2007, against LSU’s defense, so the special teams will have to have another great game. Brandon James will be the man of interest in that respect, and he will help with the field position battle too.

Punter Chas Henry has been quietly outstanding as well, so the same thing applies. Kicker Jonathan Phillips has been perfect on field goals so far, but don’t expect him to be attempting anything beyond 40-43 yards.

 

Florida will lose if...

They can’t stop the run.

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13 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. Nick The Only 9 months ago

    Great analysis. Two comments:

    (1) Phillips has not been perfect. His blocked XP cost Florida the Ole Miss game just as much as the other mistakes.

    (2) Meyer needs to run Moore and/or Tebow early and up the middle. He needs to get LSU thinking that they need to crash the line. Once LSU is putting more men in the box and looking for the run, then he can utilize play action more effectively. Also, running tough in the middle opens up the edges for the speed backs.

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    • David Wunderlich 9 months ago

      I meant perfect on field goals, and the blocked PAT was not his fault. And as for running up the middle, it's been a part of the early game plan every time so far. I would expect to see it again, though I fear it involves more Rainey than Moore or Tebow. I can see a bit of Harvin up the middle early too, since his added bulk this year allows him to do that.

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    • Lou Vozza 9 months ago

      No, I do think the PAT was probably Phillips fault. The kick was too low. The blocker didn't penetrate the line, he leapt in the air. Maybe it was a bad snap, or placement , but I don't think so.

      I don't want to knock Phillips though. He has been solid. That game should have never been that close to come down to the PAT.

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    • Micah Green 9 months ago

      He needs to run Cam Newton. He is recovered from the ankle and he is nasty.

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    • David Wunderlich 9 months ago

      The guy who blocked it jumped over a cut-blocking offensive lineman, then barely hopped as h blocked it with plenty of arm to spare. It was never going through no matter how it was kicked.

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  2. Tim Pollock 9 months ago

    Good stuff. Should be a great game.

    Mandel definitely needs to watch more SEC football. Some of his comments were just flat out wrong.

    Gators have had good success stopping the run in recent years; this game might mirror the Miami game from a few weeks back, although I doubt Les Miles will be as conservative as Shannon's staff was.

    Picking Moore as the X-factor is interesting. Like you said, Meyer could play the kid for a total of 6 snaps the whole game. With Moody out, you have to wonder if Meyer will lean too heavily on Tebow up the gut.

    It would be crazy to see the Gators lose two home games in a row, especially considering Meyer's ridiculous amount of success at home.

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    • David Wunderlich 9 months ago

      Mandel's comment about "where was Moody?" was particularly funny. Everyone else knows where he was, Stew; he was in the locker room with an injured ankle.

      Stopping the run has been good in recent years, except when they go up against a really good back. Hester lead LSU on the way to 247 rushing yards on them last year, Moreno lead Georgia on the way to 196 rushing yards on them last year, and Michael Smith gashed them for 137 yards himself last week.

      Two home losses in a row would be very surprising, you're right.

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  3. Trey Jones 9 months ago

    My sacrifice to the great Gator Altar is this...

    I am not watching the game... instead I plan on helping my parents box stuff up, I will take my wife for a bike ride, I will update my calendar with everybody's birthdays, and I will make my Valentine's day dinner reservation...

    I am sure these good deeds will ensure a Gator victory!

    If not, then I saved myself from 4 hours of angst and frustration.

    GO GATORS!!!

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  4. BabyTate 9 months ago

    Another outstanding article from an exceptional analyst and writer.

    You and Justin have an excellent idea here, great work.

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  5. Gabe Le Bleu 9 months ago

    Found this article linked to Justin Goar's article on the same game. Great work!

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  6. Mark Torosian 9 months ago

    Great article bro, Florida exploits Lsu's weakness of passing and wins. UF 23 Lsu 10

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  7. Kevin Paul 9 months ago

    Good read - I'm really hoping this game lives up to the hype. Honestly, looking at the list of games on this weekend, there should be a lot of entertaining football to come.
    Many will call this one a tossup, though the Gators are favored by 6 being at home - but I imagine you knew that already.

    Any news on Harvin and whether he is playing now? I haven't checked recently to be honest. He's one of the big keys to the game... one extra headache that LSU would have to deal with.

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