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This is probably my favorite tournament of the year.
Yes, even ahead of the Masters—although Augusta is only behind by a little bit.
What makes this tournament so great is the opportunity for any golfer to qualify and play, with probably some of the toughest conditions on course that the players see all year.
We all know Tiger has won majors, and he has three US Open trophies—as many as he does Open Championship Claret Jugs.
The theme that rings true between Tiger Woods and majors is consistency.
His worst finish at the US Open was an MC in 2006, when Woods was struggling with the death of his father.
Other than that, a T82 in 1996. Only top 20 finishes have followed since.
In the past five US Opens, where Tiger made the cut, he has two runner-up finishes, a T4, T6 and a win.
All of that seems to point Tiger's way.
If you're wondering how Tiger has done other than in those years, the full rundown is as follows: WD (1995), T82 (1996), T19 (1997), T18 (1998), T3 (1999), win (2000, 2002, 2008), T12 (2001) T20 (2003), T17 (2004), 2 (2005), CUT (2006), T2 (2007), T6 (2009), T4 (2010).
Considering he has pretty much every single part of the top five except for fifth, Tiger's chances at the US Open are extremely high.
The ideal situation would be a dominant US Open for Woods, to break through with his first win.
The worst possible situation would be another missed cut, especially at a tournament where Woods is always on the leaderboard.
I have this as Woods' most likely first victory of the 2011 season. The wait will be over on June 19, at Congressional Country Club.
Odds of Woods winning are 6-1. His own successes and the lack of success of other, experienced players (Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson) combine for Woods to be the favorite for the US Open, barring any horrid play down the line.