Michigan State Spartan Seasons 2008: VI

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy."

Those wise words (supposedly spoken by Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder) were my own unspoken battle plan when I began this weekly look at my evolving expectations for the Michigan State football season.

The idea was that I'd project every game out for the entire season, assigning a percentage chance of victory for the Spartans against each opponent, and then update those projections after each week.

Because no season ever plays out completely as expected, I anticipated this would be a neat way to chronicle how my thinking was changing each week as new information poured in about MSU and its future opponents.

In other words, this was supposed to work because I was supposed to be frequently wrong.

I started out thinking seven or eight wins, with losses to Cal, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin, but that was all supposed to deviate wildly as the year went along. This is college football. The unexpected is everywhere. That's why it's fun.

Alas, von Moltke's dictum is also a paradox: A battle plan that relies on failure is doomed to succeed! Just about every major expectation that I've had for the Spartans and their opponents have thus far been spot-on. Starting with the accurate prediction of a 4-1 start after a narrow loss at Cal, nothing to date has significantly moved my thinking.

Does chaos theory come back to the Spartan universe after I brag about being an accidental prophet, or does just saying that constitute a plan to get all fouled up? (Surely, if I'd planned to win actual money on this prognostication, then a blowout win against Cal would have been followed by four straight crushing defeats.)

Anyway, at some point soon I expect to be told to return to my seat and fasten my belt. But here's how I see the future.

Iowa: 70 percent chance of W (originally 60 percent)

This win expectation is five points higher than last week. Iowa gets downgraded after losing to a very mediocre Pitt and then letting Northwestern come back and beat them. I am starting to think this could be one of the Big Ten's worst teams.

This game should be a very controlled win for Michigan State, along the lines of the last three. Not necessarily a blowout, but hardly a nailbiter either.

@ Northwestern: 65 percent chance of W (originally 60 percent)

I called them a very weak 4-0 team last week and said this was a 75 percent chance of win. The Wildcats' win over Iowa and Michigan State's troubles with Indiana's running QB led me to think better of the opponent in this game. However, putting up a zillion yards against Michigan State last season, Northwestern still barely won the game.

I don't expect a repeat performance as the Spartans should finally have both of their starting safeties on the field and healthy.

Ohio State: 40 percent chance of W (originally 30 percent)

The Beanie Wells injury moved this one up from the dismal 30 percent projection to something slightly more hopeful. Now Beanie's back and MSU probably will have fits with Pryor running all over the place. I should probably move it back to 30 percent, but I smell an upset brewing in Wisconsin this weekend.

@ Michigan: toss-up (originally toss-up)

I keep moving this one all over the place. I had it up to 60 percent win last week, and now back to a toss-up.

The most unpredictable and dangerous team in the Big Ten is the Michigan Wolverines. They could yet lose five games and then beat Ohio State to end the season and go bowling.

So much depends upon how soon, how much, and IF their offense gets its act together. Michigan is always one hit away from disaster at QB (or the offensive line) and one huge play away from their defense stealing a win that shouldn't otherwise happen.

Michigan State SHOULD win this game. But it's in Ann Arbor, and (much like 2005 and last year) the Spartans are probably going to run into the Wolverines when Michigan desperately needs a win (which is pretty much EVERY week this season.)

Wisconsin: toss-up (originally 45 percent)

The home field puts MSU in this game. The meltdown against Michigan tells me they're not quite the team that I thought they were—particularly on offense. I am really starting to like how Michigan State matches up in this game.

Wisconsin is a flawed but good football team that will still finish the year with a nice ranking. I think they will beat Ohio State while at home this weekend but will also continue to play somewhat like mortals while on the road. This could be the Spartans' biggest win of the season (even assuming that they can beat Michigan.)

Purdue: 70 percent chance of W (originally 65 percent)

If Notre Dame moved the ball on Purdue's defense, then anybody can. Michigan State did a fine job of containing Purdue's passing game while playing at Purdue last year, and this season Purdue doesn't have the same veteran crew of receivers.

I originally thought these guys might be the surprise cellar dwellers in the conference. I backed away from that, but now I'm returning to it.

@ Penn State: 30 percent chance of W (originally same)

I'm beginning to think that this game is what stands between Penn State having a perfect regular season and playing for the crystal trophy. I've never liked MSU's chances playing here, and it just looks worse and worse every week. This is the only game on the schedule where I cannot imagine any likely scenario that gets MSU the win.

This is probably the game where a Dantonio-coached Spartan team loses by more than a touchdown.