Game Preview
This game is far more critical for Florida at this juncture of the season than it is for LSU. The unexpected loss to Ole Miss has made it so another conference loss prevents the Gators from controlling their own destiny in the East.
Granted, Vandy won’t run the table, and a loss for the Commodores will give UF that control back even with a loss to LSU, but the margin for error becomes razor thin with a defeat on Saturday.
It could have some significance in the court of public opinion as well. Some people, including Sports Illustrated’s Stewart Mandel, have begun beating the “Urban Meyer’s shine is wearing off” drum. A win here would definitely help boost his image, even though it shouldn’t need it after producing a national championship and a Heisman winner in his first three years.
LSU, on the other hand, has very little to lose in my opinion. A loss only jeopardizes the Tigers’ national title chances, and given how seldom teams win two in a row, a repeat was always doubtful in my mind.
A loss on the road at night with a freshman starting quarterback falls squarely in the “understandable” category, and even then, running the table from here would keep LSU right in the race for the crystal football.
The one catch is that LSU hasn’t looked all that great so far. The blowouts over Appalachian State and North Texas were nice. However, they needed a dramatic comeback to beat Auburn, something that sounds less appetizing every day now.
The win over Mississippi State was not overly impressive either, given that the Bulldogs scored 24 on them, whereas they didn’t manage a single point against those same Auburn Tigers.
Florida will win if...
The Gators play “Florida football.”
I put that in quotes because I mean it how Meyer defines it: winning the field position battle, playing great on special teams, and beating the other guy on the lines. Outside of the Ole Miss game, Florida has done well with the first two. The third part has been more troublesome.
The offensive line has been hit hard by injuries at left guard, which has thrown off the play of senior left tackle Phil Trautwein too. It also had some shuffling going on before the season. Sophomore center Maurkice Pouncey was a guard last year, and his twin brother Mike, the starting right guard, was an emergency defensive lineman after practicing at center for most of the year.
The defensive line has been better than last year, though it’s hard to be worse, but it has not been consistent with getting pressure.
It’s unlikely the offense will click back into “destroy” mode, as it had been in 2007, against LSU’s defense, so the special teams will have to have another great game. Brandon James will be the man of interest in that respect, and he will help with the field position battle too.
Punter Chas Henry has been quietly outstanding as well, so the same thing applies. Kicker Jonathan Phillips has been perfect on field goals so far, but don’t expect him to be attempting anything beyond 40-43 yards.
Florida will lose if...
They can’t stop the run.
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