NASCAR: Where Will Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s Next Sprint Cup Win Come?
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last Sprint Cup win came at Michigan in the summer of 2008. Since that fuel-mileage victory, Junior has had four runner-up finishes, eight top fives and 23 top 10s, but no wins.
Now that it has been 100 races since his last Cup points win, let’s look at the 10 tracks where Junior stands the best chance to bring his winless streak to an end.
Junior has won at most of these tracks in the past. Here they are presented in the order in which they appear next on the Sprint Cup schedule.
Talladega Superspeedway (Next Race April 17)
1 of 10
Odds of winning: 5 to 1
Dale Jr. has more wins at Talladega than he has at any other track. With five wins, 11 top 10s in 22 races and nearly 700 laps led, he is always a favorite to challenge for the win.
Although he hasn't had a Talladega win since 2004, Junior has led laps in the last ten races at the track. He knows how to find his way to the front. He nearly won the spring 2009 race, finishing second to Brad Keselowski.
But recently, Junior has managed to find trouble near the end of most Talladega races, with only two top 10s in his last seven starts at the track.
His luck is due to change sooner or later, and he ought to find Victory Lane before long. He won four consecutive Talladega races from 2001-2003, so he's certainly capable of going on a hot streak.
If he can avoid trouble and find a good drafting partner at the end of the race, Junior has as good a shot as any driver to be the one celebrating at the end of the race.
Richmond International Raceway (Next Race April 30)
2 of 10
Odds of winning: 9 to 1
Since 2008, Dale Jr. has finished outside the top 20 in the last four Richmond races, with just one lead-lap finish in that span. Even still, it's his fourth-best track in terms of average finish at 14.1.
Junior has three career Richmond wins, second-most of any track. He also has ten career top 10s in 23 career races, just one DNF and has led over 400 laps at the track.
Still, it might take a little luck for Junior to get a fourth win at Richmond. He has led more than 50 laps at Richmond three times before, but won only one of those races. However, he has been able to find his way to the front at the right time in the past
With new crew chief Steve Letarte on the pit box, Junior just might be able to rekindle the magic and capture his first Richmond victory in five years.
Darlington Raceway (Next Race May 7)
3 of 10
Odds of winning: 14 to 1
Earnhardt ran well at Darlington in his first race there with Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, finishing fourth after leading 35 laps. However, he's struggled in the two races since, failing to crack the top 15.
In 16 starts at the track, Junior has seven top 10s and three top fives, but no wins. His trademark has been consistency: His average finish is 15.2, with only one DNF, while completing 98.1 percent of all possible laps.
The biggest question mark for Junior at Darlington is his ability to lead laps. He has led laps in just five of 16 Darlington races, with a total of just 170 laps led at the track.
However, if he can start near the front and stay out of trouble, Dale Jr. just might be around at the end to have a say in the final result.
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Michigan International Speedway (Next Race June 19)
4 of 10
Odds of winning: 10 to 1
Michigan is the site of Earnhardt's only Cup series victory since coming to Hendrick Motorsports in 2008. He took that race in a fuel-mileage gambit, leading 14 laps en route to the win.
Since that victory, he has notched two more top 10s, including a third-place result in 2009. Junior now has four career Michigan top fives and eight top 10s, as well as two poles.
Junior has led laps in nine of the previous 11 races at the two-mile, D-shaped oval. Although, he has only 175 laps led in 23 career Michigan races. In fact, he has never led more than 43 laps in any Michigan race, and has led as many as 40 laps just twice.
Still, with a strong car and favorable circumstances, he certainly has the capability to gain a second Michigan win during one of the two trips to the track this summer. And as Kevin Harvick has shown during his two wins in 2011, it doesn't matter how many laps you lead—only that you lead the last one.
Daytona International Speedway (Next Race July 2)
5 of 10
Odds of winning: 7 to 1
Junior's record at Daytona speaks for itself.
He has two career Cup wins at Daytona, including the 2004 Daytona 500. In addition, Junior has eight top fives, 13 top 10s and has led 395 laps in his 23 career Daytona races.
Daytona is also Junior's strongest track for qualifying, with an average starting position of 10.7 and one pole in the Daytona 500 this year.
Dale Jr. has also won several non-Sprint Cup points races at Daytona. Most recently, he took the Nationwide race there last July in an emotional victory with a retro paint scheme.
With a knack for finding his way to the front at Daytona like perhaps no driver since his father, Junior displays incredible skill in catching the draft and making just the right moves to reach the front.
No one would be surprised to see him in Victory Lane as he seeks to carry on the Earnhardt legacy at Daytona International Speedway.
Bristol Motor Speedway (Next Race August 27)
6 of 10
Odds of winning: 9 to 1
Bristol Motor Speedway is Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s best track in terms of average finish at 11.48. He has one win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s and 20 top 20s in 23 total Bristol races. He has led 743 laps at the track, the second-most laps he has led anywhere in his Sprint Cup career.
Perhaps most impressive, however, is Junior's ability to stay out of trouble at the Bristol bullring. He only has one DNF at the world's fastest half-mile.
Despite these gaudy statistics, Junior has struggled at one aspect of Bristol lately: leading laps. He's only led one lap in the past nine Bristol races, and just 36 since 2005.
Junior's struggles to get to the front could be a product of his recent qualifying struggles at the track. With just one top 15 starting position since 2003, Junior's average starting position has slipped in recent seasons. It currently stands at 21.6, second-worst of any track for him.
If Junior can improve his qualifying and start closer to the front, his driving abilities just might be enough to get him to the top of the leaderboard and into Victory Lane at the end of the beating and banging.
Atlanta Motor Speedway (next Race September 4)
7 of 10
Odds of winning: 12 to 1
Atlanta has always been one of Dale Jr.'s favorite tracks. It is his second-best track statistically, with an average finish of 12.5.
Junior has eight top fives in 23 career Atlanta races and one win there in 2004. He has two poles, including one last March (start of race pictured above), and has led 632 laps at the mile-and-a-half quad oval.
Twice he has dominated races at the track, leading more than 140 laps, although he failed to win either of those races.
It's been six races since his last Atlanta top 10, but Junior has maintained consistency over that stretch by finishing on the lead lap in every race. Over his career, Junior has completed 99.4 percent of all possible laps at the track.
If he and crew chief Steve Letarte can get the car dialed in, Junior's winless streak could very well meet its end in Atlanta come September.
Martinsville Speedway (Next Race October 30)
8 of 10
Odds of winning: 8 to 1
Junior came oh-so-close to ending his winless streak at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago, but was passed by Kevin Harvick just a few laps before the end of the race.
Martinsville is Dale Jr.'s third-best track in average finish at 13.3. But despite leading 865 laps at the paper clip-shaped half mile, he has never won there.
However, Junior has has finished second at Martinsville twice, third twice, fourth three times and fifth twice. So he definitely knows his way around the track. He has 12 top 10s in 23 career Martinsville events.
His Hendrick teammates also have a combined 15 wins at Martinsville, and the track was the site of Hendrick's first win back in 1984. It would be both fitting and not surprising if Earnhardt Jr. were to win at Martinsville this October...whether or not his winless streak is still even going at that point.
Texas Motor Speedway (Next Race November 6)
9 of 10
Odds of winning: 12 to 1
Junior had a decent run at Texas on Saturday night, finishing ninth after challenging for a top 5. It'll take more than that to get a win, but it showed that the team is still heading in the right direction after a strong start to the season.
Texas was the site of Junior's first win in the Cup series, back in April of 2001. Since that time, Junior has had success at the 1.5 mile quad-oval, but hasn't returned to Victory Lane.
Throughout his career, Dale Jr. has qualified well at Texas, with an average start of 10.9 and two poles—including one as recently as 2008. He has led 448 laps at the track while scoring three top fives and nine top 10s.
Junior has been strong at Texas lately, with top 10s in two of the last three races and laps led in eight of the last ten. It's been a while since his first Texas win, but he is very capable of taking the checkered flag when the series returns to Texas in November.
Phoenix International Raceway (Next Race November 13)
10 of 10
Odds of winning: 12 to 1
I predict that the winless streak will be over by November. But if not, the final track that presents an excellent opportunity for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win is Phoenix International Raceway.
Dale Jr. has had success at Phoenix's flat one-mile tri-oval throughout his career. He won consecutive races there in 2003 and 2004 when the track hosted only one race. He has led 460 laps there throughout his career, including 150 with Hendrick Motorsports.
In fact, he had two excellent races there in 2008, notching driver ratings of 113.1 and 127.3 while finishing sixth and seventh. He's been solid during his last three Phoenix races as well, finishing on the lead lap and in the top 15, including a top 10 earlier this year.
If Junior hasn't won by November, and if Junior and crew chief Steve Letarte can keep the chemistry that they currently have going for the No. 88 team, Phoenix will present one last opportunity for Junior Nation to get on its feet and cheer for a victory.
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