Robert Guerrero is being consistently picked to win against Michael Katsidis for their April 9th boxing match.
The majority of the picks are based on the skill advantage that Guerrero seemingly enjoys.
However, to quickly dismiss a boxer with Katsidis' resume and ability is disrespectful and, in this case, potentially wrong.
Following are the top five reasons Michael Katsidis can beat Robert Guerrero.
Guerrero has underrated power, particularly in light of having only 18 knockouts in 28 victories.
In his two most recent matches, Guerrero had Vicente Escobedo and Joel Casamayor down and seemingly on the verge of being stopped. Both times Guerrero backed off and did not finish his opponents.
Against Casamayor, it nearly cost him the victory, as Casamayor was able to knock down and seriously hurt Guerrero in the 10th round.
Against Escobedo, it made what should have been a showcase victory into a difficult, long fight.
Katsidis is known for his ability to survive and to carry his intensity late into fights. It would be a mistake on Guerrero’s part if he does not attempt to finish Katsidis should the opportunity arise.
If Guerrero takes the approach of trying to safely box and stay away for the final few rounds, he will find that Katsidis will not willingly oblige.
Guerrero appears to be the naturally bigger man, with a four-inch reach advantage and a one-inch height advantage.
However, it is Katsidis who has spent the majority of his career at lightweight, while Guerrero has only fought at lightweight a handful of times.
Further, Katsidis is a physical lightweight who is extremely strong for his size.
Katsidis has the ability to physically impose himself on and wear down his opponents.
This fight will be the ultimate test of Guerrero’s ability to handle the pressure of a large lightweight. Which brings us to…
Guerrero wears down during fights.
He often has his greatest difficulties during the second half of a match. Specifically, the Casamayor fight stands out as raising concerns regarding Guerrero’s endurance.
Casamayor is currently past his prime and Guerrero enjoyed a significant youth advantage.
Despite this, it was Guerrero who was seemingly gassed and trying to stay on his feet after getting dropped by Casamayor.
Katsidis is known for his ability to keep coming.
He rarely slows down and has only ever looked discouraged against Juan Manuel Marquez, who is a master boxer and top pound-for-pound fighter.
It is doubtful that Guerrero has the ability or the power on par with Marquez. Guerrero will find himself having to dig deeper than he ever has to fend off Katsidis over the late rounds.
What Katsidis is willing to go through for a win
It is unfair and disrespectful to ever say that a fighter of Guerrero’s caliber and with his resume lacks heart.
The mere fact that Guerrero is willing to step into the ring against a boxers such as Katsidis is stark evidence that he is a brave individual.
But while it is unfair to question Guerrero’s heart, it is not unfair to ask if he has as much heart as Katsidis.
The specter of the Daud Cino Yordan fight continues to hang over Guerrero’s career.
In this fight, Guerrero seemed unwilling to continue after suffering a seemingly non-threatening cut over his eye.
Of course, only Guerrero knows the true severity of the cut, but it is difficult to imagine Katsidis being as eager to stop fighting regardless of the severity of the cut.
Katsidis has shown a willingness to fight through cuts and injuries, while Guerrero has not.
Should the fight become difficult down the stretch, it does not appear that Guerrero will be willing to go to the same extremes as Katsidis.
Juan Diaz soundly out-boxed Katsidis in 2008, but since that time, Katsidis has shown consistently improving skills.
Katsidis has widened his stance and bends at the knees instead of bending his back to get low.
He shoots the jab to get inside instead of simply bullying his way in.
He bobs and weaves throws his combos with more balance. Only Marquez, who is one of the most exceptional boxing talents currently in the sport, has been able to outbox Katsidis.
The movement and unpredictable hooks of Katsidis will enable to him to get inside and land consistently on Guerrero.
Although Guerrero is the more refined outside fighter, he is not as skilled boxing on the inside.
It will be Katsidis’ skill—not solely his heart—that allows him to get inside, and that is where he will be able to defeat Guerrero.
It is time for the fearless prediction.
Michael Katsidis will beat Robert Guerrero on April 9th through a mixture of size, strength, and—shockingly—guile.
He will routinely work his way to the inside, where he will be able to impose his will and make Guerrero uncomfortable.
Eventually Guerrero will fade and suffer a split decision loss or late knock out at the hands of Katsidis.