Several players are entering this season surrounded by hype and excitement.
This is a list of the players that I think will fail to live up to their lofty expectations—and who could really hurt your fantasy team.
This list is all about expectations. There are some very good players on this list, but they might not be worth the draft pick you would have to use to get them.
Nicolas Lidstrom, Defense, Detroit Red Wings
Love starting the list with a controversial pick. Lidstrom has been the top defenseman in the league for several years in a row, and has always lived up to his billing. But at the age of 38, his numbers are bound to start decreasing.
Don't get me wrong, Lidstrom is absolutely a top-five defenseman this year, and probably even a top-three defenseman. I just don't believe that he will remain the best in the NHL, and he should not be a first-round pick.
He's on a terrific Red Wings team, so his plus-minus will be fantastic, but expect assists and points to be on the decline.
Lidstrom has never been able to rack up penalty minutes, and since he is no longer as fleet of foot, this will become a glaring problem. This is the year where he gets surpassed in fantasy by young guns Dion Phaneuf and Mike Green.
Alex Kovalev, Right Wing, Montreal Canadiens
At the end of the '06-07 season, Kovalev looked like his age had caught up to him and that his career was essentially done. However, he bounced back and had a career year last year, putting up 84 points—including 35 goals.
Kovalev has had an excellent career, and last season was a wonderful trip down memory lane for Alex, but he is no longer the type of player that can score 35 goals every year.
Kovalev will play on Montreal's first line with Alex Tanguay and Tomas Plekanec. Plekanec is not a number-one center at this point in his career, and Tanguay will probably take some goals away from Kovalev. Expect Kovalev's numbers to come crashing back down to earth this season.
Steven Stamkos, Center, Ryan Malone, Left Wing, Radim Vrbata, Right Wing, Tampa Bay Lightning
This Lightning team is getting a lot of hype going into this season, and it seems like people have forgotten that this was the worst team in all of hockey last season. It's hard to believe that a team that was this bad last season will improve drastically with only the addition of two journeymen wingers and an 18-year-old.
As it stands right now, these three newcomers will all play together on the second line. Stamkos, the number-one pick in the 2008 draft, will show flashes of brilliance, but will also be inconsistent and demonstrate his lack of experience. Stamkos also holds the unfortunate role of having the hopes of the Lightning season on his shoulders, as many fans are dubbing him the next coming of Gretzky.
Malone had a career year last year, but he was flanked by Evgeni Malkin and Petr Sykora. Without Malkin feeding him the puck, you can expect Malone to fall back down to mediocrity.
Vrbata is definitely the least-exciting player out of these three, and while he had a productive year last year, history shows that he is a mid-level goal scorer at best.
Ultimately the success of this line and these three players in the fantasy world will fall on Stamkos. Malone and Vrbata have proven themselves to be mediocre, but Stamkos has the chance to be a star. In the end, Stamkos won't be a superstar off the bat, and Malone's and Vrbata's numbers will suffer as a result.
Dan Carcillo, Left Wing, Phoenix Coyotes
Carcillo was a true fantasy anomaly last season—a goon who could also score. To go along with 324 penalty minutes, he also netted 13 goals. The player with the next=most penalty minutes last season was Jared Boll, who had 226—98 less than Carcillo. That should give you an idea of just how extraordinary Carcillo's season was last season.
Carcillo is destined to be a checking-line player for his career, so the 24 points that he put up last season should be close to his ceiling. Since he isn't much of a offensive threat, his value comes from his ability to rack up penalty minutes. Unfortunately, there is no chance that Carcillo will approach the 324 penalty minutes that he had last year. Expect 200.
There is no doubt that Carcillo has value, but he is merely a slightly better model of players like Jared Boll, Riley Cote, or Adam Burish.
Johan Franzen, Left Wing, Detroit Red Wings
No player was hotter at the end of last season and in the playoffs than Franzen. He was so good that many people believe he will score 40 goals, or even 50, this season. I am absolutely not one of these people.
There are several issues that I have with Franzen going into this season. Everything about him points to last season being a career year, and him being set up for a big fall.
For starters, Franzen is 28 years old. During his hot streak last season, I just assumed that he was 22 or 23 because this was his breakout season. However, he's been on the Red Wings roster, and healthy, for years. In '05-06 and '06-07, Franzen put up 16 and 30 points while playing a full docket of games.
While Franzen has inherent value just by the fact that he is on a dominant Red Wings team, the notion that he has 40- or 50-goal potential this season is preposterous.
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3 months ago
Hey why dont you stop righting about the Red Wings when you obviously know nothing about them.
Lidstroms numbers have gone up since the lockout.
And Franzen? His first year he played on the 4th line, his 2nd year he played on the 3rd line, and last year he started on a line with Datsyuk and Holmstrom before getting injured and being put on the 3rd line. Maybe if you had put a little bit of effort into your research you would know that Zetterberg is centering the 2nd line with Franzen and Hudler as his wingers.
Now Osgood. Obviously Brodeur must be an average goailie at best to because he just benefits from the devils defensive play. sounds stupid right? Thats what your saying about Osgood is he the best? No, however he is a very good goalie, who has won 3 cups, 2 as a starter.
Next time you write an article why dont you actually try researching some of the biased shit that you say. Who know maybe you will actually be able to write something good. Anythings possible I guess
3 months ago
wow, its just an opinion buddy. my bad on the zetterberg thing, i actually read about that a couple hours after i published. other than that i stand by it.
Lidstroms been great since the lockout, but IN MY OPINION, other defensemen are going to close the gap this year.
Osgood is clearly a clutch playoff goalie, i'm not denying that, but a dominant fantasy one at the age of 35, i doubt it.
you're criticizing my research but the only error that you pointed out was the Zetterberg thing. I never claimed that lidstroms numbers have gone down since the lockout or that osgood hasnt won 3 cups.
what it comes down is that these are ultimately my opinions. You might think that franzen is a 50 goal scorer, thats fine, write an article about it, i dont care.
also back to the zetterberg thing, i would have appreciated an edit, not a full out attack on the comment board.
from 3 months ago
Osgood's number of Cups is now equal to his height in feet. 3.
WHOO
3 months ago
yep detroit sucks osgood sucks sounds about right
3 months ago
also carrie price and the montreal canadians for that matter
from 2 months ago
Hello Leaf fan. Check out your dumb comment at Xmas and see if you are correct. Don't let jealousy cloud your judgement.
3 months ago
I was surprised Detroit didn't grab another goalie over the off-season. Lidstrom might be like Chelios. They are work-out freaks. If Detroit trades for a Dman remember,Salo means not having to say you're Souray!
3 months ago
I hate Detroit...But I think they will be a force in the league this year. It doesn't take a genius to make that statement because they haven't lost anybody and picked up Hossa. But let's not get carried away Detroit fans...even the Lindstrom's of the world get old. Chelios may be able to play till he's 100...but he's a freak...and I don't remember hearing his name in any highlight reels last year so comparing him to Lindstrom may not be that great of the thing at this stage of his career. If, as the article points out, age does start hitting a few key player...i.e. their goalie and top defensemen...you may see some chinks in the armor up there...not to mention the injury bug. If Detroit keeps healthy they are favorites. 80+ games and a deep playoff run is hard for anybody let alone grey beards...I don't care what the workout regiment looks like. I respect the love...but lets not blindfold ourselves here...age will become a factor sooner than later.
The one on the list that hurts the most is Alex Kovalev. His shot is an absolut laser beam. I hate to see him start to sputter out. He's been around a long time though...we'll see. I'm not a Canadien's fan...but I love to see his name in the scoring race.
2 months ago
Solid article, but you do seem to pick on the Wings. Kovalev is reenergized and will be exciting to watch now that Tanguay is there and can take some scoring pressure off.
2 months ago
Malcolm- if you got your information right, there would have been no need for any of that attacking by "Zack". It is amazing they have someone like yourself write something like this; not even 100 % accurate. And yes, you did make a mistake, but people base their opinions off people like yourself, so I think I can speak for the majority when I say, get your facts straight or find another profession. One more thing, talk like a professional when responding to peoples posts. It is your article, and you want to respond to someone by "my bad" or "go write an article on it, I don't care," show some respect, thats the only way people will actually give YOU any.
2 months ago
If you knew anything about the Habs, you'd know Kovalev isn't playing on a line with Tanguay. The guy is still the heart of the best PP in the league. Get your facts straight.
2 months ago
allright, I feel like I need to respond to these comments.
Stephen - valid comment, dont get me wrong, Kovalev's the man. I just feel like there are people who believe that he can match the numbers he put up last season and I just don't think he will.
Anthony - i completely understand where you're coming from, i wasn't trying to be unprofessional or disrespectful, sorry if it came off that way. these comments help, im new to bleacher report and trying to get better.
Bill - I wrote the article before the season started, and I thought that the proposed first line was tanguay, plekanec and Kovalev. I vividly remember reading that from a reputable source. If thats not the case then I apologize, but I think the change must have been made after I wrote the article.
2 months ago
For all of you pathetic Individuals who hate the Red Wings have fun watching them hoist another cup over their heads again this year. Kenny Holland is a mastermind!!! Babcock is a proven winner and the team is stacked with talent up the Ying Yang!!!! Detroit's Second line is better than most teams 1st lines!!! Also, Malcolm, Franzen scored two goals yesterday?????I think you may want to retract your comments on him!!!!
from 2 months ago
two goals is far from 50...not hating on Franzen, but lets take a deep breathe and let things fall into place. Like I said previously...I respect the love in Detroit...it's a true hockey city...but the players aren't made of gold up there :O) They have the talent to win the cup again...but it's 90+ games away. A lot can happen between now and then.
2 months ago
Ur right about Osgood, he will win games but it will be ebcause he is on the wings, not because of his play. Although I don't agree with the fact that he isn't a top-20 goalie. He is easily better then a lot of goalies out there.
I agree with most things you say, except for Carcillo, I agree he wont get as many PIM's this year, but he will get more points this year because he will not only get more time on the ice this year, he will also get a full season this year as well.
2 months ago
yeah, he had a great game. i can't just retract a statement. I said it and I'm not going to go back on it now. I think people think that I hate every player on the red wings. it just happened that 3 were on this list. I actually really like kronwall, holmstrom, cleary, hudler, datsyuk, zetterberg, hossa this year. its only three players not the whole team.
2 months ago
I have to disagree with the Lidstrom comment. Betting against one of the 3 best defencemen of all time, on a stacked Detroit Red Wings team is never a good idea. He may not be a 1st round pick, but should be the first defenceman off the board.
Decent article Malcolm, looking forward to your next one.
2 months ago
Okay you are just an idiot. Lidstrom is going to have over 70 points, Franzen is working himself towards a career year and David Booth looks stronger than ever. I think you just randomly pulled some names out of a hat and wrote what your wife thought you should say. Do some more research and come out with a new article when you know what you are talking about.
2 months ago
wow, not a popular article
2 months ago
Great article...not because I agree with everything...but because it stirred the pot. If you want people to read, you have to make a statement...time will tell if you were right...but that's what it's all about!
2 months ago
absolutely, thanks buddy
2 months ago
For all of you Detroit fans I'll support Malcolm on these opinions, and here's why:
(1) Though Lidstrom is arguably the best defenseman in the NHL, he IS NOT the #1 fantasy defenseman in the league. For example, CBS projects 5 guys to be more valuable than Lidstrom in fantasy play this year (Blake, Chara, Green, McCabe, and Phaneuf) based on the total sum of G, A, PPG, SHG, +/-, PIM, and SOG. I would take Green, Phaneuf, and Chara over Lidstrom in fantasy.
(2) Franzen played EXTREMELY well in the playoffs last year and I don't think anyone here is questioning that. I passed on Franzen to draft guys like Simon Gagne, Eric Staal, and Ryan Getzlaf since I consider them more proven. He may score 50+ this year, but I too have my doubts.
(3) Osgood is a good goalie in the league, but he only seems to play well with only the best defensemen in front of him. I never even heard his name mentioned when he was with St Louis, so he can't be that great. Additionally, in fantasy he's not going to get as many starts as the the Luongos and Brodeurs and Millers, so I passed on him knowing that other people would want him and instead drafted Fleury and Kiprusoff and then drafted Conklin as my backup since he is going to get plenty of playing time this year.
Summary: Detroit is the best team on the ice when it comes to real play, hence why they won the Cup last year. However, some of their players aren't the best choices when it comes to fantasy play.
from 2 months ago
Now wait a minute. I don't care what CBS says (their fantasy hockey coverage is by far their weakest of the four big sports, IMO), there is not a chance that a nearly spent Rob Blake is more valuable than Nick Lidstrom this year. NONE. Arguments can be made for Green and Phaneuf very easily, and maybe Chara, but no way Blake, and no way McCabe, for that matter. Obviously, the scoring you are referring to is rotisserie while I am coming from the head-to-head perspective, but no matter what system you use, there is no way Blake and McCabe will finish ahead of Lidstrom this year.
With Franzen, I already agreed with Malcom, and thus, you too. With Osgood, however, I can't wait to see all you "only as good as the d-men in front of him" folks get to eat crow when he is elected to the Hall of Fame. Don't think it's going to happen? Yeah, it probably is. A goalie with his career win totals, three Stanley Cups (two as starter), a 2.43 GAA, and longevity is a strong bet for the Hall. As for where he was in St. Louis, a 31-25-3 record with a GAA of 2.24 and a save percentage of .910 on a mediocre at best team should answer that question. As for his fantasy value, as I said in my other comment to Malcolm, last time I checked, easy wins as the Wings goalie count as much as all those tough wins earned by Luongo et al. Again, maybe it is the difference between roto and HTH, but in the latter, he is an absolute lock as a top 20 goalie and usually top 10.
2 months ago
I think you're taking so much flak because some of your opinions seem to border on personal grudges rather than informed opinions where people can sit back and say "Yeah, that makes sense.' Take your comments on Osgood, for instance. You say he will not be a "top 20" fantasy goalie. Think about that for a minute. With the Wings set to likely at least equal their 54 wins of a year ago and Osgood poised to once again get the majority of starts, you have to figure he's in line for right around the 30 wins he's hovered around the last two seasons he was the healthy starter. That fact alone ensures he'll be a top 20 goalie. If you had said top 10, you would have had a valid point. I mean, people keep saying, "he's only rated that high because of that Detroit team in front of him." Um, so? Did I miss the scoring change this year where goalies are penalized for "easy wins earned by juggernaut team?" Pretty sure I didn't. Thus, once you accept that Osgood IS going to get all those "easy" wins (an argument for another time), it's ludicrous to say he won't be a top 20 goalie. Last year, he tied for 6th in average points per week in head-to-head leagues at 6.6; in other words, nowhere near slipping below the top 20 mark.
The only way he is not top 20 this year is if he is lost to injury for a substantial period of time. You do try to hedge your bets that way by saying he "can't be expected to last the season" because he's 35, but again, you're ignoring his career performance by saying that. Osgood has been the complete opposite of "injury prone" during his career--look at his games played totals. The only years that dips below full-time equivalents are 2005 and 2006 when he was definitely the back-up goalie. Otherwise, he's been in the 40-60 games started range his entire career, and no reason to expect otherwise. Age 35 doesn't mean automatic injuries on a player who has never had severe injuries--it's silly to think that way.
I am not saying any of this just because I'm a Wings fan. I agree with your comments on Franzen, at least partially. No way he gets the 50 that some fanatics are calling for, and I don't think he gets 40 either. I do believe, however, he will easily get to 30, so his value might be a bit higher than you are allowing for. He and Hank are great together, and he absolutely is one of those guys who simply has a knack for scoring goals. I think he'll be a totally safe fantasy pick this year, although he'll never get you a lot of assists. As for Lidstrom, his points might dip a bit, but they aren't going too low anytime soon, not as long as he's still getting 26+ minutes of ice time per game, including most of the PP time. As another person said, he is known in the lockerroom as a total workout freak, like Chelly, and is always in fantastic game-shape. Yes, he eventually has to slow down in scoring, and there likely will be a small dip this year, but I don't think you'll see the larger drop you seem to be predicting.
2 months ago
i don't think I clarified this well enough. if you look at the last paragraph about osgood it says, "Osgood will win a lot of games just as a result of being on a excellent Red Wings team, but in terms of his fantasy relevance in every other category, he will not be a top-20 fantasy goalie." This means, if you take wins out of the equation, he won't be top twenty. so the not top 20 isnt as ridiculous as most people are saying. osgood has won 3 cups and could very well be hall of famer, but you have to admit that its hard to back someone who hasnt started a season as a starting goalie since 03-04. Also for lidstrom, im not necessarily predicting a big drop off for him, i just think that guys like green and phaneuf will catch him this year. I really hope my comments don't actually come off as personal grudges, they're not meant to.
2 months ago
i don't think I clarified this well enough. if you look at the last paragraph about osgood it says, "Osgood will win a lot of games just as a result of being on a excellent Red Wings team, but in terms of his fantasy relevance in every other category, he will not be a top-20 fantasy goalie." This means, if you take wins out of the equation, he won't be top twenty. so the not top 20 isnt as ridiculous as most people are saying. osgood has won 3 cups and could very well be hall of famer, but you have to admit that its hard to back someone who hasnt started a season as a starting goalie since 03-04. Also for lidstrom, im not necessarily predicting a big drop off for him, i just think that guys like green and phaneuf will catch him this year. I really hope my comments don't actually come off as personal grudges, they're not meant to.
from 2 months ago
This is a "fantasy" article right? So what makes a good fantasy goalie? In my league it's pretty damn important to win games, so why would you take wins out of the equation? What stats are used, saves, save %, shut outs, goals against and wins? What other stats would be used in a rotisserie league? I would say Osgood will rate pretty high in Save %, shut outs, goals against and wins. As far as fantasy, I'd say that would make him a top 20.
Also, this article is guys you think will struggle and hurt your team, actually I belive you have it "could really hurt your fantasy team." Well, again, how would Green and Phaneuf "catching" Lidstrom hurt my fantasy team if I own Nick? Doesn't make sence. Or atleast don't flip flop, do you think Lidstrom will struggle or not?
2 months ago
Pretty funny article. I own all 3 of these Red Wings and I am considered one of the smartest in my league. I will end up with the last laugh! Osgood will win 40 games and how can you go wrong with him. He was a keeper and I had to give up a 11th round pick. Lindstrom I got in the 2nd round and Frazen was part of a trade before the season started. By the way I have Hank Zetterberg as well. I know were my bread is buttered! Go Wings!
2 months ago
First off, this guy is a Pittsburgh fan, so of course he's going to write negative remarks about the Wings. This is why if you are going to write articles, you should really try and be objective. You can't write from a "fans" prespective.
Now about your "opinions." Lidstrom is a hall of famer who has never been fast, nor has he declined in quickness. Also, please, his name is Nicklas Lidstrom, not Nicolas. The guy has atleast earned name recognition from everyone.
Also on these opinions, are you doing this based on fantasy draft position or just how you think they will do. If you are saying these guys won't live up to draft position, fine, but if you are just throwing out your random thoughts then I can't figure out why you would write this. What do you know about Chris Osgoods playing time? He has always won ATLEAST half of his starts. So how many games to you think he'll play? Give us some insite, not just your gut feel. Back up something with some facts.
You seem to do that more with the other players you coverd, but the things you wrote about the Detroit players are clearly out of dislike or just plain hate. When you make comments about production from someone and just use games played, that really doesn't make sence. You need to look at ice time and situational time. If you look at Franzen's numbers, you can see his points, PIM, shots, PPG, and ice time have all increased the past 3 seasons. Plus the guy had 27 goals and missed 10 games. As far as fantasy goes, I don't have his ADP in front of me, but it couldn't have been all that great, and playing on the line he's playing with now, I think 30 goals is a certain. How can that not be a valuable fantasy option?
And tell me, what hype is was made about Carcillo? I'm not sure what type of fantasy hype there wasy other then for those leagues that use a goon position. I know in our league, he was drafted in the 20th round of a 22 round draft, so he can clearly produce as well if not better then a 20th rounder.
You show that you can write and make a lot of sence and valid points on the other write ups, but I feel you should try and cut that fan out of you when you make these type of articles.
2 months ago
Osgood's combined regular season and play-off stats from last year:
GP: 62
Wins: 41
Losses: 13
OT: 4
GAA: 1.83
SV%: 92%
If thats not top twenty credentials then please explain to me what is!
2 months ago
Reason I combined the playoffs and regular season was to get a Games played number closer to what he will start this year.
2 months ago
I just read your artical regarding over hyped and over valued fantasy players. Your evaluation on Osgood is so off base in regards to the intention of the article. Osgood may not be the #1 or even one of the top 10 goalies in the league, but as far as fantasy value, being on the team he is he will post many wins and rack up a substantial number of fantasy points. Goalies in particular are greatly valued by the defense in front of them as well as the ability for a team to be offensive minded most of the time - which is the case in Detroit.
Evaluation of players in regards to standings in the NHL was not what your article was supposed to be - it was supposed to evaluate the "FANTASY" value and on that basis your evaluation is off base.
Another example is Franzen, alone in regards to NHL overall maybe you're close but when he is combined with linemates that he has is "fantasy" value is increased.
As you pointed out Steve Stamkos probably is over-hyped and valued, not because he is not a good player but because of the team around him. You seem to switch gears throught the article whithout regard to staying on the topic of the article.
2 months ago
Whoever said that Osgood will be in the Hall of Fame gave me a really good laugh!! Since when do "better than average" numbers get you enshrined in Toronto?? Are you really going to put Osgood in a class with people like Patrick Roy and Grant Fuhr?? I don't think so!! And as far as Osgood's ability aside from playing on a good team...anyone catch last years All Star Game?? Osgood was absolutely lit up in the Skills contest AND the game itself! Yeah, it was an all star game, but every other goalie in it played MUCH better than he did!
about 1 month ago
man i wish everyone who posted on this article would come back and read it again. the only guy I was even close to wrong about is david booth.
lidstrom is the 9th best fantasy defenseman at this point and osgood isn't even top 25 for goalies
about 1 month ago
man i wish everyone who posted on this article would come back and read it again. the only guy I was even close to wrong about is david booth.
lidstrom is the 9th best fantasy defenseman at this point and osgood isn't even top 25 for goalies
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