The enemy of any football season is apathy, and the danger with the Tennessee program is that one season's misfortune (or several seasons', to hear some of the Fulmer haters tell it) could bleed into the entire program.
If some Vol fans have already given up on this season and this coach, what guarantees their same passionate return (and their same passionate dollars) for the next season, no matter who the coach is?
This thought process reveals itself in a common thread that's emerged in the words of AD Mike Hamilton between Fulmer's current situation and the downfall of Buzz Peterson as men's basketball coach in 2004: concession sales.
Though Roy Williams joked that Peterson was fired because we weren't selling enough popcorn, apparently it's a real enough concern in the minds of those who matter, because it's popped up in the last two articles I've read in the Knoxville News-Sentinel that have contained quotes from Hamilton.
But beyond bottled water, stadium dogs, and dwindling attendance...the overall outlook on Fulmer and the Vols right now is ugly no matter how you slice it.
Fulmer probably saved his job last year in dramatic fashion a number of times, as the only thing that made up for losing at Cal and losing to your two biggest rivals 59-20 and 41-17 was winning the SEC East.
It would've been a lot more interesting had Arian Foster's final drive fumble against South Carolina not been recovered by the Vols, or if Vanderbilt's final field goal hadn't bounced off the upright, or if Kentucky had found a way in any of those four overtimes to put the Vols away.
But Tennessee won each of those games, won the division, and Fulmer was rewarded with a contract extension and a fancy new guarantee that we all took passing note of over the summer, but that now has become incredibly relevant:
Eight wins in the regular season guarantees a new extension.
For this reason, first and foremost, perhaps we should pump the brakes on the fan-driven search for a new head coach.
Not because the voices of the masses that scream for a new leader are necessarily all wrong—but because that's what the contract says.
Eight wins = another year.
The Vols are currently 2-3. The remaining schedule includes Saturday's test at No. 10 Georgia, followed by home dates with Mississippi State and No. 2 Alabama, a trip to South Carolina, a homecoming affair with Wyoming, a suddenly interesting trip to Nashville to play Vanderbilt, and the season finale in Knoxville against Kentucky.
If Tennessee navigates those seven games with only one loss, the Vols will be 8-4. And Fulmer's contract will call for an extension. Those are the facts.
When Mike Hamilton and Phil Fulmer sat down to work on that contract, I think the assumption we all shared was that Hamilton wanted to send the message that Fulmer would be the man until he retired, and Fulmer in turn gave Hamilton some sort of timetable on how long that would be.
They cited recruiting as a key incentive so kids would know that Fulmer would be the man in Knoxville and could quiet the voices of other coaching staffs in the SEC that were telling the same kids otherwise.
Today, those voices have never been louder, and they're coming from almost every corner.
28 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Tim Pollock 9 months ago
Good read.
I don't think I'm the only who thinks 8 wins for this team is completely out of the question. We are at the midway point of the season, and Tenn barely pulled out a home win vs. NIU. There simply isn't time to "regroup." The party is over, and Tenn will be lucky to go to a bowl.
That said, I just can't imagine Fulmer coming back next season. For Vol fans, I hope that is the case. From a fan of the SEC East, I hope he stays...forever.
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Nic Gulas 9 months ago
Wow, Will, that is a lot in there to say about Fulmer and his job.
I think the one thing that has to be asked is do Tennessee fans think Fulmer's job is WORTH saving? Like you said, 8-4 and he is saved, so it can be saved, but will Tennessee fans put up with 8-4 season after 8-4 season, which could drop to 8-5 with the subsequent bowl games? I thought the 8 win plateau was ridiculous for an extension at a program like Tennessee, but we will see how the Vols finish the season.
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
I don't know of anyone who thought the eight win deal was good in any way when it happened, and now even more so. Hamilton said he was going based off of Tennessee's all-time winning percentage, which amounts for about eight wins per year on average.
But Fulmer's winning percentage amounts to nine per year on average, so right off the bat you're rewarding someone for performing below their own standards. And even if it was nine wins per year, people would've been uneasy. At the time it was the best way to try and ensure his place here for recruiting and his "legacy"...now it's totally turned around. And Tony Franklin getting fired today when Auburn's 4-2 and ranked and the Vols are 2-3 and equally inept on offense will only make things tighter.
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Jay Schrimpf 9 months ago
Good read............now consider a couple of things.
1) Who gave Tennessee their last national title?
2) When was the last time Tennessee won the division?
3) Did Tennessee lose the SEC title game to the eventual national champion?
NOW hold on... because you are not going to like this, but it is fact. the SEC is down this year and the 3rd or even 4th best conference in the land this year. Certainly LSU and Alabama are the cream of the crop............but without them.... there is just an overhyped Florida and over ranked Georgia team. The point being, the Vols are still in the thick of things.
Do you really think Vandy is going to keep things going? Certainly Georgia or Florida will beat them if not both. And let's say the Vols beat them, that would give Vandy 2 losses. In head to head conference, that would give UT the edge if the Vols win out.
Now let us look at Georgia. Who have the dawgs beat? Who have they beat that makes you think Tennessee can not beat them. Need some help? Wofford had more total yards of offense than Georgia could muster against South Carolina. Only two turnovers in the red-zone could save the dawgs against South Carolina.
Florida, while they have already won against you................did so with some luck. 2 TO inside the 5. a punt return for a TD and a long KOR to set up another score. The stats leaned to UT in this one. Just not the score.
Miss. State is a win............
South Carolina should be a win.........
Alabama...........well that will be tough. So you are going to need some help from the West with some of the teams that have the jump on you. Ole Miss has already helped you with Florida.
I suppose the point is this.................... I am not sure you hang a guy, who won the SEC EAST last year, has a national title to his credit, won his bowl game last year and recruits well. I am not sure exactly what you want. Unless you are Alabama, and occasionally make up national championship wins, those are hard to come by. You have a good program, that wins, goes to bowls, wins divisional titles and have great attendance. Who do Tennessee fans want?
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Tim Pollock 9 months ago
Jay:
1.) It was nearly a decade ago
2.) When was the last time they won the conference?
3.) Who cares? They lost
I love you you rattle off all these wins over SEC teams. Did you happen to see the Tenn-NIU game last week?
I think Tennessee fans want a winning record. This could very well be the second time in 4 years they don't get that.
3rd or 4th best conference? After the Big 12, who else is better?
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
I love the optimism, and I also know that you never fully appreciate what you have until it's gone (see: Ainge, Erik). And Fulmer remains at the top of coaches with 10+ years experience in terms of winning percentage.
But there's a time for everyone to step aside, and all signs point to Fulmer's clock winding down.
Everything has to be taken a week at a time - which means both dealing only with Georgia, and also not making decisions about your head football coach until the season is over. I'm never in favor of making a move in mid-season.
I don't want to hang Fulmer at all...I just think the cry for something new from Vol fans has gotten too loud to be stifled. But stranger things have happened.
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Brian Hood 9 months ago
I've heard from many fans of other SEC teams say they hope we keep Fulmer because it helps their chances. That bugs the hell out of me but I agree. I just get the feeling that if the Vols go at least 6-6, Fulmer is staying. I don't see Fulmer resigning and I haven't noticed Hamilton flinch in his complete defense for his football coach. 5-7 would do it in my opinion, the losing record and no bowl game is such a huge difference than 6-6. By the way, Jimmy Hyams said on his talk show he researched the win total roll-over extension and Les Miles also gets a year extension, if he goes 7-5. But he's been much more successful recently. I'm one of the ones who's at the point of no return. But I guess I'm not apathetic because I'm writing on here...
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
Completely agree about the stupidity of other SEC fans saying they hope we keep Fulmer - if you're Florida you could say that, but among the other teams we play every year? The guy completely changed the face of the Alabama rivalry, whipped Georgia his first seven years on the job and has done it again three of the last four, is 14-1 against South Carolina, 14-1 against Vanderbilt and 15-0 against Kentucky. "Vanderbilt fans are making fun of Tennessee!" Yawn...excuse me if I don't sweat bandwagon comments from a team that's beaten us one time in the last three decades.
Like I said, I wish he'd announce that next year will be his last, because he deserves better than this...and I do think IF the Vols win Saturday it could put us on the right track and he could save face again. But it's a week to week job right now, it seems.
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Jay Schrimpf 9 months ago
Tim,
how many national titles does your team have? I think one every 15 years would do.
Tim,
did UT win or lose last week?
Tim,
no shame in losing to the national champion.................none
Losing record?????????????? The Vols went 5-6 in 2005. One has to go all the way back to 1988 to find when the Vols had another losing record............5-6 again.
Just because a conference has wonderful venues does not mean the conference is the best. In 2007 and in 2006 the SEC had the best conference. But not in 2005 or 2004.
This year, I think the SEC is behind the Big 12 and Big 10. The Big 10 has some VERY good teams this year. Penn State, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Even Nothwestern is having a wonderful year.
Elminated emotion for the equation and step back. The SEC is not as strong as it has been the last three years. If Vandy is leading one of your divisions, this is evidence enough.............VERY similar to Wake and the ACC. On the other side of the division you have Arkansas and Miss. State. They are two of the biggest jokes in football this year. Ole Miss has not won more than 4 games in a season since 2003! And they go and knock off Florida in the Swamp.................
The SEC is a great conference because of the venues. Only Big 10 schools can argue they have better venues. I am a SEC and ACC fan. But this year........THUS far, the SEC is not what is was last two years.
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Tim Pollock 9 months ago
But Will it's what have you done for me lately.
Fulmer's numbers may look good against those teams, but recruits and fans don't care about that if the team goes 6-6 or 5-7 and only wins 1-2 East games, which is a possibility this year.
Seems contradictory to say its stupidity from fans of other schools to want Fulmer around, but then you yourself want the guy gone.
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
Oh I agree totally that recruits and UT fans don't care about any of that, and yeah, I think it's just best for all involved if he says he's going to step down after next year.
I just have a hard time when I hear Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt fans say that line about "I hope he sticks around", which I've heard from all three in various places in the last week. You hope a coach sticks around that's totally dominated your program? That's piling on for free on somebody else's work.
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Tim Pollock 9 months ago
Hmm...a lot of SEC fans now say that about Spurrier as well. I don't buy it for one second, especially not from GA fans (much like you).
Both Fulmer and Spurrier are capable of springing upsets on anyone.
Who is your ideal replacement, out of curiosity?
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
Will Muschamp is getting a lot of love around the Vol Blogosphere...he'd be interesting, I'll say that.
If the Vols go back inside the family, I'd take Lovie Smith in a heartbeat if he was available and interested. Outside the program...I really like Jim Grobe. He's Bobby Johnson without the "ha ha, you hired Vanderbilt's coach!" jokes. Neither of them are sexy hires, but I think they'd be efficient. If you want to make a splash, maybe Butch Davis, but I'm not sure he'd leave Chapel Hill.
If/when it gets to that point, I think people underestimate the Bruce Pearl effect. Pearl's instant success is the exception, not the rule - it hurt Dave Clawson (though his on field product does plenty on its own), and it'll hurt whoever comes in here next if they don't win a championship right away.
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Jay Schrimpf 9 months ago
Will..............when the Vols stunn Georgia, get back with me. UT is a DANGEROUS team. A lot of talent and coaches that did not forget how to coach.
UT had a punt blocked or they would have beaten UCLA
UT fumbled in the endzone or they would have beaten Auburn
I do not have to remind you about the Florida game.......
UT is still a good team and the defending SEC East champs. There are MANY teams that would take Fulmer and his winning percentage with no reservations. I could see him coaching at Clemson or perhpas Auburn as things appear grim for those coaches. Perhaps even at South Carolina if he sits out a year as Spurrier has a losing conference record in his 4th year there.
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Tim Pollock 9 months ago
"when the Vols stun Georgia..."
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Jay Schrimpf 9 months ago
Brian,
if you were the AD.............would you pull the trigger knowing that if he replacement comes in and does not win the division in the next two years..........YOU, as the AD will lose your job? And if you as the AD, pull the trigger, who would you hire?
just wondering.........makes good convo.
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Brian Hood 9 months ago
You can't make decisions out of fear. The program is clearly going downhill, you can't just sit by the wayside and watch it plummet. Hamilton made a great move in getting Bruce Pearl. I believe this program needs a shot of freshness and enthusiasm just like what Pearl brought. As for the candidate whom I would look for in replacing...I wrote an article the other day naming 15 candidates, take a look. I really like Brian Kelly out of Cincinnati as well as Chris Peterson and if we could pull him away from N. Carolina..Butch Davis.
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john brewer 9 months ago
face it ut fans. it was cutcliffe all along.............
better question...........
when is the last time ut had a winning record and cutcliffe wasn't there?............
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
2004, when they won the SEC East, which they did twice without him...the Vols had their best team of this decade without Cutcliffe (2001). That's an easy assumption to make in times like this, but while it's true that Cutcliffe is certainly the best of Fulmer's three offensive coordinators in his tenure, he wasn't the primary or sole reason for the Vols' success.
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Michael Oleszek 9 months ago
Great article. You're one of the more rational Vols fans I have come across. POTD.
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Evan Wiley 9 months ago
that pic is great...it looks like he's seig heiling the ref
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Trey Jones 9 months ago
There's no doubt that Fulmer has done a hell of a good job in Knoxville. I'm a Gator fan and I love the rivalry... the early season match-up between these two teams is the best week 3 or 4 game in the nation. Clearly he has been one of the most successful coaches in America over the last 10-15 years.
But time is the enemy of most successful coaches... Spurrier left Florida immediately after winning an SEC championship and earning a number 3 national ranking... I was really bummed when I heard the news that The Ol' Ball Coach was heading to the NFL but looking back on it he saved UF from possibly having to eventually deal with a very popular/accomplished head coach that has lost his spark.
When asked why he chose to leave Florida Spurrier replied, "every win was a relief and each lost was a disaster... I didn't enjoy it anymore..." (paraphrased). Looking at Big Phil's face on the sidelines this season makes me think he feels the same.
I know Papa Joe has turned things around at Penn State (uh... don't pay attention to that man behind the curtain...), but he, Bowden, Fulmer and several others seem as if the attributes that made them successful earlier in their careers have gone missing.
In all honesty, I think Fulmer should step aside at the conclusion of this season. He could take a year or two off (wear an ESPN jacket for a season) and then join a program in need of a successful, established, and experienced head coach. I personally would love to see him lead a Wyoming or a Furman or a NM State to conference championships or wins over former rivals. If anything, he could be an example to other coaches on how best to rediscover the true enjoyment in his profession... the enjoyment that quickly gets snuffed out in the pressure cooker known as the SEC...
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Justin Goar 9 months ago
will,
this was an awesome read. lots of good analysis and info.
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Michael Shibley 9 months ago
***** and POTD Will!
It is painful for me to watch the vols struggle like this, however you made a great comparison to Majors and I think the situation is the same here. Majors was ousted because of how great Fulmer did, and now people see the success from all of the other great SEC programs and their coaches.
I have said this before, Fulmer does great when his back is to the wall, which is why they have a shot at UGA. However, this may be a situation Fulmer can't fight his way out of.
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Isaac Luber 9 months ago
Good article. If Tennessee went 7-5 and won their bowl game, wouldn't Fulmer still keep his job? That would also make them 8-5. That would mean they could lose to both Bama and the Dawgs, and come out with a win over Vandy and the rest of the teams and then win their bowl game. Fulmer has been a good coach, but recently he has been going downhill. I think its time for him to move on. Maybe he can be a successful coach somewhere else. Tennessee needs change.
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Will Shelton 9 months ago
I think the contract says "eight wins in the regular season", so if that's correct it wouldn't include the bowl game. Though if the scenario you're describing happened, they'll certainly want to make that more clear.
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Tim R 9 months ago
Yup, Will's right. It's Article XVII (Part A) of the contract, available here:
http://media.timesfreepress.com/docs/2008/10/FulmerContract8.12.08.pdf
The buyout (Article XVII Part D) is to be made in 48 equal monthly installments - so that should not be that big a deal IMHO.
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Isaac Luber 9 months ago
Thanks, Tim.
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