The moment it was announced that Billy Wagner needed Tommy John Surgery and would likely miss the entire 2009 season (the remainder of his contract with the Mets), Mets fans began anointing Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez as the new closer.
The current Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim closer sits atop most Mets fans' off-season wish lists. His record-breaking 62 saves during the 2008 season just added fuel to the fire of Mets fans' desire for Rodriguez.
Unlike the masses, I don't think signing Rodriguez to the lucrative deal he is looking for would be such a good idea. Sure, K-Rod is a good closer at this point in time, I will not deny that; but, for several reasons, I don't want the Mets to sign him.
"Rivera Money"
According to Rodriguez's agent, Paul Kinzer, he wants at least five years at "Mariano money." Mariano refers to Yankees' closer Mariano Rivera who before the 2008 season signed a three-year deal worth $45 million. So, Rodriguez will be looking for a five-year contract worth about $75 million.
Rodriguez is good, but he is not Mariano Rivera. With the Mets needing to fill holes in other areas such as middle relief, starting pitcher, and possibly second base, it would not be wise to spend that kind of money in one place.
Saves Are a Misleading Stat
Francisco Rodriguez recorded 62 saves this season, breaking the single-season record of 57 held by Bobby Thigpen. This led many fans to declare Rodriguez as the best closer in the major leagues. I disagree.
Rodriguez had 69 save opportunities in 2008. The closer with the next highest amount of save opportunities in 2008 was Houston's Jose Valverde with 51. Rodriguez had 18 more opportunities than any other closer. EIGHTEEN MORE OPPORTUNITIES! Of course he's going to have more saves than anyone else if he gets that many more opportunities.
Rodriguez did convert 90 percent of his save opportunities, which is very good, but there were closers who fared better. Phillies closer Brad Lidge converted all 41 of his save opportunities, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a 98 percent conversion rate, and Royals' closer Joakim Soria converted 93 percent of his save opportunities. Among closers with at least 20 save opportunities, 11 converted at least 87 percent of their save opportunities.
In my opinion, Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joakim Soria are better closers than Francisco Rodriguez.
K-Rod on the Decline
Francisco Rodriguez stormed onto the seen very late in the 2002 season. During the Angels run to the World Championship in the playoffs, Rodriguez was an important part of the Anaheim bullpen. The baby-faced 20-year-old was armed with a 98-mph fastball, and earned the nickname "K-Rod" by striking out 28 batters in 18.1 postseason innings.
However, since taking over the closer role in 2004, things seem to have changed a little. K-Rod has lost some velocity on his fastball, which now tops out at 94 miles per hour. Also, with the exception of 2006, K-Rod's stats have been on a steady decline. Here is his WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched, K/BB (strikeouts per walk), and K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) from 2004-2008:
| Year | WHIP | K/BB | K/9 |
| 2004 | 1 | 3.72 | 13.17 |
| 2005 | 1.14 | 2.84 | 12.16 |
| 2006 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 12.08 |
| 2007 | 1.25 | 2.64 | 12.02 |
| 2008 | 1.29 | 2.26 | 10.14 |
Over the years, Rodriguez has been allowing more base runners while walking more batters and striking out fewer batters. This is definitely not a good trend.
Rodriguez's 2008 WHIP of 1.29 places him 69th among relievers with at least 40 innings pitched. At some point, base runners will lead to runs.
I will not argue that Rodriguez is a good closer. However, looking at this steady decline leads me to believe that he will not be a good closer in a couple of years.
That is why the Mets should not sign him to a 5 year contract, and should not pay him "Rivera money", because fans will expect a Rivera quality closer, and that is not what they will get.
11 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
PJ Edelman 9 months ago
Word, Patrick, word. He is one of the top 10 closers in the game, but not top 3. He shouldn't get the kind of money he is asking for, although he will. If the Mets dont sign him, I dont know who will. I'd take him at 60 mil for 5 years, but I rather spend half of that on someone who will convert at nearly the same rate. I'm big on Fuentes and Wood as you already know.
Nice work
Edit Comment Cancel
Patrick Murray 9 months ago
I'd take him for 1 or 2 years at 12-13 million per year. Thinking about it, the market for him isn't very big- Angels, Mets, Cardinals, maybe Brewers, maybe Braves, maybe Cleveland. There aren't that many teams that absolutely need a closer. The Angels won't have a problem finding his replacement within their bullpen either
Edit Comment Cancel
sal rinella 9 months ago
He (K-Rod)will end up somwhere getting another team to the playoffs if Not The Mets!
Edit Comment Cancel
Patrick Murray 9 months ago
Thanks for reading sal. Wherever he goes, if they make the playoffs, it won't be mostly because of him, he will be a small part of it.
Edit Comment Cancel
Patrick Murray 9 months ago
I find it interesting that at 14 votes on the poll, 80% of people say no don't sign him to that contract. I thought most Mets fans adamantly wanted K-Rod. Maybe other teams fans are voting and they see it from a different angle, or maybe fans didn't know that he was asking for that big of a contract.
Edit Comment Cancel
PJ Edelman 9 months ago
your persuasive skills are just masterful. That's why :)
PS, I really like Arrendando or whatever on the Angels. He could easily close for them, and for cheap.
Edit Comment Cancel
Patrick Murray 8 months ago
Thank you lol yea arredondo looks good, either him or shields will be their closer if they dont resign K-Rod. Why can't the Mets find a guy like that in their system
Edit Comment Cancel
S H 9 months ago
agreed... and remember 69 outings aint good on the arm. look at thigpen - his career headed south after his record-breaking year.
Edit Comment Cancel
Dominick DiFucci 8 months ago
Patrick, I am looking for Die hard Mets Fans to write on my blog, Dom D's Mets Fan Blog (http://ddmetsfanblog.com). It would be a good way to get your writing out on the internet.
Please let me know and email me @ dom_difucci@ddmetsfanblog.com
Thanks,
Dom DiFucci
Edit Comment Cancel
Dominick DiFucci 8 months ago
Patrick, I am looking for Die hard Mets Fans to write on my blog, Dom D's Mets Fan Blog (http://ddmetsfanblog.com). It would be a good way to get your writing out on the internet.
Please let me know and email me @ dom_difucci@ddmetsfanblog.com
Thanks,
Dom DiFucci
Edit Comment Cancel
Eric Brenner 7 months ago
Well put Patrick. Especially considering the money he's asking, we could save on that contract, sign fuentes, and use the difference in money elsewhere. The guy cant save games if we dont have the lead. remember that.
Edit Comment Cancel
Leave a Comment
You must register to post a comment.